After the victory: The foreign policy and governing challenges facing Serbia’s student movement

By Ljubiša Ivanović Published on 29 October 2026 - 14:46 GMT+1 Share Comments Add Euronews on Google Share Facebook Twitter Flipboard Send Reddit Linkedin Messenger Telegram VK Bluesky Threads Whatsapp The victory of Serbia’s Student List has fundamentally changed the country’s political landscape. But winning the election may prove to have been the easier part. The movement that emerged from two years of student protests won the elections without a conventional party structure, without a clearly identifiable leader and, for much of the campaign, without revealing who would actually run the country if it won. ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT That ambiguity was one of its greatest political strengths. Now, however, the same ambiguity may become a problem. One of the things that the region, Brussels, Moscow and China will be watching is how the new government positions itself. But there are already fairly clear signals from the leaders of the Students’ List. Russia: No sanctions, but what comes next? One of the clearest positions to emerge so far concerns Russia. Jovo Bakić, sociologist and one of the most prominent figures on the Student List, has explicitly said that a new government would not impose sanctions on Moscow. He described Russia as a historically important partner for Serbia, arguing that sanctions imposed by a small country such as Serbia would have little practical effect while carrying considerable symbolic consequences. Academician of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and professor at the University of Belgrade’s Faculty of Chemistry, Radomir Saičić, told RIA Novosti that the Students’ List does not plan to impose sanctions on Russia. “As we stated in our programme, the Students’ List does not advocate imposing sanctions against Russia,” Saičić said. He noted that Serbia itself had been subjected to sanctions and argued that such measures do not solve problems. “Problems should be resolved through dialogue, negotiations and agreements, not sanctions,” Saičić said. Dejan Šoškić, a candidate on the “Students Win” list, and posible new prime minister said that Serbia must develop good-neighbourly relations with Croatia, while noting that there would probably continue to be significant differences in the general perception of what happened in the 1990s, and that the Students’ List does not concern itself with that issue. In an interview with Index.hr, Šoškić announced better relations with Croatia and the European Union, while he did not answer a question about the new government’s position towards Russia. “The Students’ List advocates full respect for the legal framework in Serbia, including international law. The legal framework in Serbia is therefore quite clear, because the Constitution states that Kosovo and Metohija is an autonomous province of Serbia. On the other hand, key documents of the international legal framework, such as United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244, also affirm this,” Šoškić said. As for the European Union, Šoškić was less definitive. “I believe that Serbia will certainly be in a position to fulfil the EU criteria much more easily and quickly. Whether it will join the European Union at some point after fulfilling all the conditions will depend, among other things, on whether the European Union offers Serbia full membership, as well as on whether, in a referendum at the end of that process, the citizens of Serbia decide in favour of that option,” Šoškić added. Marta Kos’s message to the future government It is already clear that when it comes to Serbia’s relations with Russia, the new government, just like the previous one, has no intention of aligning itself with Brussels’ policy. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos spoke with Ilija Srdanović, the lead candidate of the Students’ List, and immediately stressed that a change of government in Belgrade does not remove the obligation to align with the EU’s foreign and security policy. Brussels has indicated that it will assess the future government’s concrete actions, including on the basis of its relations with Moscow. Marta Kos said that “Serbia will not be able to make significant progress towards EU accession unless it aligns its foreign and security policy with Brussels, including its position on Russia and the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.” The European Commissioner, responding to a question about whether Serbia could become an EU member without joining sanctions against Russia, said that it would be very difficult for a country that does not share the EU’s strategic foreign-policy positions to make progress. “It will probably not be possible for a country that does not align with us on strategic interests — namely foreign and security policy, or our joint opposition to Russia, particularly in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine — to make progress. It will be very, very difficult,” Kos said. The official postition of the Student's list contradicts one of former President Aleksandar Vučić’s central warnings during the campaign: that a Student List victory would eventually mean a dramatic change in Serbia’s policy towards Moscow in terms of imposing sanctions. For now, there is no indication that sanctions against Russia are about to become part of Serbia’s foreign policy. Given the response from the new authorities, we can conclude that it will be business as usual. The Student List’s programme also retains Serbia’s policy of military neutrality and rejects NATO membership. Its position on Kosovo remains firmly opposed to Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence and to its membership of international organisations. You could search with a magnifying glass for any difference in policy towards Kosovo between old and new power in Belgrade, and you would not find one. That elephant will therefore remain in the room when it comes to Serbia’s diplomatic relations with the West. We can expect tensions to ease, along with a shift away from harsh rhetoric and threats, but there will be no fundamental change. This means that the arrival of new government in Belgrade should not automatically be interpreted as a geopolitical realignment in the traditional sense. Professor Radomir Saičić on Kosovo said: "For us, Kosovo is a temporarily occupied territory. Russia has done more to defend Serbia’s territorial integrity in Kosovo and Metohija than this regime has. Fake patriots accuse the students of lacking patriotism, but it was not the students who signed the Brussels and Washington Agreements, nor did they accept the Franco-German plan." A pro-European movement — but a suspicious one The student movement is essentially a “big tent” movement, bringing together people with very different worldviews who were united by their opposition to the rule of Aleksandar Vučić and their criticism of the nature of his government, rather than an ideologically clearly defined alliance. The more likely scenario is a complicated balancing act: closer political and economic cooperation with the European Union, while maintaining military neutrality, avoiding sanctions against Russia and preserving existing energy and diplomatic links with Moscow. That will be difficult. The EU is Serbia’s largest economic partner, while Russia remains important because of energy and, above all, its position on Kosovo. The Student List will therefore have to reconcile two realities that have often been presented as mutually exclusive in Serbian politics. The Student List is very broadly pro-European. But it is not a traditional pro-EU political organisation. Its relationship with Brussels is likely to be considerably more complicated than that of a government simply seeking to accelerate Serbia’s EU accession. The leader of the Students’ List, Dr Ilija Srdanović, spoke most openly about the European Union: “We will remain on the path of European integration. Serbia committed itself to the European integration process back in 2000, 26 years ago. That work will continue. The process will continue. What we can certainly promise, however, is that we will not do what the previous government did: allow public support for European integration in Serbia to fall by 20 percentage points over a period of 15 years. That is the net outcome, the overall result of what the previous government did. We will certainly bring our domestic policies fully into line with Chapters 23 and 24, on the basis of the same civilisational values: respect for the rule of law and equality, anti-corruption measures, the functioning of institutions and media freedom. These chapters are the main obstacle to further progress towards European integration.” The students and many of their supporters are deeply suspicious of the way the European Union dealt with the previous Serbian government. For years, Brussels maintained close relations with Vučić’s administration despite growing concerns over democratic standards, media freedom, the electoral environment and the concentration of political power. Europe has constantly sent Serbia divergent signals. From the past almost two decades the European Parliament has been highly critical, describing Serbia as a “captured state” and sharply criticizing the authorities in all of its reports. The European Commission has been more moderate, alternating between a tougher and a more conciliatory approach, while the European Council has, since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine — and even before that — effectively frozen Serbia’s European integration process. As a result, it is sometimes difficult to discern what Europe’s position towards Serbia actually is. For many people who supported the student movement, the EU’s willingness to cooperate with the SNS government was not a sign of pragmatic diplomacy but evidence that Brussels tolerated authoritarian tendencies in Belgrade for the sake of stability. The Western Balkans: a chance for a reset The regional dimension could prove to be one of the areas where the new government moves fastest. The Student List has signalled that relations with Serbia’s neighbours should be relaxed and that Belgrade should return to a more predictable and less confrontational regional policy. Two issues will be particularly important. On Bosnia and Herzegovina, the movement is expected to insist on respect for the Dayton Peace Agreement and Serbia’s obligations towards the constitutional order established by Dayton. That could mean a less interventionist approach and an attempt to reduce the political temperature between Belgrade and Sarajevo. Given that Milorad Dodik, the de facto leader of the Bosnian Serbs, openly sided with the now-former government and maintained that position for 14 years, it is reasonable to expect that the new government in Belgrade will, at the very least, take a cool stance towards him personally. Similarly, when it comes to Serbs in Croatia, the Erdut Agreement and the rights and political status of the Serbian minority are likely to remain an important reference point. This could potentially represent one of the biggest changes in Serbia’s regional policy: defending the interests of Serbs outside Serbia while simultaneously trying to reduce tensions with neighbouring states. A less confrontational Belgrade could also improve relations with Montenegro, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbian politics has often been perceived both in Podgorica and Sarajevo as unpredictable or excessively interventionist. Hungary: a particularly interesting test Relations with Hungary will be another early test. The previous Serbian government developed an exceptionally close relationship with Viktor Orbán. That relationship was political, economic and personal, and Budapest became one of Belgrade’s most important partners inside the European Union. The arrival of Péter Magyar changes that equation. A Student List government is likely to have a much closer political affinity with Magyar’s European orientation than with Orbán’s model of government. That does not mean Serbia will abandon its economic relationship with Hungary. On the contrary, there are too many practical interests at stake. But the political chemistry will almost certainly play a role. The question is whether Belgrade will seek to build a new relationship with Budapest based less on personal ties between leaders and more on institutional cooperation between two neighbouring European states. China: perhaps the biggest question mark If Russia is the area where the Student List has already given relatively clear signals, China remains considerably less defined. During the Vučić era, Chinese companies became deeply involved in Serbian infrastructure, mining, and industrial projects. Beijing has become an important economic partner, only second to the EU, and many of those investments cannot simply be cancelled by a new government. At the same time, the Student List is likely to face pressure from parts of its electorate to scrutinise Chinese investments more closely — particularly questions concerning transparency, environmental standards, public procurement and the treatment of state-owned Chinese companies. The most probable outcome is therefore not a dramatic break with Beijing. China’s economic presence in Serbia is simply too significant for that. But there could be a transition from politically driven strategic partnership towards a more conventional investment relationship, in which Chinese companies are expected to compete under clearer rules and greater transparency. The movement’s foreign-policy balance may ultimately look less like an ideological choice between East and West and more like an attempt to redefine Serbia’s relationships with Russia, China and the EU on different terms. The problem that comes with power Perhaps the greatest uncertainty, however, has nothing to do with Russia, China or the EU. It is the Student List itself. For almost a year, the movement successfully concealed its internal political architecture. At various points, speculation suggested that the rector of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, might become its political leader. In the end, he was not even a parliamentary candidate. That episode illustrates just how effectively the students have kept their cards close to their chest. The same caution must therefore be applied to current speculation about possible office holders. Informal discussions have mentioned academic and professor Radomir Saičić as a possible presidential candidate, while economist Dejan Šoškić is being mentioned as a possible prime minister. But these names should be treated as political speculation rather than established decisions. The Student List has already demonstrated that it can surprise almost everyone. It may do so again. From movement to government The transformation will nevertheless have to happen quickly. The movement’s decentralised structure was an advantage during the political struggle. Once in government, however, decentralisation can become paralysis. The public will want to know who is responsible for the economy, foreign affairs, defence, the interior, the security services, education and the judiciary. And the state bureaucracy will want instructions. This is where the Student List faces its most dangerous transition: from moral authority to political accountability. During the protests, it was enough to say what needed to change. In government, they will have to decide how. That distinction is enormous. The first signs of change The political earthquake is already shaking institutions beyond parliament. On Wednesday, the public broadcaster RTS Director-General Manja Grčić resigned, just eight months after being appointed. Her resignation followed demands from parts of the RTS workforce, informal employee organisations and the Student List for changes in the management of the public broadcaster. The students have made a radical transformation of Serbia’s media landscape one of their central demands, particularly concerning outlets that are directly or indirectly financed with public money. But the events surrounding the private TV Informer have also demonstrated the danger of a rapid transition. On Monday night, a group of protesters entered the premises of Informer TV, one of the staunchest supporters of the former Vučić's governments. The incident escalated into a confrontation with police outside the building, and workers inside. The Student List subsequently distanced itself from the break-in and called for calm and non-violence. This is an important distinction. Removing political influence from the media is one thing. Replacing one form of political pressure with another would be quite another. The new authorities will therefore be judged not only by whom they remove, but by the rules they establish for everyone who comes afterwards. However, these elections have demonstrated something that media experts have been pointing out for a long time: the role of the media in political developments is greatly overestimated. Compared with the authorities, the students had very limited media exposure, yet they still won a convincing victory. This shows that the government and the opposition were operating in two parallel realities. While the role of the media cannot be entirely dismissed, the elections have demonstrated that traditional media can no longer dictate the narrative. This trend is clearly visible in the United States and many European countries, and Serbia is no exception. There are already calls for changes at the security services, including demands for the resignation of the leadership of Serbia’s intelligence apparatus. Prosecutors have suddenly started pulling “forgotten” cases out of their drawers, and the first arrests have begun. It is highly unlikely that the institutional shake-up will end with the first resignations. The presidential election will provide the next test And Serbia’s political transition will not end with the parliamentary election. Presidential elections are expected before the end of the year, meaning that the Student List must soon answer another fundamental question: who represents the new Serbia? This will force the movement to confront precisely the problem it avoided during its rise. It will have to personalise power. A government cannot be anonymous. Someone must become prime minister. Ministers must be elected, state-owned companies need directors, the security services need new leadership and public institutions need people capable of taking responsibility for decisions. The Student List will therefore have to move with extraordinary speed from a movement into a governing structure. The election victory was achieved by a collective movement whose greatest political asset was that it had no single face. Presidential elections and forming a new Government requires the opposite. A prime minister must negotiate. A president must represent the country abroad. Ministers must make decisions. Somebody must ultimately accept responsibility if, or when those decisions prove unpopular. This will be an equally difficult challenge for Vučić as opposition leader. He can no longer run for president, and his absolute dominance over the Serbian Progressive Party has meant that, over the past 14 years, no one else has been given the opportunity to emerge as the party’s number two. That is why the coming weeks may be more important than the election itself. The Student List has already shown that it knows how to win without revealing its full strategy. Now it has to demonstrate that it knows how to govern without losing the principles that brought it to power. The students spent a year keeping their cards hidden. They now have to show them. And Serbia — as well as the EU, Russia, China and the countries of the Western Balkans — will be watching every card they play. Go to accessibility shortcuts Share Comments Add Euronews on Google Read more Israel: protesters demand Arab-Jewish unity government after election Portugal: Lisbon housing crisis sparks protest outside parliament France: crowds fill Marseille's Old Port in anti-racism protest Government Protest Serbia Comments