AI returns and supply chains among forces shaping tech in 2027

The technology industry will enter 2027 under growing pressure to turn years of heavy investment and rapid innovation into measurable economic and operational returns, according to research firm Omdia. Omdia identified four forces it expects to shape the technology sector next year, covering the shift from AI investment to monetisation, persistent supply chain disruption, digital sovereignty and the expansion of AI into the physical world. AI spending is expected to remain strong, with 59 per cent of organisations forecasting an increase of at least 10 per cent in their AI budgets in 2027. However, enterprises are expected to place greater emphasis on return on investment and productivity gains rather than technological capabilities alone. “The defining technology story of 2027 will not simply be what comes next, but what happens as the investment and innovation of recent years meets economic and operational reality,” said Omdia chief research officer Evan Kirchheimer. “AI needs to demonstrate returns,” he added. Supply chain disruption is also expected to become a persistent feature of the technology industry, rather than a temporary problem, as demand for AI infrastructure combines with component shortages, geopolitical pressures, energy requirements and wider economic uncertainty. Hardware delays are already affecting 60 per cent of PC channel partners, highlighting the operational pressures facing businesses. Omdia also expects digital sovereignty to become increasingly important, with more than 100 countries pursuing initiatives aimed at gaining greater control over data, infrastructure, AI and digital supply chains. However, complete technological independence is unlikely to be practical or necessary for most organisations, forcing businesses to weigh the benefits of greater control against higher costs and complexity. “The perceived imperative of digital sovereignty brings difficult choices around cost and access,” Kirchheimer said. “And as AI moves into the physical world, businesses face an entirely new set of opportunities and responsibilities,” he added. The fourth force is the expansion of physical AI, driven by advances in AI, edge computing, sensors and connected hardware that allow machines to perceive and respond to their surroundings. Global humanoid robot shipments alone are expected to exceed 700,000 units by 2030, while physical AI is also expected to spread across vehicles, buildings, energy infrastructure, workplaces and connected consumer environments. The development will create new questions around governance, safety, liability, integration and trust. “What makes these forces particularly significant is how closely they are becoming connected,” Kirchheimer said. “Decisions made in one area increasingly have consequences elsewhere, making it more important than ever for businesses to understand the wider technology landscape when deciding where to invest and compete,” he added.