Air cargo demand rises 7.7 per cent as fuel costs squeeze carriers

Global air cargo demand rose by 7.7 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, as stronger trade and manufacturing activity supported shipments but sharply higher jet fuel prices put pressure on carriers’ profitability, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said. Demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 7.7 per cent compared with September 2025, with international operations up 8.6 per cent. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), grew by 2.7 per cent over the same period, including a 3.3 per cent increase in international operations. “Air cargo demand rose 7.7 per cent year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. “Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific,” she added. Thomsen said the main challenge was cost, with jet fuel prices more than doubling compared with a year earlier and yields failing to keep pace. “There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging,” she stated. The wider operating environment also remained supportive of air cargo, with global trade rising by 3.6 per cent year-on-year in August and extending its run of consecutive monthly expansions to 42 months. Jet fuel prices climbed by 17.5 per cent month-on-month in September and were 103.4 per cent higher than a year earlier. Global manufacturing activity also strengthened in August, with the Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising 0.7 points to 53.8 and the New Export Orders Index increasing 0.5 points to 51.9. Both indicators reached their highest levels in five years, continuing to provide support for air cargo demand. Asia-Pacific airlines recorded an 8.6 per cent year-on-year increase in cargo demand in September, while capacity rose by 4.9 per cent. North American carriers posted the strongest regional performance, with demand up 11.8 per cent and capacity increasing by 0.8 per cent year-on-year. European carriers saw demand rise by 4.5 per cent, while capacity contracted by 1.6 per cent. Middle Eastern carriers recorded the weakest regional demand growth, at 3.8 per cent, despite capacity increasing by 7.0 per cent. Latin American and Caribbean carriers reported a 6.7 per cent increase in demand and a 7.6 per cent rise in capacity. African airlines saw demand increase by 4.7 per cent, while capacity fell by 1.2 per cent. Performance across major trade lanes remained mixed in September, with Asia-North America recording the strongest growth, followed by traffic within Asia, Europe-North America and Europe-Asia. By contrast, routes linked to the Middle East remained under pressure, with cargo traffic declining on both Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia corridors.