Alpha Bank targets €4bn in shareholder returns under new growth strategy

Alpha Bank unveils five-year strategy targeting €1.4bn profitAlpha Bank has unveiled a five-year strategy targeting more than €4 billion in shareholder distributions or capital deployment by 2030, as the lender seeks to accelerate growth by expanding its services to businesses and households, increasing fee income and strengthening profitability. The plan, called Alpha Accelerated, covers the 2026-2030 period and sets out ambitions to achieve a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of around 16 per cent, annual earnings per share growth of approximately 12 per cent and normalised net profit exceeding €1.4bn by the end of the decade. The strategy was presented at the bank’s 2026 Investor Day, marking what it described as the next phase of its development following the restoration of profitability, balance-sheet resilience and shareholder distributions under its previous plan. “Three years ago, at our 2023 Investor Day, we laid out a clear roadmap to restore Alpha Bank’s profitability, strengthen its balance sheet, and return the Bank to sustainable growth and shareholder distributions,” Alpha Bank chief executive Vassilios Psaltis said. “Today, we can demonstrate that we have delivered on those commitments,” he added. Psaltis said the bank had expanded its capabilities, broadened its product offering, strengthened its presence in key customer segments and established partnerships that enhanced the services it could provide. He said businesses increasingly needed more than financing, including transaction capabilities, treasury solutions, strategic advice and international connectivity, while individuals were seeking guidance on savings, investment, protection and retirement. “Our ambition is to become a more relevant and valuable partner for both businesses and households,” Psaltis said. The strategy is built around two complementary growth engines, Universal Business Bank and Wealth and Personal Banking, designed to deepen customer relationships and increase the range of services used by each client. The business banking division will bring financing, transaction banking, treasury, investment banking, advisory services and international connectivity together through a coordinated relationship. Alpha Bank’s wholesale banking franchise served approximately 4,700 corporate, shipping and small and medium-sized enterprise clients in 2025, with a loan book of €24.4bn. The bank plans to build on this position by combining its capabilities with those of AXIA, connecting financing, strategic advice and access to capital markets. Its partnership with UniCredit is also expected to expand the bank’s international reach, connect Greek businesses to European markets and support foreign companies investing and operating in Greece. For individual customers, the bank aims to move beyond standalone products towards integrated financial planning, combining everyday banking, credit, savings, investment, insurance, retirement and wealth management. The strategy includes making certified financial advice available to more customers, bringing domestic and international wealth services together and using digital tools, data and artificial intelligence to make interactions more personal and timely. Alpha Bank expects the broader offering to increase product penetration and recurring, capital-light income, reducing its reliance on traditional lending spreads. Technology, artificial intelligence and investment in staff are central to the plan, with the bank intending to invest approximately €900 million in technology through 2030. Its artificial intelligence programme targets around €100m in recurring annual value by 2030, through revenue growth and cost efficiencies, while technology delivery improvements are expected to reduce time-to-market by more than 30 per cent. The bank also aims to achieve a 10 to 15 per cent productivity improvement in central operations by 2030, while ensuring all eligible relationship managers obtain financial adviser certification. The strategy is supported by Greece’s multi-year investment cycle, which Alpha Bank expects to benefit from private capital, national and EU funding, job creation and fiscal discipline. The bank’s economic assumptions envisage Greek real GDP growth moderating from 1.9 per cent in 2026 to 1.6 per cent in 2030, inflation declining from 3.8 per cent to 2.1 per cent, policy and market interest rates remaining at 2.5 per cent, and unemployment falling from 8.8 per cent to 7 per cent. Alpha Bank expects normalised earnings per share to reach approximately €0.63 by 2030, compared with around €0.41 in 2026, representing annual growth of approximately 12 per cent, with delivery expected to be front-loaded. Normalised return on tangible equity is projected to rise from approximately 12 per cent in 2026 to 16 per cent in 2030, while return on risk-weighted assets is expected to reach around 3.2 per cent. Net interest income is forecast to reach approximately €2.3bn by 2030, supported by lending growth and an improved asset mix rather than a material increase in interest rates. The bank plans net credit expansion of approximately €3bn annually, largely funded by deposits. Net fee and commission income is expected to increase to around €850m by 2030, representing annual growth of approximately 9 per cent and accounting for 26 per cent of group revenues. Growth is expected to come principally from asset management, corporate payments, business credit-related activity, bancassurance and investment banking. The cost-to-income ratio is projected to improve from 39 per cent in 2026 to approximately 34 per cent in 2030, with operating expenses reaching around €1.1bn while the bank continues investing in technology, products and talent. Normalised profit after tax is expected to exceed €1.4bn by 2030. The bank also aims to maintain a non-performing exposure ratio of around 2 per cent, keep its cost of risk below 50 basis points throughout the plan and reduce it to approximately 45 basis points by 2030. Its liquidity coverage ratio is expected to remain above 160 per cent, while the fully loaded common equity tier one (CET1) capital ratio is targeted at approximately 13 per cent by 2030, after distributions and capital deployment. Alpha Bank also plans to reduce deferred tax credits to below 5 per cent of CET1 capital, from approximately 40 per cent in 2026. The bank expects to generate approximately €7.3bn in capital over the five-year period, with more than €4bn available for distributions or deployment between 2027 and 2030. This includes approximately €2bn in cash dividends and a further €2bn in additional distribution capacity, with the latter potentially taking the form of cash, share buybacks or a combination of both. The ordinary cash dividend is set to rise progressively to 40 per cent of reported net profit by 2028, while additional capital returns will be assessed annually, depending on valuation, shareholder preferences and alternative uses of capital. The bank said capital would first be allocated to preserving resilience, funding attractive organic growth and paying a progressive ordinary dividend, with surplus capital either returned to shareholders or deployed to create value. Selective acquisitions would have to strengthen the strategy, protect the ordinary dividend, outperform the alternative of a share buyback and contribute to earnings per share within two to three years. All distributions remain subject to board and regulatory approvals, delivery of the business plan and market conditions. Psaltis further mentioned that the bank had presented a new identity in October, reflecting an institution that had evolved while remaining rooted in nearly 150 years of history. “Having successfully rebuilt the foundations of the Bank, we have built a stronger Alpha Bank and are now focused on enhancing the strength of our franchise and accelerating the next phase of Alpha Bank’s growth,” he stated.