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Bolsonaro, Lula statistically tied in simulated Brazil runoff, Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows

Cyprus Mail · 2026-09-10

AI SUMMARY

• What happened: A recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are statistically tied in a simulated runoff for the upcoming presidential election, with Bolsonaro at 46.4% and Lula at 46.2%. • Why it matters: This marks a significant shift in polling data, indicating a tightening race as the election approaches, contrasting with Lula's earlier lead in August. • What to watch next: The first round of voting is scheduled for October 4, where Lula is projected to lead, and if no candidate secures over 50% of the votes, a runoff will occur on October 25.

**Bolsonaro, Lula Statistically Tied in Simulated Brazil Runoff, Atlas/Bloomberg Poll Reveals**

In a recent poll conducted by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are reported to be statistically tied in a simulated runoff for the upcoming presidential election. The poll, released on Thursday, indicates that Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, holds a slight lead over the incumbent Lula, with 46.4% of the vote compared to Lula's 46.2%.

This shift in polling data marks a notable change from late August, when Lula had a more substantial lead over Bolsonaro, receiving 47.1% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 42.6%. The new results suggest a tightening race as the election date approaches.

In a first-round voting scenario, which is set to take place on October 4, Lula is projected to lead with 43.0% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 37.4%. Other candidates in the first round include Augusto Cury, who is anticipated to receive 6.6%, and Renan Santos, with a projected 6.5%. This represents a shift from the previous poll, which showed Lula at 43.4% and Bolsonaro at 33.7% in the first round.

Should no candidate secure more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff scheduled for October 25. The AtlasIntel poll surveyed 5,000 individuals between September 4 and September 9, and it carries a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

As the election draws nearer, the dynamics between the candidates are evolving, reflecting the competitive nature of Brazilian politics. Both candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns in the coming weeks as they seek to secure voter support ahead of the critical first round of voting.

Source: Cyprus Mail
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