Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls

SaveSharefacebookxwhatsapp-strokecopylinkSupporters carry a giant figure depicting Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 22, 2026 [Bruna Prado/AP]By Al Jazeera Staff and ReutersPublished On 22 Sep 202622 Sep 2026Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain deadlocked in the latest polls, with the first round of Brazil’s election less than two weeks away.Two new polls on Monday showed that the pair are statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of next month’s election. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro to institute debt ceiling if elected presidentlist 2 of 3What is BRICS Pay, and can it rival the West’s SWIFT payments system?list 3 of 3Brazil’s Lula announces welfare increases ahead of presidential electionend of listLula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil’s president, but faces a challenge from the political right in Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump.Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro speaks at an agribusiness fair as he campaigns in Esteio, Brazil, on September 2, 2026 [Diego Vara/Reuters]The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil’s top electoral court found he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential runoff, versus 41 percent for Lula.Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff.The latest polls mark a narrowing from an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, which put Lula ahead by a wider five-point margin, 44 percent to 39 percent.New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speak to reporters after a meeting in New York on September 21, 2026 [Dave Sanders/Reuters]US pressure looms over electionLula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, casting himself as a defender of Brazilian “sovereignty” as pressure from the US administration looms over the race.The US imposed two fresh rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July, which Lula denounced as an attempt to influence the elections through economic pressure.The Brazilian leader is currently in New York, where he is preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly.Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani for the first time on Monday. In a brief statement to reporters after the meeting, the Brazilian president said the two had talked about problems common to both Brazil and the United States, particularly the rising cost of living.