Business

Burnham warned of Iran war impact on UK growth next year

BBC Business · 2026-08-12

AI SUMMARY

• What happened: Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, has been informed that the UK economy may see minimal growth next year due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with GDP growth potentially dropping to as low as 0.3% in 2027. • Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial waterway for global oil shipments, and the conflict in the region has led to increased oil prices and supply chain disruptions, impacting businesses and the overall UK economy. • What to watch next: Economists are anticipating the release of UK economic data on Thursday, which will provide growth figures for April to June, and policymakers will likely focus on the implications of the Iran conflict on future economic forecasts.

**Burnham Warned of Iran War Impact on UK Growth Next Year**

In a recent briefing, Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has been informed that the UK economy may experience minimal growth next year if the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist until the end of 2026. According to sources within the Treasury, internal economic modelling presented to the new Prime Minister and Chancellor indicates that the UK’s GDP growth could plummet to as low as 0.3% in 2027, a figure first reported by Bloomberg.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has been significantly affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the war involving Iran. This situation has led to increased oil and fuel prices, which in turn has disrupted supply chains across various sectors. The economic ramifications of these disruptions have been felt widely, with many businesses reporting challenges in their operations.

Despite a robust start to the year, the UK economy has seen a slowdown in growth due to these geopolitical tensions. The government has stated that it routinely prepares for various scenarios, indicating that they are closely monitoring the situation and its potential impact on the economy.

As the UK braces for the economic data release on Thursday, which will detail growth figures from April to June of this year, economists are projecting a modest growth rate of 0.4% for that quarter. This figure, while positive, reflects the ongoing uncertainties and challenges faced by the economy in light of external factors.

The potential for continued low growth raises concerns among policymakers and business leaders alike, as they navigate the complexities of a global economy increasingly influenced by geopolitical events. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for economic analysts, who emphasize the need for strategic planning and adaptability in response to these challenges.

As the UK government prepares to address these economic forecasts, the implications of the Iran conflict on domestic growth will likely be a central topic of discussion in the coming months.

Source: BBC Business
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