COP31 to open in Turkey, with climate goals under pressure from war and AI

Representatives from nearly 200 countries will gather on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast on Monday for two weeks of climate talks, as war-driven energy security fears, surging AI power demand and US disengagement put new pressure on the fight against global warming. The US war with Iran has nations scrambling for oil cargoes and firing up coal plants; the rapid rollout of AI is pumping up power demand; and the world’s top historic greenhouse gas emitter is shunning climate cooperation for the second year running. All that has created a challenging backdrop destined to complicate efforts by COP31 host Turkey to land a strong deal, according to observers. “It’s hard to be optimistic,” said John Holdren, a professor of environmental policy at Harvard University. Turkey’s COP31 presidency has centered this year’s UN-sponsored summit on a goal to electrify more than a third of the global economy by 2035, up from around a fifth today. It is asking nations to sign onto a pledge supporting that target. Theoretically, such a goal could help reduce planet-warming emissions by speeding the global shift away from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, furnaces, boilers, cookstoves, and other greenhouse gas-emitting equipment. But climate advocates have criticized the pledge because it does not require that the additional electricity come from low-carbon sources. This has set up an early fight over whether electrification alone should count as climate progress. A coalition of countries, including South Pacific island nations most vulnerable to sea level rise, are pushing more generally for a clearer global roadmap away from fossil fuels – a perennially controversial topic at climate summits. Many oil- and gas-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, argue that fossil fuels can still form a substantial part of the global energy mix in a climate-friendly world, provided they are paired with technologies that reduce or capture emissions. Pressure is mounting for faster action on climate change. A report by the United Nations Environment Programme published in October said the world is already set to overshoot 1.5C of warming above pre-industrial times, the threshold set at the 2015 Paris climate summit. 2026 also stood out with a series of extreme heatwaves across Western Europe and a glacier collapse in Nepal that caused a catastrophic flood that killed more than 1,450 people, with thousands still ​missing. “This year has proven to be one of the years with the highest casualties by the climate-induced disasters,” said Manjeet Dal, an adviser to the Least Developed Country bloc and south Asia director of Climate Analytics. WAR AND TECH The Iran war has underscored the world’s attachment to fossil fuels, as has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions on Moscow’s energy exports. Some say disruptions from the wars have also clarified the benefits of turning to renewables. The Iran war, now in its ninth month, severely disrupted Middle East oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting fuel prices around the globe and leading governments to scramble for new supplies. US President Donald Trump’s administration has encouraged policies maximizing oil, gas, and coal production to address the Mideast disruptions. South Korea, India, Thailand and other Asian nations, meanwhile, have increased their reliance on coal or taken steps to boost coal-fired power generation. “A lot of people who previously might have been embarrassed to argue for continuing very high use of fossil fuel are now feeling empowered to make that case,” said Holdren of Harvard. At the same time, the deployment of renewable energy has also risen, driven by surging exports of cheap clean tech from China, cheering advocates for ambitious climate action. “The war has strengthened the case for accelerating the energy transition. The United States is something of an outlier in this regard,” said Andre Correa do Lago, a Brazilian diplomat who presided over last year’s COP. AI has also added a wrinkle. The technology’s rapid rollout is driving a surge in global power demand, contributing to rising greenhouse gas emissions. But its benefits are proving irresistible, even to climate and environment activist groups. COP31 host Turkey will call on governments, businesses and other institutions at the conference to sign a pledge outlining principles to ensure AI is developed and deployed sustainably. Business advocates said they want just one thing from COP31: clarity. “Delivery cannot remain a slogan or be left to voluntary initiatives,” said John Denton, the secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce. “COP31 must send clear policy signals that give businesses the confidence to invest in electrification and the wider energy transition — and turn adaptation needs into bankable projects.”