Cyprus problem: Is this time really different?

First coined by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and adopted frequently by Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman ever since, the phrase “this time must be different” has become one of the Cyprus problem’s stock phrases ever since hope of renewed progress abounded after the latter’s election in October last year. The culmination of that abounding hope was, thus far, Guterres’ first and likely last visit to the island this week, with that visit having been preceded and since succeeded by intense diplomatic traffic both on the island and abroad, all with the stated aim of bringing about a resumption of negotiations in earnest. Guterres’ 48 hours on the island produced a result of sorts, that being the promise that a fresh enlarged meeting on the Cyprus problem will be convened “after adequate progress” is achieved on the matters of confidence-building measures, the meeting’s methodology, and the substance of the talks. However, at the same time, it fell short of producing something more tangible and immediate, with talks over the potential opening of a new crossing point stalling over whether or not to break up the package of four crossing points agreed upon by all sides at the most recent enlarged meeting in New York last year. On this matter, the Greek Cypriot side proposed removing Louroujina, northwest of Larnaca, from the package of four, instead opening crossing points near Athienou, and in the eastern Nicosia suburbs of Mia Milia and Aglandjia, and the Turkish Cypriot side flatly refused to entertain any discussions which did not include all four agreed upon locations. Progress, therefore, gave Fikri Toros, the man who, if polling is to believed, may soon replace Tahsin Ertugruloglu as the man responsible for the Turkish Cypriot authorities’ foreign affairs brief, grounds to believe that while matters are far from certain, this time could be different to previous attempts to solve the Cyprus problem. “I believe this moment has the potential to be different, but only if we recognise that the geopolitical landscape around Cyprus has evolved more profoundly than at any other time since the collapse of the 2017 Crans-Montana conference,” he told the Sunday Mail. He added that the eastern Mediterranean is no longer viewed by international actors “solely through the lens of the Cyprus problem”, but has instead “become central to regional stability, energy security and the evolving strategic relationship between the European Union and Turkey”. On this front, he warned that a lack of progress on the Cyprus problem could prove “increasingly detrimental to potential regional cooperation”, particularly in the fields of security and energy. To this end, he explained that the “prevailing regional security and energy architecture”, with disruptions in energy supply and an altered geopolitical balance in the region as a result of the ongoing conflicts, in fact “create an opportunity which did not exist to the same extent in previous negotiation process”. This, he said, is because it “significantly strengthens the incentives for all parties to support a comprehensive and sustainable settlement”. He added that Guterres “obviously recognises this situation”, with Guterres himself having said at the conclusion of his visit to the island on Wednesday that the region surrounding Cyprus is “largely in flames” testament to that. Additionally, Toros said, Guterres’ decision to only hold an enlarged meeting after “adequate progress” is achieved “demonstrates that the prospective process can no longer afford to fall victim to entrenched positions, nor become another open-ended dialogue”. “If formal negotiations are to resume, they must be politically meaningful and focused on achieving concrete progress, built upon all the convergences reached by the 2017 Crans-Montana conference and the body of work,” he said. Regarding Erhurman’s position on what “this time must be different” means, he said that “I understand this not only as a call for renewed negotiations, but also for a fundamentally different approach, offering genuine commitment and assurances to a conclusive process”. “The ultimate objective must be a comprehensive settlement, aligned with all relevant UN security council resolutions and parameters; that is a bizonal and bicommunal federation with political equality. Such a settlement wold not only resolve our decades-long political conflict, but also unlock Cyprus’ potential to become the nucleus of regional peace, stability, and shared prosperity in the eastern Mediterranean,” he said. His reference to UN parameters is timely, too, with all sides now having expressed their support for them in recent days. Greece’s foreign ministry, for example, said on Wednesday that “the resolution of the Cyprus problem, within the parameters set by the United Nations security council, and the reunification of the island remain a firm goal”. Likewise, Turkey’s ruling AK Party’s spokesman Omer Celik said that “these issues will continue to be discussed on the basis of diplomacy and the United Nations’ parameters”. Asked whether, given this coalescence, the planned enlarged meeting may come about before the conclusion of Guterres’ term at the end of this year, he said that there is a “realistic prospect” of such a meeting being convened but stressed that “it should not be regarded as a given”. In this, he made reference to Guterres’ call for “adequate progress” to be made, before saying that while Guterres’ attention to Cyprus is “encouraging”, equally so is “the evolving international context”. “The growing strategic convergence between the European Union and Turkey, together with heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean, has reinforced the importance and urgency of stability in Cyprus,” he said. He added that this “creates an environment in which renewed diplomatic engagement services not only the interests of the two Cypriot communities, but also those of the wider region”. As such, he said he is “cautiously optimistic” about the next steps and said that there exists a “window of opportunity” for progress to be achieved, “such windows of opportunity do not remain open indefinitely”. Then asked whether there is common ground between the two sides and the two leaders, President Nikos Christodoulides and Erhurman, he said that he now believes that there is “sufficient common ground for negotiations to resume in earnest”. “Yet, there has to be a shared commitment to engage within the body of work established throughout the United Nations-led negotiation process,” he said. On this front, he stressed that “it is important to note the link and the difference between common ground and comprehensive political agreement”. “No peace process begins with agreement on every substantive issue. What matters is whether there is sufficient convergence to justify resumption of structured negotiations. In the case of Cyprus, I believe decades of negotiations have procured a substantial body of convergences on governance, property, economy, European Union affairs, and many other aspects of the prospective comprehensive settlement,” he said. He added that the convergences reached thus far “must be regarded as valuable diplomatic capital” and must not be “discarded or revisited”. “The real challenge today is not the absence of sufficient convergence, but the restoration of political confidence. This is precisely why the secretary-general has emphasised confidence-building measure, methodology, and substance as prerequisites for convening a broadened meeting,” he said. He also stressed that “there is a growing awareness, both locally as well as internationally and regionally, that the status quo is not static, hence becoming increasingly unsustainable”. This has been seen in recent months and years with an increased militarisation of the island, and with planned infrastructure projects, particularly in the field of energy, looking likely to change the nature of the island’s relations with its neighbours, while, with ongoing conflicts in the region, the nature of those neighbours, too, is transforming. In line with this, Toros said that the cost, both political and financial, of an ongoing unresolved political situation in Cyprus “are no longer confined to the two Cypriot communities”, but instead “increasingly affect regional stability, European strategic interests, and the ful potential of cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean”. “This changing reality should encourage all parties to approach negotiations with renewed pragmatism,” he said, before adding that “ultimately, the question is whether there is sufficient political will and courage to build upon the common ground that already exists”. “If the parties demonstrate that commitment, I believe meaningful negotiations can resume with a genuine prospect of a comprehensive political agreement,” he said.