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Denmark expects Russia to escalate hybrid warfare in coming months, intelligence service says

Cyprus Mail · 2026-09-24

AI SUMMARY

• What happened: Denmark's defence intelligence service warned that Russia is likely to escalate its hybrid warfare tactics against Western nations, particularly following Germany's accusations of Russia's involvement in a drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport. • Why it matters: The anticipated increase in hybrid warfare and sabotage operations poses significant risks to NATO countries and has prompted discussions among EU members about imposing new sanctions against Russia. • What to watch next: Monitor Russia's military activities and potential cyberattacks, as well as NATO and EU responses to the evolving threat landscape in Europe.

**Denmark Warns of Potential Escalation in Russian Hybrid Warfare**

Copenhagen, Denmark – In a recent threat assessment released on Thursday, Denmark’s defence intelligence service has indicated that Russia is likely to escalate its hybrid warfare tactics against Western nations in the coming months. This assessment follows heightened concerns regarding Russia’s activities in Europe, particularly in light of Germany's recent accusations linking Russia to an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport.

The Danish intelligence report highlights an expected increase in hybrid warfare and sabotage operations targeting NATO countries. The report notes that the recent drone incident has prompted discussions among European Union member states regarding the imposition of new sanctions against Russia. Despite these allegations, the Russian government has consistently denied any involvement in hybrid warfare or sabotage operations within NATO territories.

According to the Danish defence intelligence service, the anticipated increase in attacks will have "greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past." The report outlines a "low but growing risk" that Russia may conduct a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries that share a border with Russia. Such a move, the report suggests, would represent a desperate measure on Russia's part and could coincide with an uptick in hybrid attacks.

Intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel elaborated on the potential nature of these attacks during a press conference. He indicated that Russia might employ isolated strikes using long-range weapons, such as drones or missiles, aimed at critical infrastructure supporting Ukraine. Additionally, he warned of the possibility of false-flag operations involving Ukrainian-made drones, which could be used to justify further military actions.

Ahrenkiel also raised concerns about the potential deployment of Russian troops into NATO border areas under the guise of protecting Russian-speaking minorities. He emphasized that the objective of such actions would not be to annex territory but rather to create divisions within NATO.

The report comes in the wake of a recent incident involving a Russian frigate, which reportedly fired two flares at a Danish military helicopter operating in international waters off the coast of Denmark. One of the flares narrowly missed the aircraft, raising alarms about the aggressive posturing of Russian military forces in the region.

In a related development, the Danish Resilience Agency has indicated a heightened threat level regarding potential cyberattacks from Russia. The agency expressed concerns that Russia may attempt to conduct destructive cyber operations against Denmark, further underscoring the multifaceted nature of the threats posed by the Kremlin.

As tensions continue to rise in Europe, Denmark's warning serves as a reminder of the precarious security landscape in the region. The potential for increased hybrid warfare and military provocations from Russia is likely to be a focal point for NATO and EU member states as they navigate their responses to these evolving threats.

The Danish intelligence service's assessment reflects broader concerns among Western nations regarding Russia's intentions and capabilities, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. As the situation develops, the international community will be closely monitoring Russia's actions and the implications for regional stability and security.

Source: Cyprus Mail
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