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El Nino set to be most intense ‘for over a century’: UK forecasters

Al Jazeera · 2026-08-21

AI SUMMARY

• What happened: UK forecasters predict that the upcoming El Niño event in 2026 could be the most intense in over a century, with expected sea surface temperature increases exceeding 3 degrees Celsius. • Why it matters: This unprecedented warming is likely to lead to extreme weather conditions globally, including droughts, high temperatures, and intense rainfall, exacerbating existing climate challenges and impacting millions. • What to watch next: As the El Niño event unfolds, attention will be on its effects in various regions, particularly in the Tropics and Europe, and the need for governments to implement effective climate adaptation strategies.

**Title: UK Forecasters Warn of Historic El Niño Event Expected in 2026**

**Date: August 21, 2026**

United Kingdom forecasters have issued a stark warning regarding the El Niño phenomenon, predicting that the event expected this year could be the most intense in over a century. The UK Met Office has highlighted that this El Niño will likely lead to a range of extreme weather conditions, including droughts, high temperatures, and intense rainfall across various regions.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which significantly influence global weather patterns. Typically, El Niño events result in sea surface temperature increases of 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). However, forecasts for the 2026 event suggest a record increase of more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in the coming months.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the current El Niño signal as unprecedented, stating, “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.” He emphasized that if the predicted temperature spike occurs, 2026 will surpass previous experiences of El Niño and its global climate impacts.

The chief forecaster further noted that a three-degree rise in sea surface temperatures is “unheard-of in modern climate records.” Such extreme warming is expected to exacerbate existing climate challenges, as governments worldwide are already contending with significant climate events this year.

In Indonesia, wildfires have devastated over 200,000 hectares (494,200 acres), while parts of southwestern Europe have faced severe wildfires, leading to the displacement of approximately 325,000 people in Spain and France. Other regions are grappling with severe drought conditions, underscoring the urgent need for preparedness as the El Niño event unfolds.

The Met Office predicts that the effects of El Niño will bring wetter and stormier conditions to northwestern Europe, including the UK, as autumn and winter approach in the Northern Hemisphere. Scaife indicated that particularly strong impacts are anticipated throughout the Tropics, with severe droughts expected in areas such as South America and the West Pacific.

In the UK, the summer of 2026 has already seen record-breaking temperatures, with the hottest day of the year recorded in mid-August when temperatures in west London reached 38.1 degrees Celsius (100.5 degrees Fahrenheit). This surpassed the previous high of 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded in June.

The Met Office has also warned that the combination of the El Niño phenomenon and ongoing human-induced climate change is likely to result in 2027 being the hottest year on record globally. As nations brace for the potential impacts of this historic El Niño event, the need for effective climate adaptation strategies and emergency preparedness has never been clearer.

As the situation develops, governments and communities worldwide are urged to stay informed and take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of this unprecedented climate event.

Source: Al Jazeera
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