**Elderly Population Surpasses Young Children for the First Time in History, Census Report Reveals**
In a groundbreaking demographic shift, the global elderly population has officially surpassed the number of young children for the first time in recorded history, according to a recent report by the US Census Bureau. The findings, outlined in the report titled "An Aging World: 2025," reveal that individuals aged 65 and older accounted for 10.5% of the global population in 2025, exceeding the number of children aged five and younger.
This significant demographic change is particularly pronounced in Europe, which is already recognized as the world's oldest region. The report attributes this trend to a combination of increased life expectancy and declining birth rates, factors that have been shaping population dynamics across the globe.
The Census Bureau highlights a concerning trend known as a "fertility trap," which occurs when sustained fertility rates fall below the replacement level. As a result, the number of potential parents diminishes over time. Current data indicates that approximately 132 million babies are born worldwide each year, a decrease from a peak of around 142 million in the early 2010s. Notably, Africa accounted for about 47 million births in 2024, emphasizing a growing disparity in birth rates across different regions.
In Europe, the decline in birth rates has been particularly stark. The European Union recorded just 3.55 million births in 2024, nearly half of the 6.8 million births reported in 1964. The EU's fertility rate has now reached a record low of 1.34 children per woman, further contributing to the aging population.
The demographic shift is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. The global population is projected to increase by more than 2 billion by 2060, while the number of individuals aged 65 and older is anticipated to rise by approximately 1.15 billion. By that time, the elderly are expected to account for 19.6% of the global population, up from 10.5% today. In Europe, this figure is projected to climb from 21% to nearly 31%.
This demographic transition poses significant challenges for governments, particularly in terms of financial sustainability. With a shrinking workforce and a growing number of retirees, there will be increased pressure on government budgets. The Census Bureau estimates that in OECD countries, government healthcare spending is expected to rise by 2.6% of GDP over the next decade, significantly outpacing the projected 1.3% growth in government revenues.
At the same time, European governments are facing competing demands as they ramp up military spending in response to perceived threats, particularly from Russia. EU defense expenditure is projected to reach €454 billion this year, reflecting an increase of approximately 75% since 2021. The OECD has warned that higher military budgets will force governments to make difficult decisions regarding spending priorities, especially in countries with high levels of debt such as Belgium, France, Italy, and the UK.
The interplay between rising military expenditures and growing pension and healthcare costs is already influencing political decisions across Europe. For instance, Belgium has implemented tighter pension and welfare regulations, while Germany is increasing its debt to support military enhancements. In France, non-defense spending is being constrained, and in the UK, the Conservative government has proposed welfare cuts to fund an additional £10 billion ($13.5 billion) in military spending, which includes reductions in housing support and the restoration of a cap on child benefits.
As the world grapples with this unprecedented demographic shift, the implications for social services, economic stability, and political landscapes will be profound. The balance between supporting an aging population and addressing the needs of younger generations will be a critical challenge for policymakers in the years to come.