By Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
By Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
This past election day did deliver one bombshell: Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat in Serbia’s snap parliamentary elections. Hardly anyone seems to have seriously expected that. Calling the election was a gamble, of course, but he still had reason to believe he could pull it off.
The reasons will take time to untangle. Vucic himself spoke of a “revolution” backed by Europe. Others, with some justification, see an “Orban scenario”: accumulated fatigue with one man’s prolonged rule, during which his personal traits and interests came to exert too much influence over national policy.
Clearly, more than one factor was at work. Just as clearly, Serbia is entering a new era. Vucic’s increasingly elaborate and convoluted balancing act will likely give way to an attempt to steer the country sharply toward the European Union. Hungary’s experience is telling in this respect. And Russia should expect little good to come of it.
Serbian society, however, is different from Hungary’s. There really is considerable sympathy for Russia. Whether that sentiment can rally a new opposition, this time against a firmly pro-EU course, should become clear soon enough. The EU will try to make the most of the defeat of yet another set of “pro-Russian forces.” Whether that will bring Serbia any closer to EU membership is another question entirely.
Whatever the outcome, if there is a common thread running through elections across Europe, it is probably this: people in different countries are disillusioned with the status quo and the establishment, whatever its political stripe – even when those establishments stand at opposite ends of the spectrum.
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