Expert does not rule out resumption of steady oil supplies through Hormuz by early August

Strait of Hormuz developmentsExpert does not rule out resumption of steady oil supplies through Hormuz by early August According to Alexey Belogoryev, uncertainty on the market persists because of the situation surrounding US-Iran negotiations, although market participants have already partially adapted to geopolitical risksMOSCOW, June 30. /TASS/. Steady supplies of oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz could resume by early August if there is no further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance Alexey Belogoryev told TASS. "Supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a high level for literally two days and then began to collapse again. Vessel traffic in the opposite direction, that is, into the Persian Gulf, remains extremely limited in terms of the number of ships. So, the restoration of steady oil and petroleum product supplies is still quite far away. Most likely, this can only be achieved by early August, provided there are no further disruptions," Belogoryev said. According to him, uncertainty on the market persists because of the situation surrounding US-Iran negotiations, although market participants have already partially adapted to geopolitical risks. Against this backdrop, the expert expects Brent crude prices to remain above $70 per barrel in the coming months and fluctuate primarily within the $70-77 per barrel range. "It is still too early to say that the market is about to return to balance. The situation remains complicated," he added. Belogoryev noted that, in his assessment, oil prices will remain above $70 until a final peace agreement is reached in the Middle East, after which they could decline to around $65 per barrel. Meanwhile, Alexander Frolov, editor-in-chief of the Infotek information and analytical portal, believes that forecasts regarding oil prices are premature. According to him, even after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it will take months for global supplies to recover, as time will be needed not only for already loaded tankers to complete their voyages, but also for oil production in Persian Gulf countries to recover. "Even if a full-fledged negotiation process continues now, and even if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and shipping through the strait is finally restored, will this immediately mean that the market will be saturated with the required volumes of oil? No," the expert said. He explained that already loaded tankers will need from two to four weeks to reach consumers, while restoring production in Persian Gulf countries could take from three to six months, according to existing estimates. At the same time, 70% of halted production could be resumed within three months. The number of commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has been declining for the third consecutive day after reaching a peak of 54 vessels on June 25. These conclusions are based on TASS calculations using vessel traffic data. On average, before March 2026, approximately 100-120 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day. Following the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran, traffic through the strait was restricted for security reasons, with only about 10 vessels per day transiting the waterway. 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