Experts do not expect oil to remain above $90 per barrel in near term

World oil pricesExperts do not expect oil to remain above $90 per barrel in near term For prices to remain above $90 per barrel, the market would require truly significant eventsMOSCOW, July 22. /TASS/. Brent crude is expected to trade in the $80-90 per barrel range over the next month, while a sustained move above $90 would require major disruptions in the market, experts interviewed by TASS said. "We believe the baseline scenario for the next month is that Brent will fluctuate within a broad range of around $80-90 per barrel. For prices to remain above $90 per barrel, the market would need more than just alarming headlines - it would require truly significant events, such as strikes on oil infrastructure, a prolonged disruption of shipping routes, or substantial supply interruptions," analyst at Finam Financial Group Alexander Potavin said. According to Potavin, if tensions in the Middle East ease, reducing risks to oil transportation, prices could quickly return to a more stable range of $70-80 per barrel. "Despite a number of irreconcilable differences between the parties, mediators are making considerable efforts, and the United States and Iran could once again reach a ceasefire agreement," he added. Kirill Bakhtin, head of the Russian Equities Research Center at BCS World of Investments, said a sharp increase in oil prices in the short term is possible if military confrontation intensifies or if the United States begins preparations for a full-scale ground deployment in the Middle East. "Our forecast for the average Brent price in 2026 is $89 per barrel. By the end of the year, we could see prices at $70-71 per barrel under our baseline scenario, which assumes the conflict comes to an end," the analyst added. Market outlook Potavin noted that, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea, global oil, petroleum products, and LNG markets could face a full-scale energy crisis as early as this fall if there are no significant changes in the conflict between the United States and Iran. "In the spring, major oil-consuming countries could afford to wait out the conflict by reducing crude purchases and relying on domestic reserves. However, oil inventories have now declined significantly, and consumers may no longer be able to sustain a prolonged reduction in purchases," the analyst said. He added that under such a scenario, a full-scale energy crisis could emerge, with oil prices climbing to around $120 per barrel. However, no one would benefit from such an outcome because high oil prices would ultimately reduce demand. 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