From regime change to regime deal? How Tehran's political camps are reacting to leaked US-Iran deal

By Babak Kamiar Published on 17/06/2026 - 16:57 GMT+2•Updated 16:58 Share Comments Add Euronews on Google Share Facebook Twitter Flipboard Send Reddit Linkedin Messenger Telegram VK Bluesky Threads Whatsapp Iran's hardliners have framed the framework deal as a victory, even as Trump dismissed reports of a $300bn reconstruction fund and warned he would resume strikes if Tehran did not comply. Iran's hardline establishment is framing the US-Iran framework deal as proof that Tehran outlasted Washington rather than as a concession, even as questions persist over how much control the IRGC exercised over its terms. ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT IRGC's Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani made his first public appearance in months on Monday night to discuss the deal, telling Iranian state television that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait "is fully in the hands of the guys in Hezbollah, the (Houthis) in Yemen, and even some of the comrades and children of resistance who are not Yemeni." The remark on Bab-al Mandeb — which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — signalled a warning that Tehran's regional network retains leverage over a separate global shipping route even as the Hormuz blockade is lifted. The Quds Force — IRGC's intelligence and asymmetrical warfare branch — is the main architect of the Axis of Resistance, a network of armed groups across the Middle East, including Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq that Tehran finances, arms and directs. Meanwhile, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed for months that IRGC top commander Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle have used Iran's claimed control over Hormuz to entrench the IRGC's domestic power, including over rivals such as parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and to shape the country's broader negotiating posture. Vahidi is reportedly directly opposed to Iran's political leadership, which pushed for a swift agreement to end the war and reopen blockaded shipping lanes in the hope of reviving the economy, while the IRGC — which controls Iran's military presence in the Strait of Hormuz — resisted and prevailed in each instance of disagreement. 'Full-scale hybrid war' For Iran's hardliners, the memorandum is likely to be presented domestically as a strategic victory — evidence that the Islamic Republic survived the war and forced Washington to negotiate. That narrative is not shared evenly across Iran's political spectrum. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, called the memorandum "unbalanced" and said Iran's red lines had not all been respected. "We are in a full-scale hybrid war, and we must use this opportunity to become stronger," he said in a televised interview. The reaction comes at a sensitive moment, as Iran prepares official funeral ceremonies for late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the US-Israeli airstrikes in the opening salvo of the war on 28 February. State-run media are expected to emphasise that the document contains no provisions on regime change, political reform, or Iran's domestic governance, instead focusing on clauses requiring both sides to respect each other's sovereignty. Sanctions relief, the resumption of oil exports, the release of frozen assets and the reopening of maritime traffic are likely to be presented as proof that Iran extracted major economic concessions without conceding its political structure. Iranian state media have already reported that three Iranian oil tankers carrying a combined 5 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz after Trump announced the lifting of the US naval blockade. 'Any deal will ultimately fail' Even among hardliners, support for the deal has not translated into trust in Washington. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, criticised Iranian negotiators for failing to publish the memorandum themselves, forcing Iranians to learn its contents from US media, and called for parliamentary review before it proceeds. The agreement also complicates the position of exiled opposition figures who had hoped sustained pressure might weaken or topple the Islamic Republic. US Vice President JD Vance moved to dispel that expectation directly. "Trump never said that his goal was to install Reza Pahlavi to become the new leader of Iran," he said. "What we want is a cessation of their nuclear program." Pahlavi, the most prominent opposition figure abroad, rejected the deal outright. "Any deal with this regime will ultimately fail," he told ITV News. "It can never be trusted. It will continue to blackmail the world, brave, innocent Iranians, and spread terror and instability in the region and internationally." US President Donald Trump, for his part, has stressed the framework deal — meant to be followed up by 60 days of further negotiations to design a final agreement between the two sides — remains only a memorandum of understanding. "And if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head," Trump said. The agreement is now expected to be signed not in Geneva but at Switzerland's Bürgenstock Hotel, a venue often used for high-level diplomacy. Related Iran declares victory and Israel holds its ground as US framework deal faces first testIran pledges no nuclear weapons as US commits $300bn, leaked deal draft shows Trump has sent further mixed signals of his own. Speaking alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, he dismissed reports that the deal included a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. "That's false," he said. "We are not investing 10 cents," repeating that the arrangement remained conditional. "If they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head," Trump added. Israeli officials have been openly critical of the deal's rushed nature, warning that it could strengthen Tehran's position — a stance likely to weigh heavily on the agreement's survival of the 60-day negotiating window that follows. Go to accessibility shortcuts Share Comments Add Euronews on Google Read more Read the full text of the leaked 14-point US-Iran draft agreement Iran pledges no nuclear weapons as US commits $300bn, leaked deal draft shows Iranian oil tankers pass US blockade ahead of peace deal signing ceremony Iran war Mojtaba Khamenei Donald Trump Iran nuclear deal Iran and Usa