**Half of Germans Expect Merz to be Out by Year-End – Poll**
A recent YouGov survey has revealed that nearly half of the German population anticipates Chancellor Friedrich Merz will leave office by the end of 2026. The poll, conducted on September 17, indicates that 48% of respondents believe Merz will not remain in his position, while only 31% think he will continue as chancellor, and 21% remain undecided.
The findings come at a challenging time for Merz, whose approval ratings have plummeted to record lows just 16 months into his chancellorship. Since taking office, Merz has faced significant hurdles, including coalition disputes and difficulties in implementing promised economic reforms. A separate poll conducted by the Forsa research institute in August revealed that a mere 13% of respondents expressed satisfaction with his performance, while a staggering 85% reported dissatisfaction. More recently, another poll indicated his approval rating has dipped to 10%, with 88% of the public dissatisfied.
The dissatisfaction among the electorate is largely attributed to ongoing economic challenges, stalled reforms, and criticism regarding Merz's focus on foreign and defense policies. Germany has experienced three consecutive years of economic stagnation and recession, although there was a slight GDP growth of 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Despite this modest recovery, investment levels have continued to decline, and household consumption remains largely unchanged.
In July, Merz's coalition government approved a comprehensive 34-point economic reform package that included austerity measures, tax cuts, changes to pension schemes, and stricter sick-leave regulations. However, this package has faced public backlash and intensified pressure on the coalition. Merz has also prioritized defense initiatives, pledging to establish what he describes as the "strongest conventional army in Europe" in response to perceived threats from Russia, a claim that has been dismissed by Moscow.
The political landscape has further deteriorated following a significant defeat for Merz's coalition against the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the recent Saxony-Anhalt state election. With critical elections scheduled in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is expected to gain ground, discussions of a potential "Kanzlertausch" or "chancellor swap" have gained traction in German media. Reports suggest that speculation regarding Merz's replacement has been circulating within his political faction for several months.
Media outlets such as Politico and Der Spiegel have outlined various scenarios for Merz's future, including the possibility of a voluntary resignation, a constructive vote of no confidence, or Merz calling a confidence vote himself. However, they note that removing him against his will could prove challenging under Germany's Basic Law, which stipulates that the Bundestag can only oust a chancellor if a successor is simultaneously elected.
Potential successors have been discussed, but no clear consensus candidate has emerged capable of garnering support from both the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) and their coalition partner, the Social Democrats. Behind the scenes, senior figures within the CDU/CSU are reportedly positioning themselves for a potential succession battle. According to Der Spiegel, eastern CDU lawmakers are inclined to support CSU leader Markus Söder, while their western counterparts favor Hendrik Wüst from North Rhine-Westphalia. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has also been mentioned as a possible compromise candidate.
In light of the upcoming elections and growing pressure on his leadership, Merz has summoned the CDU leadership to Berlin for a meeting on Sunday, where he will likely face scrutiny regarding his position. Additionally, he has canceled a planned trip to New York for the upcoming UN General Assembly, with a German official stating that "his presence is required" in Berlin. Analysts interpret this decision as indicative of the precariousness of Merz's situation at home as he navigates a tumultuous political landscape.
As the political climate continues to evolve, the outcome of the forthcoming elections may play a critical role in determining Merz's future and the stability of his government.