**Hormuz Shipping Slows to a Trickle as Gulf Tensions Persist**
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has seen a significant decline in vessel traffic amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. Recent shipping data indicates that only a dozen commodity vessels transited the strait over the weekend, a sharp decrease from 35 vessels the previous weekend.
This decline in visible maritime activity highlights the impact of the current geopolitical climate in the Gulf region, where a stalemate persists between US and Iranian forces. The Strait of Hormuz is historically known for facilitating the passage of approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, making its operational status crucial for global energy markets.
Despite the reduced traffic through the strait, Middle Eastern oil producers continue to export their products. However, many tankers are reportedly navigating with their transponders turned off, making it difficult to track all movements accurately. According to provisional data from analytics firm Kpler, on Sunday, four vessels, including two tankers carrying refined oil products and two empty carriers for bulk goods and gas, exited the strait. Additionally, two small-sized oil tankers entered the Gulf.
The situation was somewhat busier on Saturday, when five vessels left the Gulf carrying various commodities, including agricultural products, liquefied petroleum gas, and fertilizer. An empty very large gas carrier also made its way into the strait that day.
Before the escalation of tensions following the outbreak of conflict between the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically accommodated around 125 large commercial vessels daily, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container ships. The current traffic levels indicate a stark contrast to these pre-war figures.
In response to regional disruptions, particularly attacks by the Houthi movement on Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia has adjusted its export strategies. The state energy firm has increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after previously halting some exports via Yanbu. This shift has allowed Saudi crude exports to recover to over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, a notable rebound from a low of 2.4 million bpd in August, which represented the lowest level of exports since at least 2013.
Kpler's data reveals that in the week of September 13, a total of 13 tankers, primarily very large crude carriers, transported approximately 34 million barrels of crude oil out of the strait. Saudi Arabia accounted for about half of these exports, while Iraq contributed around 35% of the total volume.
Analysts from JPMorgan noted that despite the disruptions caused by the attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Middle Eastern oil flows have remained surprisingly robust. They reported that total oil flows in the region averaged 17.1 million bpd over the past ten days, only slightly below the anticipated average for 2025. Notably, satellite data indicated that Saudi oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million bpd over the past six days, a significant increase from just 700,000 bpd in August.
As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the implications for global oil markets and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain significant. The ongoing tensions in the Gulf underscore the vulnerability of this vital maritime corridor, which plays a critical role in the stability of energy supplies worldwide.