IEA expects decline in global oil supply in 2026, but slightly improves forecast

IEA expects decline in global oil supply in 2026, but slightly improves forecast Global supply is projected to fall by 3.7 million bpd this year to 102.6 million bpdMOSCOW, July 10. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly raised its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 0.2 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to its previous outlook, according to the organization's latest report. Consequently, global supply is projected to fall by 3.7 million bpd this year to 102.6 million bpd. The IEA noted that as oil transit in the Middle East recovers, global supply could increase by 7.5 million bpd in 2027, reaching 110.1 million bpd. According to the agency's estimates, global oil deliveries rose by 4.1 million bpd in June to 98.8 million bpd, as Persian Gulf countries began restoring production following the US-Iran agreement. OPEC+ countries accounted for more than half of this growth, the IEA added. As negotiations over the management of the Strait of Hormuz continue, risks to the IEA's supply forecast remain. The agency noted that oil transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz surged at the end of June, with crude and condensate shipments rising to 13.2 million bpd--recovering more than 70% from pre-conflict levels. This increase was driven by the release of accumulated stockpiles. As the agency notes, a sharp escalation of hostilities in early July caused shipments to grind to a near-halt. Recovery will depend on a de-escalation of fighting and improved security in the Strait of Hormuz to support the resumption of tanker traffic. 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