IN BRIEF: Nabiullina’s statements on key rate, fuel market, attacks on marketplaces

IN BRIEF: Nabiullina’s statements on key rate, fuel market, attacks on marketplaces The Bank of Russia will consider the situation regarding the reduction of production capacity when making decisions on the key rate© Alexander Shcherbak/TASSMOSCOW, July 24. /TASS/. It is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike as circumstances may change, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference following the regulator’s board meeting on monetary policy. The Bank of Russia sees the government taking measures to stabilize the situation in the fuel market, she said. The regulator is not considering support measures for the insurance sector in connection with attacks on marketplaces’ warehouses, Nabiullina noted, adding that the industry has a sufficient safety margin. TASS has collected the main statements by the Central Bank’s chief. Key interest rate and reduction of production capacity The Bank of Russia considered in detail both reducing and maintaining the key rate, and there were also isolated proposals to raise it: "We did indeed analyze the fuel situation, which is primarily a matter of what are known as supply shocks. Monetary policy responds to supply shocks if they have pronounced second-round effects and feed into persistent inflation, and, of course, depends on the duration of these shocks." The Central Bank will consider the situation regarding the reduction of production capacity when making decisions on the key rate: "We will assess how the situation evolves overall. Undoubtedly, the trend regarding diminishing capacity is a factor in our decision-making, but it is not the only factor influencing our decision on the key rate. Once again, we need to look at the situation in its entirety, but all else being equal, this would certainly reduce the scope for cutting the rate, at the very least." The Bank of Russia proceeds from the assumption that Russian companies will restore their production capacities by the end of this year: "In our baseline scenario, we assume that companies will restore their production capacities by the end of this year." It is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike: "If circumstances change and require it, we are prepared to raise the rate to whatever level is needed." There are no grounds for preemptively hiking the rate: "If our potential declines on a sustained basis this will necessitate more restrained demand in the economy, both this year and next. But I must emphasize again: this is not part of our baseline scenario. In our view, there are no grounds to preemptively factor in such a development and hike the rate. If such a scenario plays out we will do what is necessary to ensure price stability." A higher key rate trajectory is required, considering new budget inputs and potential second-round effects from the recent price increases. Rising prices, fuel market situation, inflation expectations The Bank of Russia views the current acceleration in the pace of price growth as temporary. "According to high-frequency data, rising fuel prices are beginning to spread to prices of a wide range of goods and services." The Central Bank forecasts that inflation expectations may decline as the situation in the fuel market stabilizes. "As the situation in the fuel market stabilizes, inflation expectations may decline. They reacted in much the same way to the VAT hike, adjusting relatively quickly following a short-term spike." The regulator views the current rise in inflation expectations as natural: "It was inevitable that they would rise. What matters is how they behave going forward and, of course, how the situation develops overall." The Central Bank sees the government taking measures to stabilize the fuel market: "We have, incidentally, listened carefully to representatives from our regional and territorial branches. Conditions vary by location, but according to our territorial branches, the situation is indeed stabilizing in many regions. Our baseline scenario assumes that capacities will generally be restored gradually through the end of the year." Attacks on marketplaces’ warehouses The Bank of Russia is not considering support measures for the insurance sector in connection with attacks on marketplaces’ warehouses, the industry having a sufficient safety margin: "We are not considering support measures because we believe the insurance sector as a whole possesses a sufficient safety margin. With insurers providing insurance coverage, the Russian National Reinsurance Company provides reinsurance for property against both terrorism risks and drone attack risks. Through this reinsurance process, risks are transferred from the insurers to the Russian National Reinsurance Company." Russian economy and monetary policy The future course of the Russian economy depends on a number of factors: "The first is the situation with supply of goods. Our baseline scenario assumes that companies will restore their production capacities by the end of the current year. The second factor is demand dynamics: operational data indicate that enterprises expect demand to slow down." "A gradual easing of tensions in the labor market will contribute to a slowdown in the rate of price growth." The Bank of Russia recorded a slight decline in the saving activity of Russians: "Although deposits continue to grow, their share is gradually shrinking whereas the proportion of funds allocated to financial market instruments and real estate is steadily rising." The Central Bank’s updated forecast suggests that the current tightness of monetary policy is sufficient to slow down inflation. The regulator projects the Russian federal budget deficit at 2% of GDP in 2026 and 1% in 2027 in its baseline forecast. There is no need to respond to every supply shock with monetary policy measures. The Bank of Russia does not believe that the cost of servicing the national debt could become a problem for the economy: "For Russia, such a problem does not exist, because we have a sufficiently low level of public debt." The Central Bank sees further potential for easing monetary policy, "but at a slower pace than previously anticipated." "The only way to accelerate economic growth is to utilize labor resources more effectively and boost productivity." The regulator’s monetary policy is aimed at lowering inflation and helps avoid a stagflation scenario: "As for the combination of slower growth and 6-7% inflation this year, and the attempt to label this stagflation, I do not think we should use that term indiscriminately. It is often used as a scare tactic to frighten people. People realize it is very easy to scare the public with things they do not understand." Banking sector The Russian banking sector has adjusted to sanctions, and the Central Bank sees no major issues: "Our banking sector has been operating under sanctions for several years, and a significant number of banks are subject to them. Moreover, even the banks that were not previously under sanctions are prepared for this turn of events. We proceed from the assumption that, just as during previous periods involving multiple waves of sanctions, everyone will adapt and adjust to the situation. Moreover, the banking sector possesses a substantial capital buffer and margin of safety, so we do not foresee any major problems in this regard." The Bank of Russia is not considering raising the inflation target, "it is harmful to the economy." The Central Bank currently attaches less weight to the factor of uncertainty in the Middle East than it did three months ago: "It remains a factor of uncertainty. But I would like to say that we now attach less importance to it than, say, three months ago." Stock market The Russian stock market is currently going through a challenging period, but from the standpoint of financial stability, there is no cause for concern or need to react to the associated risks: "We are analyzing what is happening in the stock market. It is experiencing difficult times, but we have not viewed it as a significant direct influence on the inflation situation or as a factor in our decision-making in this regard. In terms of overall financial stability, it seems to me there is no cause for concern." Mortgage Market mortgage rates are falling: "And, incidentally, the government’s push to make subsidized programs more targeted is also helping to make market-rate mortgages more affordable." The Central Bank’s policy aims to accelerate the decline in mortgage rates and make such loans more accessible. Situation with frozen assets The Bank of Russia, together with the Ministry of Finance, is considering various options to assist investors with assets frozen abroad: "We have repeatedly encountered instances where foreign regulators obstruct the implementation of mechanisms we develop and block transactions involving residents. For this reason, we prefer not to publicize our initiatives in advance." Cryptocurrency There are no restrictions on investors for withdrawal of cryptocurrency abroad, but it is important to remember that outside the country, they lack the protection of Russian law, and should problems arise, they will be forced to resolve them within a foreign jurisdiction: "We saw it in the recent case of blocked assets as well." 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