Iran’s calculations as US escalation looms: Trust, midterms, Hormuz

SaveSharefacebookxwhatsapp-strokecopylinkA woman holds an Iranian flag as part of a pro-government campaign in downtown Tehran, Iran, on Monday, October 26, 2026 [Vahid Salemi/AP Photo]By Usaid SiddiquiPublished On 27 Oct 202627 Oct 2026As regional powers step up diplomatic efforts to prevent another escalation in the eight-month United States-Israel war on Iran, Tehran is showing little sign of backing down from its red lines.The announcement by China on Tuesday that Beijing will be sending an envoy to relevant countries in the region soon to help avoid another round of escalation highlights the growing urgency of finding a peaceful solution to a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets and spilled over across the region.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Iran’s authorities take ‘self-sacrifice’ mobilisation campaign nationwidelist 2 of 3US military says it helped Gulf states export 1.5 billion barrels of oillist 3 of 3Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan agree to continue talks for peaceend of listOn Monday, senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye – the three nations which signed the Mecca defence pact in August – met with high-ranking Iranian officials, promising to continue discussions related to “peace and security” in the region.However, Tehran appears determined not to budge on its demands, particularly as it holds considerable leverage over the future of maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) were shipped before the war.“Iran’s priority is not simply to secure another ceasefire, but to end the war permanently and establish deterrence so that the cycle of military attacks by the US and Israel does not keep repeating itself,” Negar Mortazavi, editor and host of The Iran Podcast, told Al Jazeera.Tehran continues to insist on sanctions relief, an end to the US naval blockade on its ports in the Gulf and guarantees that the US will not renew attacks, in exchange for helping to resume normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The US wants Iran to give up more before a final peace settlement is negotiated – including making concessions about its nuclear programme.Experts say Iran’s current calculations are being driven by several factors, including its deep distrust of Washington – which has launched strikes on Iran three times since June 2025 while conducting talks – the belief that continued economic pressure could force more attractive US concessions, and much-anticipated elections in Israel and the US this week and next.[Al Jazeera]Lack of trustAt the heart of Iran’s position is a belief that previous diplomatic efforts have failed to provide sufficient protection against renewed US and Israeli attacks. The US and Israel launched the first strikes of the war on February 28, just as peace talks were ongoing in Oman. Last year, Israel launched its 12-day war on Iran in June, which the US joined.Pakistan and Qatar helped broker a memorandum of understanding in June this year aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the US blockade of Iranian ports and laying down the conditions for the start of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.But the arrangement quickly unravelled as both sides resumed attacks, leading to sustained US attacks on Iran for several weeks in July, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran on US military assets and energy infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries, as well as in Jordan.Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP), said the failure of that arrangement had hardened Tehran’s position.“Iran believes previous negotiations and ceasefire arrangements failed to protect it from renewed military attacks, and it is therefore seeking more tangible and durable guarantees,” he told Al Jazeera.US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has remained ambiguous over what course of action he will take in the near future. “My question is, do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?” Trump told reporters on Sunday. He had previously said attacks on Iran would not take place until after the US midterms on November 3.Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said last week that the country’s armed forces were prepared to respond to any new attacks, including by invading Tehran’s neighbours and hitting bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy in its war with the US.He also said Iran would only reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin peace talks once Washington took concrete steps to rebuild trust, including meeting Iran’s latest set of conditions – suspending sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and giving concrete assurances that it will not begin strikes again. US midterms, Israel elections loomThe US midterms next week, when all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for grabs, will determine which party has control of the US Congress for the final two years of Trump’s presidency. The war, already deeply unpopular with Americans, is becoming an increasingly contentious domestic issue.A Reuters/Ipsos survey earlier this month found just 34 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the conflict – his lowest rating during either of his presidential terms. Republican majorities in both houses of Congress are already wafer-thin – at 53-47 (including two independents who vote with Democrats) in the Senate and 218-214 in the House.The war has also driven up energy prices – particularly diesel, which has nearly doubled in price, causing a major burden for farmers and small businesses – adding to concerns about inflation and affordability that are dominating the election campaign.Some reports citing Iranian officials say Tehran may be deliberately prolonging negotiations to deny Trump any sort of political victory before the elections.A Republican setback could further constrain Trump’s room for manoeuvre, particularly if Democrats gain congressional control and increase scrutiny of the administration’s conduct of the war.“Tehran wants to teach a lesson to Washington, including future American presidents, that attacking Iran comes with a high price,” analyst Mortazavi said.“Its deterrence strategy is multilayered, aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs that extend well beyond the battlefield.”Before the US midterms is Israel’s election on Tuesday, which introduces another dimension to Iran’s calculations. A defeat for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could complicate renewing joint attacks with the US on Iran, as experts say he was the main force behind Trump greenlighting the war.While some believe an opposition victory led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot could potentially ease regional tensions, Netanyahu’s removal would not necessarily translate into a softer Israeli position towards Iran.Eisenkot is himself a former military chief, and has repeatedly expressed concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme and regional influence.Nevertheless, Mortazavi said, while Iranian officials are closely watching the political consequences of the war for both Washington and Israel, they recognise the danger of renewed escalation after the elections, “making a durable diplomatic settlement even more urgent”. Iran’s Hormuz leverageIran’s control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of its strongest bargaining chips.The waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies before the war began on February 28, giving Tehran considerable leverage over global oil markets.October has recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial shipping around Hormuz, according to data collected by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.Brent crude surged above $117 a barrel last week – compared with about $72 pre-war – following Iranian attacks on tankers, while shipping through the strait remains nowhere near pre-war levels.Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said he believes Iran is deliberately exploiting this economic pressure as part of a wider contest of endurance with Washington.“They know they are in an attritional race with the US to see who breaks first,” Beauchamp told Al Jazeera. “For now, however, they are happy to keep attacking shipping to push prices higher.”(Al Jazeera)Uncertainty over diplomatic effortsThe latest diplomatic initiative reflects a growing concern among regional powers about the consequences of another round of fighting.Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye agreed with Iranian officials on Monday to continue discussions about regional peace and security, amid fears that the conflict could escalate again.The talks in Tehran come amid heightened regional tensions following weeks of attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, who are also engaged in a conflict with forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognised, Saudi-backed government.Pakistan and Turkiye maintain close strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and have committed to supporting Riyadh militarily under the recently established Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between the three Muslim-majority nations.Political analyst Rami Khouri, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Center in Washington DC, said the meeting had several objectives, some more immediate than others.“The most immediate goal: to de-escalate and to try to return to the diplomatic process, to have a permanent ceasefire, and then define the issues and address them with much stronger mediation, supported by these three countries [Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye] and maybe others,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.He added that talks could mark the beginning of a shift away from a regional security order dominated by Washington, towards one in which Middle East countries and other regional nations can exercise greater influence.Meanwhile, CIP’s Toossi said regional powers are increasingly recognising that their own security cannot be separated from that of Iran, despite their differences with Tehran.“It will be difficult to stabilise Yemen while the wider US-Iran confrontation continues, just as it will be difficult to reach a durable settlement with Iran while regional military escalation remains a constant threat,” he said.Ultimately, however, the biggest obstacle remains Iran’s lack of trust in Washington, Iran Podcast host Mortazavi said.“After two wars, Tehran is deeply sceptical of American commitments and wants concrete guarantees that any agreement will not simply become another temporary pause before the next attack,” she said.“Iran is willing to negotiate and has already demonstrated flexibility by presenting a proposal to end the war. But Tehran believes it retains significant leverage, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, and will not surrender that leverage under military or economic pressure. The goal is a permanent end to the war, not another temporary ceasefire that leaves the underlying conflict unresolved.”