Israel election deadlock: Four possible paths to a new government

Coalition negotiations could produce a unity government, a minority administration or another trip to the polls.Israel’s election this week was indecisive and there is no clear winner poised to form a government. Benjamin Netanyahu remains in office as caretaker prime minister, but faces a parliament stacked with an opposition majority vying to oust him. Here are some scenarios that could follow: Could Israel face another election? After the formal final election results are published next week, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog begins consultations with party representatives and then taps the candidate whom he deems to have the best chance to form a government. If the candidate fails, another can try and if that candidate fails, the Knesset can nominate another. There is a deadline for the process of around 100 days. If no one succeeds, another election is held. Related Articles • Netanyahu’s party claims Arabs ‘stole’ Israeli election • Israel’s high-turnout vote brushed aside in rest of the Middle East • Israeli stocks fall, shekel weakens as Netanyahu bloc beats election forecasts • Netanyahu holds on as Israel election ends in deadlock Herzog said on Wednesday that everything must be done to avoid another election and urged the parties to come with an open mind to the consultations with him. Could Netanyahu form a unity government? Netanyahu’s Likud party, emerging as the largest in the Knesset, forms a coalition that would likely include centrist and right-wing opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, the second-largest party, Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Our Home and Naftali Bennett’s Together faction. That grouping would secure 66 seats, a majority in the 120-seat parliament. However, this option appears remote at this point because it would mean Netanyahu would likely have to abandon his natural political allies, the far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. Further, the opposition parties would have to break their main election pledge to their voters: unseating Netanyahu. Still, if neither camp is able to form a government at the end of weeks of protracted negotiations, a unity government may emerge as a last option. Renewed fighting with Iran, or other players, could also push the sides together. Could Eisenkot lead a minority government? If Herzog taps Eisenkot first, he could try to form a government with Yashar’s natural allies — Together, The Democrats and Israel Our Home — propped up by Israel’s two Arab parties, even if they are not members of this government: Ra’am and the Joint List. Eisenkot’s camp would number 48 seats, according to the latest vote tally, with the Arab parties numbering 19 seats that together reach a 67-seat majority. But even if Eisenkot reverses his campaign pledge not to have Arab parties in government and accepts their support, it would be a hard sell to many Israelis whose attitudes toward Israel’s Arab minority have hardened further since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Netanyahu has focused his campaign on delegitimizing support from Arab parties, who surged to record heights in Tuesday’s election, and for now, only The Democrats, a centre-left party, has come out publicly calling for their inclusion. Both Arab parties have signalled that they are prepared to cooperate with Eisenkot’s camp. Ra’am joined Bennett’s government ​in 2021, the first time an independent Arab party entered an Israeli coalition. That government collapsed after 18 months. Could Netanyahu rebuild a right-wing majority? Netanyahu’s coalition has fallen from its original 64 seats to 53, according to the latest election results. But Israel’s longest-serving leader is viewed as one of its most skilled politicians and he could split the opposition by peeling away members of its parties and bringing them over to his side. He has managed to do this before, including as opposition head in the run-up to the 2022 election, which he won. But the coalition he was battling at the time had a far narrower lead and he did not need too many defectors to destabilize his political rivals.