Never too early to talk about the presidential elections

Following the back-to-back announcements of the candidacies of Averof Neophytou and then Annita Demetriou for the 2028 presidential elections, the government’s line, expressed first by deputy government spokesman Yiannis Antoniou and then by President Nikos Christodoulides himself, was that it remains “too early” for such discussions to begin. With October now upon us, there are 16 months remaining until Cyprus will be asked to elect a new president, meaning that if the campaign is now considered to have started, it will consume the final quarter of the present term, which only began in March 2023. Neophytou, who was Disy’s candidate last time around, had said the announcement of his candidacy was timed following a lack of progress on the Cyprus problem at last month’s United Nations general assembly, warning while Christodoulides was in New York that he would announce his candidacy if no results were achieved. He kept his word when Christodoulides returned from New York empty-handed, and declared himself to be in the race last Sunday, before holding a press conference on Tuesday declaring that his warnings on the Cyprus problem had fallen on “deaf ears”. Disy swiftly responded to Neophytou, stressing that its internal party regulations will be followed, before party leader Demetriou announced her own candidacy on Monday afternoon. Somewhat forgotten in the crosshairs of those twin announcements is that former health minister George Pamboridis had back in July – a full 19 months ahead of the election – announced his intention to run for president on Disy’s ticket. Likewise, former Greek Cypriot chief negotiator for the Cyprus problem Andreas Mavroyiannis is seeking Akel’s backing for a second successive election campaign, though the party is yet to show its hand in this regard. Christodoulides was asked on Wednesday about his own intentions for 2028, and said that “without wishing to doubt the right of any party or any compatriot to begin its election campaign, I believe it is too early”. “We have before us very serious challenges, to which the executive branch, in cooperation with the legislative branch, must offer solutions.” Christodoulides’ current stance resembles five years ago These words do not necessarily mean that not a thought has been given to the 2028 elections from inside the government, however, with Health Minister Neophytos Charalambides a month ago having appeared on television insisting that his party, Diko, will endorse Christodoulides’ re-election campaign. Disy leader Annita Demetriou announced she will stand in 2028 on Monday (Christos Theodorides) Party leader Nicholas Papadopoulos, however, is yet to show his hand, insisting that “Diko does not give blank cheques to anyone”. In this sense, Christodoulides’ current stance ahead of the 2028 election is reminiscent of his stance five years ago ahead of the 2023 election, in that, while having stopped short of an official candidacy announcement, the groundwork is being laid for a campaign. Newspaper Politis reported on September 5, 2021, that Christodoulides, then foreign minister, was “considering” a run in 2023, possibly as an independent, with “the backing of the so-called centrist parties, Diko, Edek, the Ecologists’ Movement, possibly Dipa, and, at least initially, the tacit support of Elam”. By November 1 the same year, the same newspaper was reporting that “the foreign ministry has been transformed in recent months into an election campaign headquarters for Nikos Christodoulides”. Neophytou was the first major figure to officially announce his candidacy, in December of the same year, with Christodoulides resigning as foreign minister in January 2022, insisting that “early and long pre-election periods are counterproductive”, indirectly criticising Neophytou for announcing his own candidacy. Eventually, Christodoulides waited until May to officially announce his candidacy, winning the support of Diko in June, Edek in July, and Dipa in October. One election prior, Nicos Anastasiades had only officially confirmed his intention to stand at the 2018 election in October 2017, a month after Akel-backed candidate Stavros Malas, though Anastasiades had announced his intention to run in the 2013 contest as early as February 2012. Cypriot campaigns exceptionally long compared to elsewhere However, even Christodoulides’ comparatively late announcement of his candidacy in 2022 – nine months out from the last election – would be an exceptionally early point at which a presidential campaign would start elsewhere in the world. Tufan Erhurman and Ersin Tatar both announced their candidacies for last year’s Turkish Cypriot leadership election campaign in April, six months ahead of the vote, while at Turkey’s last presidential election in 2023, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu was unveiled on March 6, just 69 days before the country went to the polls on May 14. Bulgaria, meanwhile, is set to hold presidential elections on October 25 this year, and incumbent Iliana Iotova announced her candidacy for re-election on July 25, just 92 days before polling day, and opposition candidate Andrey Gyurov announced his own candidacy on September 1, 55 days in advance. That being said, elongated election campaigns are not a uniquely Cypriot phenomenon, with the United States typically being seen as a world leader in that regard. Donald Trump officially filed his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election on November 15, 2022 – almost two years in advance – while the US’ two major political parties hold months or primary and caucus elections in each and every state ahead of the main event. In France, the race to replace incumbent president Emmanuel Macron next April has already been underway for months, with Gabriel Attal and Jean-Luc Melenchon having both announced their candidacies in May, and Marine Le Pen having followed suit in July. In Cyprus, Disy will hold its own primary election, with Demetriou, Neophytou and Pamboridis likely on the ballot to be put to party members on November 14.