Northern Ethiopia’s shifting alliances explained

SaveSharefacebookxwhatsapp-strokecopylinkEthiopian government soldiers ride in the back of a truck near Agula, north of Mekele in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, on May 8, 2021 [Ben Curtis/AP]By Mehdi al-ZaghdidiPublished On 7 Aug 20267 Aug 2026Between 2020 and 2022, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a bloody war against Ethiopia’s federal government and its allies in Eritrea and the Amhara militias known as Fano. Less than four years later, Ethiopia’s federal government is accusing those same former allies of supporting the TPLF, redrawing the map of alliances in northern Ethiopia.So who are the actors now confronting Ethiopia’s federal government in this renewed conflict?The TPLFIn March 2025, fighters from the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) led by Debretsion Gebremichael seized the regional radio station and the mayor’s office in Mekele, along with several towns along the Eritrean border. These included parts of the Sehartie district and the city of Adigrat, the region’s second-largest population centre, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.The centre also said Eritrea still controls parts of the Irob and Shiraro districts along the border, despite the peace agreement’s requirement that all foreign forces withdraw from Ethiopian territory.In October 2025, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the TPLF and Eritrea, in a letter to the United Nations, of “financing, mobilising and directing” Fano forces that had advanced in the North Wollo area.Fano militia members patrol the Sangi livestock market in Ethiopia’s Amhara region on January 23, 2025 [AP]In the letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Ethiopia’s foreign minister said the alleged coordination had “become clearer in recent months” and accused “the hardline faction within the front and the Eritrean government” of preparing for war against Ethiopia.The Ethiopian newspaper Addis Standard reported that the letter also accused the two sides of supporting an attempt by Fano forces to seize the city of Weldiya in the Amhara region in September, and said TPLF leaders and fighters had taken part directly in the operation.Debretsion rejected the allegations, saying the letter contained “fabricated stories and smear campaigns” intended to divert attention from what he described as the federal government’s failure to honour the peace agreement. He called it “a dangerous reversal of history, an attempt to portray the aggressor as the victim and the victims as aggressors”, adding that the federal government was training new militias to destabilise Tigray.Fano militiasFano is an irregular Amhara nationalist militia network with no single central leadership. It emerged in its current form during protests in Ethiopia’s Amhara region in 2016.The BBC has described Fano’s trajectory as a shift “from alliance to rupture”. The militias were once allied with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government against the TPLF, before rejecting efforts to disarm them and saying they were defending the Amhara people against what they described as government abuses.The BBC also reported that Fano appears to be expanding its agenda towards the removal of Abiy Ahmed’s government and is carrying out increasingly deadly operations.EritreaOn February 3, Ethiopia’s federal government acknowledged for the first time that Eritrean forces had participated in the Tigray war, saying they were responsible for mass killings, the destruction of homes and the looting of factories.The Associated Press reported that Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel rejected the allegations, describing them as “cheap and despicable lies”.Tigrayan fighters walk in formation in Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region, on June 30, 2021 [Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP]Days later, Addis Ababa called on Eritrea to “withdraw its forces from Ethiopian territory”. Asmara responded that the accusations were “false and blatantly fabricated” and “another episode in a pattern of hostile campaigns against Eritrea for more than two years”, adding that it had no desire for “a meaningless dispute that would further inflame the situation”.Eritrea also accused Addis Ababa of seeking access to the Eritrean port of Assab, saying the two governments had cooperated against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war before their relationship deteriorated over the peace agreement, from which Eritrea was excluded.The regional dimensionThe International Crisis Group places these alignments within a broader regional context. It says Abiy Ahmed is close to regional actors who support Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its war against the Sudanese army, while Eritrea has aligned itself with the Sudanese army and established ties with Egypt, an opponent of Addis Ababa because of the dispute over Nile water resources.Fighting erupted in western Tigray earlier this week, with the Ethiopian government and the TPLF trading accusations over who initiated the clashes.