Our View: Would either side be upset if Holguin calls time?

Another make or break meeting in the ongoing saga of the Cyprus issue takes place on Monday. If Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman and President Nikos Christodoulides agree to the two confidence building measures (CBMs) proposed by the UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin the process will stay alive. If they do not, she will pack her bags and go home, bringing to an end another attempt by the UN to broker a settlement. This is not to say that an agreement on Monday would guarantee the opening of the road to the so-called 5+1 meeting that would lead to the resumption of talks. There would be plenty more obstacles to be overcome before that could happen, and neither leader gives the impression they are committed to taking the process forward. The fact that Holguin had to reduce the number of CBMs on which agreement was sought for the process to move to the next stage, from the seven originally set down by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, underlined the leaders’ lack of real political will. According to press reports carrying information from the presidential palace, if the leaders sign off on the reduced package of CBMs, they will be invited to a meeting with Guterres at which the methodology of negotiations would have to be agreed. If there is agreement there – and it is very a big ‘if’ – the secretary-general will call a 5+1 meeting that would be attended by Greece, Turkey and Britain to decide the resumption and format of the talks. Presumably, the broad meeting will also decide what type of settlement the resumption of talks will lead to because Turkey is still calling for a two-state solution. After his visit to the island on Friday, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, once again repeated Ankara’s support for two states. “We believe that the most realistic solution to the Cyprus problem lies in the existence of two state, side by side, on the island,” he said, before asserting that “the recognition of the sovereign equality and equal international status of the Turkish Cypriot people is a primary prerequisite for a just and lasting solution.” Turkey has been calling for two states since the collapse of the talks at Crans-Montana, arguing, with some justification, that the two sides had proved that there was no federal settlement they could agree on. Five decades of failed attempts at reaching agreement was emphatic proof, Ankara argued. Erhurman does not share this view, which is probably why the UN is still trying to arrange a resumption of talks. Meanwhile, Christodoulides seems uninterested in winning over Erhurman by showing greater flexibility on the CBMs. He seems more concerned with his communications strategy and winning publicity points. On Friday, the head of the presidential press office, Victoras Papadopoulos, said the proposals the president conveyed to Erhurman verbally, “offer a way out for all three issues the secretary-general asked to be discussed and on which there had to be progress, that is the CBMs, the methodology and the substance of the Cyprus problem.” In the case of the CBMs, some of the president’s proposals were put into practice (leaders meeting with the technical committees and exchanging works of art) said Papadopoulos, omitting to mention that these were not among the requirements of the UNSG and that there was no agreement on the seven CBMs that Guterres had proposed. Even on the de-mining, which is one of the two measures that have to be accepted on Monday, there are still differences over the area it would cover. These are not good signs for Monday’s make or break meeting, but we suspect neither the Cyprus government nor Turkey will be particularly bothered if Holguin calls it a day. The former will blame the failure on Turkish intransigence and Turkey will have moved much closer to its two-state objective.