Press review: EU braces for winter fuel shortage as gold prices set to recover

Press review: EU braces for winter fuel shortage as gold prices set to recover Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, August 12th© Sean Gallup/ Getty ImagesMOSCOW, August 12. /TASS/. The rapid decline in gas reserves in Europe’s underground storage facilities has triggered concerns within the EU about a harsh winter; the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz until 2029 would potentially benefit the US and Russia; and gold is losing its stability amid geopolitical developments and decisions by global central banks. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia. Izvestia: EU preparing for winter with critically low fuel reserves Gas reserves in Europe’s underground storage facilities are rapidly falling. According to the August 10 data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the facilities are only 59.1% full, which is 12.4% below the level a year earlier. Disruptions in LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and increased electricity consumption due to an abnormal heat wave are contributing to the situation. Disruptions to LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary reason for the slow pace of gas injection into storage facilities. Under normal conditions, about 20% of the world’s LNG supply passes through the strait. Therefore, the disruption in supplies has significantly tightened the global market balance, Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at the Implementa consulting firm, told Izvestia. The situation was further aggravated by the abnormal heat wave that swept across Europe this summer. The rate of gas injection into storage facilities has slowed because current prices are too high for European energy companies, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, pointed out. According to him, operators are reluctant to purchase fuel at current prices, as they may not be able to sell it to consumers this winter without incurring losses. The expert noted that the situation in Europe this winter will also be affected by the complete ban on Russian LNG imports into the EU under long-term contracts, set to take effect on January 1, 2027. If the winter is harsh, European countries may deplete their gas reserves. In that case, they would have to urgently purchase additional gas at higher prices. As a last resort, they could curtail supplies to consumers. Another option would be to switch to coal and fuel oil, but this would be uneconomical and have a negative impact on the environment, Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital Asset Management, stressed. While insufficiently filled underground gas storage facilities do not necessarily mean a gas shortage, they significantly reduce the safety margin. Europe will be more dependent on LNG imports this winter. Additional pipeline supplies are possible from Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan, as well as LNG supplies from the US. However, their total potential is limited, Timonin emphasized. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, supplies from Qatar may resume. However, the EU will in any case have to compete with China for additional volumes, which will push prices higher, Skryabin noted. If Europe does not boost its fuel reserves by winter and Middle Eastern LNG supplies do not resume, the need to compete more aggressively with Asia for additional shipments could drive prices up to $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters, experts said. However, Skryabin added that demand will also be strongly affected by weather conditions this coming winter. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russian oil export prospects amid potential Hormuz closure until 2029 The Strait of Hormuz could remain closed until 2029 if the US does not agree to all of Iran’s demands, Iranian parliament adviser Majid Shakeri said. According to him, the best strategy for Iran would be to avoid both an open war with the US and a peace deal with Donald Trump before the end of his presidential term. Paradoxically, the US and Russia remain the biggest beneficiaries of the current situation. According to Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov, the US has made oil prices manageable. Washington is satisfied with the current prices: they are high, but not exorbitant. This is enough to sustain and expand US oil production without causing a crisis in domestic gasoline prices. The upside for Russia is that high oil prices per barrel allow the country to replenish its budget and generate additional oil revenues compared to the start of the year, the expert noted. The discount on Russian oil shrinks during periods of limited supply, causing its importers to pay less attention to US and EU sanctions, which are now in full effect. India, which purchased Russian oil when it was exempt from US sanctions, continues to do so, and Russian oil now accounts for 28% of China’s imports, Simonov emphasized. Moreover, according to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, the situation is becoming less advantageous for Russia than it was at the start of the Middle East crisis. Initially, Russia enjoyed two advantages at once: high global prices and a sharp rise in demand from Asia. Now, the drawback is becoming apparent. As of the end of July, China accounted for about 50% of Russian crude oil exports, and India for 37%. In other words, approximately 87% of the volume is effectively concentrated in just two major markets. Nevertheless, Simonov pointed out that almost no one is currently interested in cutting the volume of Russian oil exports. Not even Europe and the US, despite their various political statements. It is enough to note that attempts to launch drone strikes against Russia’s Baltic Sea ports have ceased. And in the Black Sea, the attack targeted the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, which is more closely associated with Kazakhstani oil and European and American companies than with Russia. In a sense, blocking the Strait of Hormuz shields Russia from sanctions, the expert stressed. It is hardly possible to dictate terms to producers when there is a supply shortage. According to Simonov, under current conditions, the US will not monitor compliance with its own sanctions too closely, let alone strengthen them. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Gold prices poised to recover after sharp decline Gold prices hit another all-time high earlier this year. At the time, it seemed that the precious metal was destined to continue climbing in price. However, geopolitical developments and decisions by global central banks caused sharp and rapid price adjustments, making the price of a troy ounce of the metal fall by nearly a third. Thus, gold, traditionally considered a "safe haven" for investors, has lost its price stability. Why did this sharp reversal begin? The answer lies in both financial reasons and the latest geopolitical developments. "First, the market was flooded with leveraged speculative long positions, and profit-taking was a natural reaction to the overheated market. Second, the dollar strengthened sharply at the same time. This was partly due to the White House announcing the nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the US Federal Reserve. The decision to leave the interest rate unchanged also eliminated part of the uncertainty weighing on the US currency," Pervaya Asset Management analyst Ivan Kuznetsov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The issue is that the rate was not cut as much as US President Donald Trump would have liked. Now, there are increasing reasons to raise interest rates, not just in the US, but globally. "Essentially, the key factor pressuring gold prices is the fear of potential monetary policy tightening by global central banks amid rising inflation. Rising inflation is a consequence of high oil prices, which are linked to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East," Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko stressed. According to Freedom Global leading analyst Natalia Milchakova, gold prices could rise to $4,300 per troy ounce by 2026 due to demand from global central banks and investors interested in holding an asset that preserves its value amid inflation. "A new all-time high - that is, a rise in the price of gold above $5,600 per troy ounce - will be possible if the dollar declines sharply again. This is likely if the US begins a sharp cut in interest rates at President Trump’s request or for other subjective factors. But this year, such a price is highly unlikely," the analyst pointed out. In turn, Dudchenko shares the view that it is now unlikely the price will reach a new all-time high in 2026. "At the same time, in our base-case scenario, we still believe that the price of gold could resume its growth, returning to the $4,500-$4,700 per troy ounce range," he noted. Izvestia: Colombia earthquake poses threat to global coffee prices The earthquake in Colombia threatens to push up global coffee prices, experts say. The natural disaster struck the western part of the country where coffee is primarily cultivated and exported. A state of emergency has already been declared due to the severe consequences. Hundreds of people have died, and about 3,000 are missing. Panic among Colombians has intensified due to the recent earthquake in Venezuela, which was the deadliest there since 1900. The infrastructure of both countries proved completely unprepared for such disasters, which are rare for the region, Yegor Lidovskoy, CEO of Russia’s Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center, told Izvestia. The expert emphasized that, unlike Venezuela's $30 billion in funds blocked by Washington, Colombia can count on financial support from US President Donald Trump. However, due to the worsening situation with Iran, American resources are limited, and the $15.5 million allocated by the US is negligible given the current scale of destruction, which raises doubts about the White House’s effectiveness as a key partner, Lidovskoy noted. Interestingly, this large-scale natural disaster struck on the fourth day of new President Abelardo de la Espriella’s tenure, posing a serious test for his administration, political analyst Igor Pshenichnikov stressed. The inflow of foreign funds has been blocked due to a lack of donors and because Colombian exports have come to a complete standstill. Due to damage to the road network, all trains and convoys transporting coffee, sugar, and coal for export have been left stranded, and logistics companies are unable to physically transport finished products from plantations and factories, foreign relations expert Anastasia Gavrilova pointed out. The tremors destroyed warehouses storing harvested beans, primary processing facilities, and drying stations. Due to this damage, it is technically impossible to process, package, and ready even the harvested coffee for shipment. The widespread violation of international contracts will inevitably trigger a sharp spike in Arabica prices, which will result in a significant increase in the cost of coffee for consumers worldwide, the expert said. The loss of export revenue is upending Bogota’s previous financial plans. Before the earthquake, Bancolombia analysts had forecast Colombia’s GDP growth at 2.6% for 2026, but that figure is now unattainable. Inflation will intensify, domestic prices will spike, and the failure to meet external obligations will drive the economy into an even deeper deficit. Without urgent, large-scale financial support from abroad, Colombia could face economic collapse, experts stressed. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia's trade surplus rises by 14% in first half of year Russia’s trade surplus increased by 14% in the first half of the year, reaching $73.4 billion, the Federal Customs Service said. Experts believe the increase in exports and imports indicates Russia and its trading partners have addressed payment issues. However, the main risk remains: the trade surplus continues to be driven by commodity exports. Russia's primary challenge is transforming its trade balance from a source of foreign exchange earnings into a driver of technological modernization and growth in non-commodity exports. The 14% increase in Russia’s foreign trade surplus in the first half of the year is the result of the economy adjusting to the new reality, Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at Finam Investment Company, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Exports rose to $219.5 billion, driven by oil, petroleum products, gas, metals, fertilizers, grain, and agricultural products. The main factor was the reorganization of logistics and the reorientation of trade flows toward China, India, Turkey, the CIS countries, and the Middle East," he noted. Imports rose by 10.8% amid a recovery in domestic demand and investment activity. "However, Asian suppliers have replaced Europe in the market. Equipment, automobiles, electronics, and consumer goods now come mainly from China and other Asian countries," the expert said. In turn, Dmitry Kuznetsov, a research fellow at the International Trade Laboratory under the Gaidar Institute, attributed the significant growth in metal exports during the first half of the year to favorable global prices on the non-ferrous metals market. According to him, imports are supported in part by the relatively strong ruble, but the relatively high key interest rate continues to have a somewhat limiting effect. According to Kabakov, although Russia’s foreign trade has stabilized, its structure remains vulnerable: the surplus continues to be driven by raw material shipments. "The main challenge is to transform the trade balance from a source of foreign exchange earnings into a driver of technological modernization and growth in non-commodity exports," he pointed out. Meanwhile, Freedom Global leading analyst Natalia Milchakova noted that the uptick in exports and imports during the first half of 2026 may indicate that Russia and its foreign trade partners have found a way to address payment issues and have likely shifted most payments to national currencies, cryptocurrencies, barter, and other methods, so that foreign banks would not hold up payments out of fear of secondary sanctions. TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews Press review: NATO boosts Northern Europe presence as Israel blocks Gaza peace effortsTop stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, August 11thRead moreCENTCOM reports disabling ship that attempted to breach blockade on IranAccording to the US military, the vessel has ignored repeated warnings while en route to an Iranian port via the Gulf of OmanRead moreUkrainian drone attack kills civilian in CrimeaRegional head Sergey Aksyonov urged residents of Crimea to stay calm and vigilantRead moreJD Vance personally asks Kiev to stop strikes on CPC infrastructure — newspaperAccording to the Financial Times, the US vice president conveyed Washington’s request in a phone call with Vladimir Zelensky on July 31Read moreIN BRIEF: What we know about release of American Robert Gilman, convicted in RussiaRobert Gilman was detained in 2022 at the Voronezh railway station after being involved in a drunken brawl on the Sukhum-Moscow 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