Press review: Iran expands its naval war with US and EU blocks US ambitions in Greenland

Press review: Iran expands its naval war with US and EU blocks US ambitions in Greenland Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, August 8th© AP Photo/Vahid SalemiMOSCOW, September 8. /TASS/. Iran is pursuing a new approach to counter the US-imposed naval blockade of its ports; NATO’s European allies are trying to counter US ambitions in Greenland; and the EU is entering the heating season with the lowest level of gas storage in 15 years. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Iran expanding scope of its naval war with US Tehran is fundamentally changing its approach to countering the US-imposed naval blockade of Iranian ports. The Islamic Republic will soon unilaterally establish a restricted-access zone in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Under this new initiative, any vessel attempting to head toward the Strait of Hormuz from either side without Iran’s approval will be added to a sanctions list. In other words, Tehran intends to oversee the entire maritime area, from the line of the US-imposed naval blockade to the loading ports deep within the Persian Gulf. This appears to be an attempt to prevent the operation of the alternative Strait of Hormuz corridor established by the US. Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Iran’s "no-go zone" idea has clear objectives. "Most shipowners do not risk passing through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian permission. However, the US has found companies willing to transport cargo, primarily oil, through the strait under Iranian fire with American air cover," the expert noted. "These include, first and foremost, the shipping division of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the Saudi Bahri national shipping company, the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company (KOTC), and South Korea’s Sinokor company," he listed. If these companies’ tankers transported oil directly to the buyer countries, it would not have a significant impact on supplies, Lamin pointed out. "That is why these companies’ tankers are now effectively moving back and forth between the Persian Gulf, where they load oil, and the Gulf of Oman, where they transfer that oil at sea to tankers belonging to other companies that do not want to take the risk of being targeted by Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz," the expert stressed. "If Iran extends the no-go zone to the Gulf of Oman - and not just extends it, but begins to strike tankers there just as it does in the Strait of Hormuz - this will sharply increase the risks. This is especially true during the process of transferring oil from one tanker to another. This is a fairly lengthy operation, during which two tankers moored side by side are particularly exposed to any type of attack," the expert emphasized. Izvestia: How European allies blocking US ambitions in Greenland The Arctic Shield military drills have begun in Greenland, involving nearly 400 servicemen from ten NATO countries. Several other countries are represented by observers and logistics specialists. The exercises are officially intended to test allied coordination in challenging Arctic conditions and bolster NATO’s capabilities in the region. However, the drills are taking place amid US President Donald Trump’s ongoing claims to Greenland and discussions about whether European allies can independently ensure the island’s security. Experts believe the exercises also aim to show Washington that European countries are willing to strengthen Greenland’s defenses independently. "Statements about containing China are nothing more than a media myth," military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia. "NATO’s main focus in the Arctic has always been anti-Russian. At the same time, against the backdrop of Trump’s rhetoric, Denmark is trying to show its readiness to defend its territories and demonstrate the concept of ‘a Europe capable of acting without the US’," he noted. According to the expert, the Europeans are unable to fully deploy a large military force in the region due to a lack of necessary infrastructure, and the military buildup itself only intensifies separatist sentiments among the local population. The tensions around Greenland highlight a deeper crisis in relations between the US and European NATO members, Colonel Andrey Koshkin, head of the Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes Department under the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, emphasized. "From a defense standpoint, Washington has no problems in this region: the necessary military infrastructure was established there back during the Cold War. The attempt to reclaim ownership of the island is perceived by Europeans as a demonstration of harsh political domination," the expert pointed out. "Against this backdrop, European members of the alliance are forced to consider their own strategic autonomy. The growing uncertainty will inevitably lead to a transformation of NATO’s structure," he stressed. At the same time, both experts agree that the real reason for the increased attention on Greenland is the competition over resources and the transport routes of the future. Izvestia: Europe approaching winter with record gas shortage Amid an abnormal heat wave and risks to LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, the European fuel market is becoming increasingly unstable. Having turned away from Russian pipeline gas, the EU now depends on the US and Norway for nearly 60% of its gas supply. Experts say that the main threat this winter may not be a shortage of hydrocarbons but rather another surge in prices. The EU is entering the heating season with gas storage facilities at their lowest level in 15 years: 65.6%. Germany, Europe’s traditional industrial powerhouse, is among the most vulnerable EU countries. The Bundestag emphasizes that the current gas pricing model in Europe undermines the international competitiveness of German industry. Over the past four years, Europe has almost completely reshaped the structure of its fuel imports. Currently, Norway accounts for 30-33% of supplies, and the US accounts for 25%. Together, these two countries cover nearly 60% of the EU’s needs. However, unlike pipeline gas, LNG is sold on the global market, with tankers heading to wherever the price is highest. Therefore, during the winter months, the EU will have to compete for available volumes with not only its neighbors, but also Asia’s largest importers: China, Japan, and South Korea. Matthias Moosdorf, a German lawmaker representing the Alternative for Germany party, told Izvestia that relying on American LNG and Norwegian gas does not compensate for the advantages of previous long-term contracts with Russia. "That was a big mistake. We turned our backs on Russian pipeline gas, but we continue to buy that same gas through intermediaries at much higher prices," he emphasized. "Today, German industry and businesses pay some of the highest energy rates, and companies are losing their international competitiveness. This is not in Germany’s best interests," the politician noted. Europe’s energy dependence has not disappeared; it has merely taken on a different form. Rather than relying on a single major pipeline supplier, the EU now depends on the global market, where gas prices are determined by demand at the largest LNG export terminals: Rotterdam, Doha, Houston, Tokyo, and Beijing, Alexander Frolov, deputy director of the Institute of International Economic Relations at MGIMO, told Izvestia. That is precisely why the main threat to Europe will be not so much a physical fuel shortage as a new round of rising gas prices, he explained. The current situation differs significantly from the 2022 crisis. Back then, Europe faced a sharp decline in pipeline supplies. Today, Europe is dependent on the global LNG market, where tankers go wherever they can secure the highest price. Vedomosti: Reasons behind North Korea, Russia quickly building road bridge across Tumen River The bridge across the Tumen River on the border between Russia and North Korea opened to traffic on September 7. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and North Korean Premier Pak Thae Song participated in the event via video conference, after which the first convoys of vehicles crossed the bridge. For the first time in history, the new bridge has linked these two neighboring countries with regular road traffic. The idea of building a road bridge between North Korea and Russia had been on the negotiating agenda for several decades, but a final decision was not made until the 2024 summit between the leaders of these two countries, and this project was urgently needed, Alexander Vorontsov, head of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Oriental Studies Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. The expert noted that North Korea (and, in the long term, the entire Korean Peninsula) is now essentially connected by road to the entire Eurasian continent. Although freight traffic between the countries will not immediately increase after the new bridge opens, it will obviously grow due to the diversification of transport routes, Vorontsov pointed out. In addition, it is now much more convenient for tourists from Russia’s Primorsky Region to travel, for example, to the border town of Rason on the Sea of Japan coast, which is part of North Korea’s first trade and economic zone or a little further, to the border with China, where ski tourism is developing on Mount Paektu. At the same time, Russia and North Korea will take advantage of new opportunities "across the full spectrum of the two countries’ foreign policy and foreign economic interests," Vorontsov emphasized. As for the height of the bridge, it is indeed "not the tallest" - just like the railway bridge - but the two parties made the decision on its technical specifications, possibly even before 2024. The Tumen is a shallow river that carries a great deal of sediment. However, if a political decision is reached, further work could be carried out, such as deepening its bed. The Chinese have alternative ideas as well, such as digging a parallel navigable canal, the expert recalled. The very fact that this project is underway is significant because it is the first road bridge between the two countries despite their long history of relations dating back to 1948, Alexander Zhebin, a leading research fellow at the Korean Studies Center of the China and Modern Asia Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated. Given the authorities’ serious plans to develop trade, the road bridge in particular could become an important means of transporting goods and also help boost tourist traffic, he noted. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Who can regulate global oil market right now? The actions of OPEC+ have all but ceased to influence the global oil market, becoming little more than background noise. Although the alliance’s decisions affect buyer and seller sentiment, they are powerless to change the situation radically. China and the US are now vying for the role of oil market regulators. As the largest oil importer, China was expected to import up to 11.6 million barrels per day by 2025, accounting for 11% of global demand. The country possesses enormous oil reserves in storage, estimated at between 1.2 and 1.4 billion barrels. The US is also competing for this role. It produces more oil than any other country: 13.8 million barrels per day. Like China, the US has large oil reserves, but they have been depleted following significant market interventions this year. In addition, the US effectively controls production in Guyana, Canada, and Venezuela. OPEC+ reached its peak influence on the global market has already passed, driven by several fundamental factors, energy expert Kirill Rodionov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. First, oil production is growing in North and South America. Second is the slowdown in global demand growth, partly due to the electrification of transportation in China, where electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids already account for more than half of new passenger car sales. The "supply race" for oil was expected to begin this year, with OPEC+ countries participating, but the Hormuz crisis prevented this from happening, the expert emphasized. Without a recovery in production and export volumes from the Persian Gulf countries, even taking into account production growth in non-OPEC+ countries, it will take more than a year for the market to reach a balance between supply and demand. Iran and the US are currently responsible for ensuring passage through the Strait of Hormuz. They are effectively regulating the oil market, but since they are adversaries who cannot reach an agreement, chaos results instead. Even if the strait opens, a surplus will be a long way off. According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, a significant portion of production will recover within one to two months, reaching about 70% of the previous level within three months and about 90% within six months. The remaining volumes will take longer to recover. Exports will take even longer to recover, he pointed out. In the current situation, Russia has the opportunity to increase oil production and exports. However, according to Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov, Russia is falling short of its OPEC+ quotas by nearly one million barrels per day. Moreover, due to shipping issues in the Black Sea, Russian maritime oil exports have declined slightly over the past month, which could lead to a further decrease in production. 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