Press review: Peace in Lebanon under threat and Germany readies military draft return

Press review: Peace in Lebanon under threat and Germany readies military draft return Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, June 30th© AP Photo/Bilal HusseinMOSCOW, June 30. /TASS/. The framework agreement to end the war in Lebanon, concluded by Israel and the Lebanese government, risks collapsing before actually taking effect; the lack of results from the Anchorage summit influences the talks on the Ukrainian conflict settlement; and Germany is preparing to reinstate the military draft. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia. Media: Peace in Lebanon once again under threat The framework agreement to end the war in Lebanon, concluded on June 26 with US mediation between the Lebanese government and Israel, risks collapsing even in its initial stages. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stated that Beirut will not accept these agreements since, in his opinion, the document does not guarantee its rights. Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem described the Lebanese-Israeli agreement as a "capitulation" and vowed that his fighters would continue to resist Israeli forces until they withdraw completely from southern Lebanon. Read alsoIraq opposes Israeli aggression in Lebanon — envoyAgreement on Lebanon provides for gradual withdrawal of Israeli forcesNetanyahu praises agreement on Lebanon as 'blow to Iran,' vows not to withdraw troops The main achievement of the negotiations and the agreement was that Israel and Lebanon reached an understanding on the fate of two border areas, where a pilot program will be implemented to replace the Israel Defense Forces with the Lebanese Armed Forces, Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted. Nevertheless, it is evident that Israel has preserved the freedom to act against Hezbollah under the terms of the agreement. According to the newspaper, the secret protocols to the Lebanese-Israeli agreements contain a provision stating that Tel Aviv will reserve the right to act "against both emerging and immediate threats." The Shia group Hezbollah will play a key role in implementing the framework agreement on a ceasefire in Lebanon, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. According to her, it remains unclear how the Lebanese army will be able to retain control over its territory and curb anti-Israeli activities. As for Israel, it appears that it has no intention of keeping control over the buffer zone and would prefer to have neutral forces on the border rather than hostile non-state actors, the expert emphasized. Nikolay Sukhov, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, noted that the opposing sides will, in fact, be unable to comply with the terms of the Washington agreement. At present, the Lebanese army lacks the resources and capabilities to disarm Hezbollah, though it will likely attempt to imitate the process. Hezbollah could theoretically hand over some of its obsolete small arms for scrap metal, but its pride will not allow it to fully comply with the Israelis’ demands, the expert noted. "At the moment, Israel is holding part of its neighbor’s territory, from which it has expelled the local population and is carrying out the complete destruction of civilian infrastructure so that no one will return there in the future. It is not necessary for the Israelis to annex these lands afterward; it is enough for them to maintain control over the territory in order to control the region’s water resources and fertile lands," Sukhov stressed. Vedomosti: How lack of results from Anchorage summit changes Ukrainian conflict Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the need for the complete liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya, and also noted that no agreements were reached at the August 2025 summit in Anchorage between him and his US counterpart Donald Trump. He also expressed doubt that European leaders could have convinced Trump to change his position on Ukraine. In this regard, he reaffirmed Moscow’s readiness to continue dialogue with the US once the active phase of the Iranian conflict has ended. Read alsoRussia ready to continue discussing Anchorage modalities with US — Putin Russia remains committed to its core positions, which include the entire Donbass and territories under Russian control, as well as the continuation of talks on the remaining issues, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, told Vedomosti. According to him, the pattern under which every subsequent attempt at diplomacy will take place under worse conditions for Ukraine, with growing demands from Moscow, has not changed. As for the role of the US as a mediator in settling the Ukrainian conflict, at this stage the Americans are not particularly interested in diplomacy, not least because they lack a clear vision of the desired outcome of the war and shift depending on the current state of affairs. "Moscow makes a clear distinction between the US, which, despite all the limitations, still demonstrates an ability to show some flexibility in order to advance diplomacy, and Europe, which maintains a rock-solid stance: no concessions to Russia," Lukyanov emphasized. He said that, unlike the Europeans, the Americans could play a role in a political and diplomatic settlement, but their participation would be limited. "We shouldn't expect a decisive contribution to the settlement from Trump and his team. Simply put, he just doesn’t need it that much," the expert stressed. The main conclusion that can be drawn from the Russian president’s speech is that the narrative promoted by Europe and Kiev about a turning point in the fighting in Ukraine’s favor is a lie, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, emphasized. The expert noted that the statement about Russia’s desire to liberate Donbass and Novorossiya is a signal to Trump. "If the US withdraws its proposals made in Anchorage, then Moscow will also withdraw from the compromises it was prepared to make at that time," the expert stated. At the same time, US mediation remains relevant, but only on the condition that the Trump administration does not adopt the vision of the Europeans and Ukrainians. "There can be no other mediator from the West besides Trump at this time," Suslov pointed out. According to him, the Trump administration itself has not yet fully defined its negotiating position. There is the hawkish viewpoint promoted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. On the other hand, there is the position of special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and US Vice President JD Vance. "Ultimately, the US position will be formed based on an objective analysis of the situation on the battlefield. It is in Russia’s interest to convince Trump and his team that the narrative promoted by the Europeans and Ukrainians is not based in reality. That is exactly what Vladimir Putin was doing," Suslov concluded. Izvestia: German authorities preparing country for reintroduction of military draft Fifteen years after suspending mandatory military service, Germany once again faces a historic decision. Thomas Rowekamp, chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Committee, said that if there are not enough volunteers for the Bundeswehr (the armed forces), Germany will be compelled to reinstate mandatory military service as early as 2027. A final decision must be made no later than July 31, 2027. However, the idea of reinstating conscription faces considerable opposition from German society, particularly among the younger generation. In December 2025, the Bundestag passed a law updating military service, which took effect on January 1, 2026. While this law did not reinstate compulsory military service in its traditional form, it created a mechanism that could lead to it. The new law has three key elements. First, a mandatory survey will be conducted among all 18-year-olds, including both young men and women. Starting in 2026, all individuals reaching the age of majority will receive a letter from the Bundeswehr containing a QR code to access an online questionnaire evaluating the potential conscript’s motivation, physical fitness, and readiness for service. Second, the new law introduces mandatory military registration and medical examinations in Germany. Starting in July 2027, all men of draft age (those born in 2008) will be required to register and undergo a medical examination. Third, the law introduces specific troop strength targets. The law sets a clear target for the Bundeswehr for 2026 of between 186,000 and 190,000 servicemen. If these targets are not met on a voluntary basis, the Bundestag may trigger "conscription as needed." Germany is considering a return to conscription for one main reason: a severe shortage of volunteers. According to Rowekamp, the Bundeswehr needs 50% more contract and career servicemen than it currently has. However, young people are in no hurry to join the military, and the initial results of the survey are unpromising. Of the nearly 300,000 questionnaires sent out, only 530 people agreed to perform voluntary military service in 2026. Roughly one in five respondents expressed interest in serving, but the actual number of recruits remains low. Political analyst Maxim Reva told Izvestia that on July 31, 2027, the Bundestag must make a final decision: whether to keep the army on a voluntary basis or to reinstate mandatory conscription. "There is just over a year left. During this time, the Bundeswehr must show whether the volunteer system can provide the necessary increase in manpower. So far, the numbers suggest otherwise. If Germany returns to conscription, it will be one of the most significant changes in defense policy since the end of the Cold War. However, public resistance remains high. If the government decides to reinstate compulsory service, it will face logistical and organizational challenges, as well as widespread opposition from those most directly affected: the younger generation of Germans," Reva noted. Izvestia: Russia's trade volume could reach nearly one trillion dollars Russia’s foreign trade turnover in 2026 could grow by 10% and reach nearly one trillion dollars. According to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank, exports of goods and services will near $525 billion, while imports will reach about $420 billion. The main driver of this growth will be revenue from the sale of high-priced oil. However, the situation will hinge on the conflict in the Middle East. After a brief lull, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified once again. Experts told Izvestia that there is a high probability that Russia’s trade turnover in 2026 will indeed near one trillion dollars. Vladimir Yeremin, a senior researcher at the Structural Research Laboratory of the Russian Presidential Academy, noted that the main driver will be increasing revenue from the sale of high-priced oil. Disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz caused by a new round of conflict in the Middle East are the main factor behind the rise in global oil prices. At one point, Brent and Urals crude were trading above $110 per barrel. However, after the 60-day memorandum was signed, prices quickly declined. At the same time, the energy crisis is not the only factor. Actual trade volumes have also been rising. "We’ve now seen significant growth in the agro-industrial complex, the high-tech services sector, the medical industry, and the deep processing segment," Artur Leer, president of the Association of Exporters and Importers and managing partner at Lex Alliance, emphasized. He added that the machine-building sector has also seen notable expansion. Among Russia’s key partners, China remains the clear leader. According to Chinese customs, Russia’s trade with China grew by nearly 23% over the first five months of this year, reaching $110 billion. Russia primarily exports oil, natural gas, and coal to China. Other exports include copper ore, copper, timber, fuel, and seafood. Meanwhile, Moscow imports automobiles, machinery, industrial and specialized equipment, children’s toys, and alcohol from China. India also remains among Russia’s top trading partners, having substantially boosted its imports of Russian oil and petroleum products in recent years, expert Olga Gogaladze noted. Russia also maintains relations with Turkey, which provides logistics and supplies a wide range of goods. The CIS countries - primarily Belarus and Kazakhstan - also make a considerable contribution to trade volume; they remain Russia’s key partners in industry and trade, she explained. To accelerate the growth of Russia’s foreign trade, it is necessary to increase exports to friendly countries in Asia and Africa, as well as to the BRICS nations and the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, and not just in the oil and gas sector. It is also worth broadening cooperation in the fields of nuclear energy, metals, food, and green technologies, Freedom Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova stressed. Kommersant: Dollar pulls back from its three-month high against ruble The Russian ruble ended its June losing streak. During over-the-counter trading on June 29, the dollar dropped to 77 rubles per dollar, retreating from its three-month high. The end of the tax period, combined with increased sales of export proceeds, allowed currency speculators to secure substantial profits. In the coming days, currency sales will decrease, and the Bank of Russia will step up its purchases. Nevertheless, market participants expect the exchange rate to remain within the 75-80 rubles per dollar range. Throughout last week (on June 22-28), the ruble depreciated rapidly, reaching a new three-month high last Friday. By the end of the week, the dollar exchange rate had reached 78.87 rubles per dollar, 5.9 rubles higher than at the start of the week. The last time the US currency rose so rapidly was four years ago. Amid verbal interventions by financial authorities, the dollar climbed from 54.5 rubles to 60.92 rubles. However, "any strong movement is accompanied by corrections," Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasilyev told Kommersant. The effect was strengthened by exporters' active currency sales in connection with finalizing tax payments to the budget. According to analysts, negative fundamental factors will continue to weigh on the ruble at least through the beginning of the month. For instance, the price of Russian oil fell from $87-$95 per barrel in April and May to $50 per barrel by the end of June. Consequently, July-August will see a drop in export revenues flowing into the country. However, starting on July 7, the impact of the Central Bank’s foreign exchange purchases will ease, as the Russian Finance Ministry will be forced to cut the volume of foreign currency it buys on the market due to falling oil prices. According to expert Mikhail Vasilyev, the volume of these operations will decrease from 9.9 billion rubles per day in July to 6.5 billion rubles. Consequently, the Finance Ministry’s foreign exchange purchases will once again become a secondary factor influencing the ruble exchange rate. "The ruble has already passed through the main phase of its weakening trend, and the dollar exchange rate will remain within the range of 75-80 rubles per dollar," financial analyst Vladimir Yevstifeyev stressed. 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