Press review: Putin-Trump-Xi summit prospects rise as Witkoff met Zelensky in Oslo

Press review: Putin-Trump-Xi summit prospects rise as Witkoff met Zelensky in Oslo Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, October 21stUS Special Presidential Envoy Steven Witkoff and Vladimir Zelensky© AP Photo/Francisco SecoMOSCOW, October 21. /TASS/. The chances of a trilateral meeting between the presidents of Russia, the United States and China are rising, as a Ukrainian delegation led by Vladimir Zelensky met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo. Meanwhile, the global fuel crisis has given a boost to the market for electric vehicles. These stories topped Wednesday's newspaper headlines in Russia. Kommersant: Likelihood of Putin-Trump-Xi meeting increases A historic meeting between the leaders of Russia, the United States and China could take place on the sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China’s Shenzhen on November 18 or 19. A summit in this format has never been held before, and some experts have already called it a new Yalta, even as no direct parallels can be drawn with the meeting between the three major powers in the anti-Hitler coalition in February 1945. However, the Russian and US leaders are expected to attend the same event alongside China’s president for the first time in some time. And even as neither side has yet formally confirmed that a separate trilateral meeting will be held in Shenzhen, the prospects for such a meeting are growing. On Monday evening, US President Donald Trump said, when reporters asked him whether he was ready to meet with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping: "I would do it if they want to have it." "Not so much for Ukraine because Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine," the US leader said. "We would schedule a meeting based on denuclearization," he added. Trump did not clarify what he meant by denuclearization. He has repeatedly used this term when discussing Russia and China before, though the latest application of the concept was atypical. According to the latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia possesses 4,400 operational nuclear warheads, the United States has 3,700, and China has 620. According to Vladimir Orlov, PIR Center director and Moscow State Institute of International Relations professor, from the perspective of Russia’s national interests, trilateral agreements on strategic nuclear arms control, as well as a moratorium on new nuclear tests between Moscow, Washington and Beijing, would be "a step in the right direction," albeit in principle, as neither of the three sides, primarily China, "is currently ready for that" for a variety of reasons, the expert told Kommersant. "Moscow has no reason whatsoever to put pressure on Beijing in these circumstances, especially since the issue has not been examined at an expert level," Orlov said. "Therefore, Trump’s remark that he would like to discuss ‘denuclearization’ could be anything - another bout of ‘verbal diarrhea’ or a good intention on the part of the president who views himself as a global figure or even an echo of discussions he might have had with his inner circle at the White House - but certainly it is not a reality at present," he argued. At the same time, the expert noted that a potential trilateral summit would be "a good venue and rostrum for the three nuclear powers to issue a non-specific and brief statement, as broad as possible, on three points of nuclear weapons." It is equally important, Orlov continued, that such a statement would help reopen professional, expert dialogues on these issues. "I mean dialogues, mostly between Russia and the United States, as the only nuclear superpowers today. Alternative formats have not matured yet," the expert concluded. Vedomosti: Why Ukraine needed Oslo meeting with Witkoff On Tuesday evening, a Ukrainian delegation led by Vladimir Zelensky met with a team of US negotiators, led by US leader Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Oslo, Norway. The other top US negotiator, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, could not attend in person for health reasons but joined via video link. Zelensky, for his part, was accompanied by EU and NATO officials, including Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. In addition, the Ukrainian media said, Zelensky’s delegation included Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service head Rustem Umerov, Kirill Budanov, the head of the presidential office, designated as a terrorist and extremist in Russia, first deputy head of the presidential office Sergey Kislitsa and Pavel Palisa, a deputy head of the presidential office. Witkoff arrived in St. Petersburg following the Oslo talks, where he could potentially hold another meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Tuesday, The New York Times reported that Kushner and Witkoff might visit St. Petersburg on October 21. NYT reporters said the meeting would most likely take place there. The meeting between Zelensky, the European officials and Witkoff shows how the peace negotiation process has gathered pace under pressure from Trump, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. Trump is using the diesel deal with Russia and the suspension of the Graham bill sanctions as leverage to pressure Kiev, he argued. As for the likelihood of a deal materializing, it is lower than last year because the current diplomatic structure of these talks remains very fragile. "Trump is not in a position to overcome the differences between Russia and Ukraine," the expert maintained. Amid the escalation over the past few weeks, Koshkin continued, finding compromises has become more difficult. According to the expert, Norway was selected as a venue because of its relative neutrality in terms of its association with European bureaucratic elites: the country is not an EU member but is a NATO ally. Given the fragility of the current stage of the negotiation process, Ukraine might have used the Oslo meeting as a pretext to buy time, Koshkin emphasized. All the latest statements from Zelensky, including his criticism of Trump and the US as a whole, as well as his overt attempts to address the American president’s political opponents in Congress without going through him, do not suggest that Zelensky will make the necessary concessions, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the rest of Donbass, or that he would accept other proposals put forward by the Trump administration, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. There is an assumption that all those positive proposals put forward by Witkoff, including proposals to restore energy cooperation with Russia or provide partial sanctions relief, are aimed at persuading Russia to drop its demand for the complete liberation of Donbass: Moscow will not accept that. "Given this, these American proposals will prove unacceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. But it would be better for us if the first No comes from the mouth of the Europeans or the Ukrainians, so Washington could blame them for disrupting talks," Suslov said. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Fuel crisis accelerates EV market The Middle East war and the resulting rise in oil prices have had an unexpected effect, spurring electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid car sales. European countries and Russia, where consumers are facing fuel shortages and rising prices, are seeing a surge in demand for EVs. The climate agenda failed to achieve what has now happened due to disruptions to global hydrocarbon supplies, namely a reduction in the share of gasoline-powered vehicles sold worldwide. In Europe, EV sales rose by 70% year-on-year in September. More than 300,000 new electric vehicles were registered across 17 European countries, bringing their share of the European market to nearly 33%. According to Western news agencies, nearly 2 million new electric vehicles were registered in the EU in the first nine months of this year, up 38% from the same period last year. According to experts, higher hydrocarbon prices and fuel shortages have driven up the share of electric vehicles in the global new-car market. In the first half of 2026, the share of gasoline-powered cars with internal combustion engines in the global new-car market fell to 49% from 52% a year earlier, data from Mobility Global showed. Moreover, it dropped below 50% for the first time since the 1920s, when automobiles began to spread widely across the globe. In 2021, they accounted for 73%. Russia is also experiencing rapid growth in EV sales. In September, 3,184 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were sold in Russia, a 155% increase from the same month of 2025, according to data from the Avtostat analytical agency. More than 11,500 new EVs were sold in the first nine months of this year, up 44% from the previous year. However, the share of EVs in the broader Russian passenger car market stands at just 2.6%. Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Global, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that demand for hybrid cars will grow even after the fuel crisis ends. "Hybrid cars make it possible to save on gasoline while still enabling drivers to refuel at conventional gas stations, which is extremely convenient for long-distance trips. However, much depends on the car price and the distance driven, as the extra cost of a hybrid car could take years to pay off," he argued. Meanwhile, in the EU, steady demand for EVs and hybrids is driven not only by the current fuel market situation but also by energy policy, Pavel Griboc, an associate professor at the Presidential Academy, noted. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Suspended US sanctions fail to narrow discount on Russian crude Trump’s move to suspend the imposition of the "sanctions from hell" and the diesel deal between the United States and Russia have not reduced the discount on Free-on-Board (FOB) prices of Russian oil at ports of loading: Russian oil prices are growing alongside global oil prices. Moreover, the Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) price of Russian crude often trades at a premium to Brent at ports of destination. According to data from Argus, the discount on Urals oil to Brent at Baltic ports expanded to $25.3 per barrel by mid-October from September’s $22.6, while at Black Sea ports it reached $28.4-$29.3 per barrel (compared with $26.9-$27.8 last month). Sergey Frolov, a managing partner at NEFT Research, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the discount on Russian oil is gradually increasing amid higher freight costs and mounting shipping risks at Black Sea ports. However, positive news related to the suspension of US sanctions could spur interest in Russian crude and reduce the discount range. This is unlikely to constitute a sustainable trend, though, as reactions to statements from politicians are usually short-lived, while the discount depends more on fundamentals, the expert argued. Shipping risks now reach beyond the Black Sea to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway used by vessels transiting the Suez Canal that is relevant for tankers leaving Russia’s western ports. While the Houthis have not yet targeted tankers carrying Russian oil, this has not lowered freight and insurance expenses for such vessels. Finally, Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the United States has temporarily suspended sanctions only on Russian diesel exports. No other sanctions relief has been granted, including in relation to Russian oil exports. Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Global, shares this view. The executive order issued by the White House on October 16 left existing restrictions unchanged, while the imposition of new measures was suspended, pending a possible future review, he explained. Should the situation stabilize, the economic rationale for maintaining this relief might weaken. However, this does not necessarily mean an automatic tightening of restrictions, the expert added. Both scenarios remain possible, Chernov believes. If demand for Russian oil from China and India remains steady and the pool of available carriers grows, the discount will narrow, but the sustainability of this effect will depend on specific US licenses, export routes and the geopolitical situation, Dmitry Tyun, CEO of DA Consulting, said. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Experts assess factors driving USD depreciation The official dollar exchange rate has slipped below 83 rubles per $1 for the first time in two months, while the yuan rate has declined below 12.4 rubles to a new record low. The trend toward moderate ruble appreciation prevailed throughout last week, which experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta attributed to favorable oil market conditions, the approaching tax payment period, and a slight improvement in the geopolitical climate. The ruble largely appreciated amid elevated oil prices that have persisted in the market since August, Natalya Vashchelyuk, a senior analyst at Pervaya brokerage, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. According to the Russian Economic Development Ministry, average Urals prices rose 37% in September to $92 per barrel from $67 in August. By mid-October, they had climbed above $115 per barrel, which, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko said, is 25% higher than the previous month’s levels. Geopolitical developments have also bolstered the Russian currency. Earlier this month, the US and Russian presidents reached an agreement on Russian diesel supplies to the global market. "This means that the sanctions rhetoric has softened rather than intensified. Trump, for one, put on hold the so-called ‘sanctions from hell’ bill against Russia in his latest executive order, providing support for the ruble," Dudchenko explained. Although the diesel deal does indeed expand export opportunities, the announced volumes of 300,000 metric tons in October, 500,000 metric tons in November and 1 million metric tons in December are not particularly significant for the ruble exchange rate. According to Mikhail Vasilyev, a lead analyst at Sovcombank, this will contribute only 0.4% to the ruble’s appreciation by year-end. "The market has calmed somewhat following a series of fluctuations, including sharp movements last summer and at the beginning of the fall. However, this does not mean that volatility has fully subsided. The main driver of the ruble’s appreciation is high oil prices rather than positive geopolitical signals," said Valeria Popova, a senior analyst at Ricom Trust. According to Vashchelyuk, in the second half of October, the USD rate could settle within a range of 80-84 rubles per dollar and 11.9-12.6 rubles per yuan, assuming no major changes in external conditions. Dudchenko expects the US currency to trade between 82 rubles and 87 rubles in the fourth quarter. 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