Press review: Russia-US-Ukraine peace hopes rise as Moscow offers Iran-US mediation

Press review: Russia-US-Ukraine peace hopes rise as Moscow offers Iran-US mediation Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, October 22nd© Kristina Solovyova/POOL/TASSMOSCOW, October 22. /TASS/. The prospects for peace and trilateral talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine following the October 21 St. Petersburg meeting; Moscow’s willingness to mediate between Tehran and Washington; and Russia’s potential agreement with the US to start shipping fertilizers alongside diesel. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia. Media: Chances of peace and Russia-US-Ukraine talks following St. Petersburg meeting US efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have resumed, perhaps the main visible and indisputable outcome of the October 21 talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg. The envoy left Russia with news of the release of an American citizen from a Russian prison and Moscow’s assurances that the proposals he brought would be reviewed. In addition, Putin expressed readiness to launch trilateral talks in the Russia-US-Ukraine format. The talks are scheduled for mid-November, after the US congressional elections, which are likely to bring significant changes. Witkoff’s visit to St. Petersburg wrapped up a busy diplomatic round, international affairs expert Nikolay Novik told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The St. Petersburg talks were preceded by consultations in Oslo. Witkoff and Kushner, who participated remotely, met with Zelensky, European leaders, and EU and NATO representatives there, the expert recalled. "It is likely that Witkoff presented an updated plan to end the conflict and a proposal for direct talks involving Trump and Zelensky. There may also have been discussions about a meeting between Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping in China during the APEC summit on November 18-19: Washington doesn’t need a technical pause, but rather an outcome from the summit that can be presented as a tangible result," Novik said. At the same time, the package of conditions that the US envoy might have brought - if these were the ones recently mentioned in the Western media - does not suit Russia, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin told Vedomosti. According to the expert, Moscow agreed to discuss not so much the settlement itself as possible ways to establish a security framework for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends. "By 2027, we will most likely still be in the midst of ongoing hostilities, though the US administration had certainly hoped to achieve tangible results by the end of this year," Trenin noted. The expert stressed that the future prospects of the negotiation process, including the development of specific terms, will be determined by the actual situation on the battlefield. The current round of talks differs from previous ones because the agenda will include the issue of security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine, an issue that was not included in negotiations with Kiev following the Istanbul consultations, Nikolay Silayev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, said. However, the expert does not expect the upcoming negotiations with Ukraine to conclude any differently from the previous ones. "The main reason for the lack of confidence in a breakthrough is the public statements made by Ukrainian and European officials. Their position remains the same: an unconditional ceasefire," he stressed. Izvestia: Russia ready to mediate between Tehran and Washington Moscow is prepared to act as a mediator in settling the conflict between the US and Iran, provided both parties are interested. Talks between Washington and Tehran have reached an impasse, partly due to the unresolved question of Iran’s nuclear program. Russia previously proposed transporting Iran’s enriched uranium to its territory, but this initiative has yet to receive support. The eight-month conflict between the US and Iran has stalled. Washington’s initial plan to quickly topple the country’s government has failed. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult, and diplomats have yet to make progress toward resolving the conflict. Under these circumstances, Russia could assume the role of mediator. Moscow is ready to take such a step, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told Izvestia. "If all parties express interest, then we are ready [to act as mediators]," he noted. "We previously offered our services regarding how the Iranian nuclear program could be resolved, but our proposals have not yet been supported," the senior diplomat said. Thanks to its good relations with both Iran and Israel, Russia occupies a unique position as a universal intermediary in the Middle East, political analyst Alexander Kargin said. Moreover, Moscow is currently pursuing a negotiating track with the US as well. The expert noted that Pakistan, another potential mediator, has no diplomatic relations with Israel at all, whereas Russia does not face this problem. Russian mediation would at least help establish a ceasefire, paving the way for a comprehensive resolution of the crisis, Kargin said. The analyst expects that, ultimately, the practical necessity of Moscow’s involvement will prevail, and the parties will bring Russia into the negotiations. At the same time, according to him, the parties to the conflict have diametrically opposed views on the nuclear program. While Russia’s proposal to remove the uranium would be ideal, heightened tensions in the Middle East are preventing the parties from making even the smallest compromises, Kargin stressed. Izvestia: Russia may begin exporting fertilizers to US alongside diesel Russia is ready to supply mineral fertilizers and fuel to the US, but expanding fertilizer exports would require a reallocation of shipments: currently, about 69% of fertilizer production is exported, experts said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed the prospect of supplying fertilizers to the US market on a significant scale. In addition, the first shipment of 40,000 metric tons of Russian diesel fuel is scheduled to leave for the US on October 22, with other countries set to receive shipments by the end of the year. During a meeting with US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg on October 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow could supply fertilizers to the American market in large quantities. However, it is difficult to gauge potential export volumes, since a significant portion of Russian production is already under contract with foreign buyers, Denis Prikhodko, an equity market analyst at Alfa-Capital Asset Management, told Izvestia. According to him, shipments will increase gradually, primarily through the redistribution of export flows among foreign markets rather than through higher production. Increasing fertilizer and diesel fuel shipments to the US market could help bring down prices for these products both in the US and globally, which is especially important for agricultural producers. Such agreements with Russia would benefit both the Donald Trump administration and the Russian authorities, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, stressed. The European factor is also relevant. According to political scientist and German studies expert Yegor Belyachkov, the current leadership of most European countries will likely react negatively to an agreement between Russia and the US on fertilizer supplies, just as they did with the diesel deal. This approach directly reflects European countries' policy in recent years, under which the slightest compromise between Moscow and Washington prompts EU nations to attempt to block such agreements. Brussels could do so by tightening sanctions against Russia and coordinating with American Democrats, the expert said. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Possibility of routing Persian Gulf oil around Strait of Hormuz New pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and lead to seaports outside the Persian Gulf will address the problem of supplying Middle Eastern oil to the global market. In five years, the strait may become obsolete for oil trade as shipments are redirected along new routes. This is not the first attempt to find alternative ways to deliver oil from Persian Gulf countries. Previously, this idea was also proposed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. According to him, the construction of oil pipelines will render the Strait of Hormuz "a worthless piece of water" in as little as two to three years. Bypass routes are currently more profitable, not because transporting oil via pipeline is inexpensive, but because of the increased costs linked to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Maxim Malkov, a Kept partner and head of the firm’s oil and gas practice, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Before the crisis, tanker transit cost the same as or less than pipeline transport, while now, that balance has reversed, the expert noted. However, maritime transport is cheaper in peacetime. The cost of pumping oil through a pipeline is up to five times higher than the cost of moving it by oil tanker per kilometer, Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company, pointed out. Existing alternative routes do not resolve the problem because their combined capacity is less than half of the volumes that previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz, Malkov emphasized. Moreover, the Red Sea poses its own risks, such as Houthi attacks, and there are virtually no alternatives to tankers for transporting refined petroleum products, the expert noted. But even if the existing infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is expanded and new oil pipelines are built in parallel, the economic viability of these projects will be questionable, economist Boris Kopeikin stressed. If the situation in the region stabilizes in the long term, oil will once again follow the traditional route, through the Strait of Hormuz, he said. At the same time, the main advantage of alternative routes is the diversification of risks. They reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and allow exports to continue in the event of shipping restrictions, but they do not guarantee complete supply security, Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at the Implementa consulting firm, said. According to Abelev, pipelines are no safer than maritime transport. They are vulnerable to drone and missile attacks, and protecting them along their entire length is quite difficult. Unlike seagoing vessels, a pipeline is stationary and its location is precisely known. It cannot be replaced or rerouted. Maritime transport offers greater flexibility. Oil pipelines for the Persian Gulf states are an expensive insurance policy, not a cheap alternative, the expert stressed. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: French authorities trying to ease protests with talks and concessions Ahead of another round of large-scale protests scheduled for the weekend, the authorities are trying to reach a deal with the protesters. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu met with union representatives on October 21. The meeting produced no results; the government did not receive any promises to call off the protests. In fact, a general strike has been announced. Nevertheless, Lecornu remains undeterred. The government has proposed an aid program for businesses affected by the unrest. Following his trip to the Persian Gulf states, President Emmanuel Macron issued a statement saying that he had secured additional fuel shipments to bring down prices in the country. The authorities are hoping these measures will have a rapid effect. Rather than resorting to force, the French authorities have decided to address the wave of protests sweeping the country through persuasion. They have chosen to respond to the demonstrators’ main demands. Perhaps there is no other option: last weekend, more than half a million French citizens took to the streets across the country. The protests are no longer limited to schoolchildren and their parents who are dissatisfied with the education system. Labor unions are actively participating in the protests, which are directed against the rising cost of living and ultimately against the economic policies of the current president and government. At the same time, the situation in the country is gradually returning to normal, although this will take some time, Tatyana Zvereva, a professor at the World Economy and World Politics Faculty of the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "The composition of the protesters is complex. It includes high school students, members of the ‘Yellow Vests’ movement, and others, including members of fringe political organizations," she noted. According to the expert, the French authorities are pursuing two main lines of action. On the one hand, they are restoring order, which society as a whole expects. The far-right National Rally party has been particularly vocal in demanding this. On the other hand, the authorities are negotiating with moderate protesters. "The logic is this: the most aggressive protesters must be held accountable, and positive-minded citizens must be reached out to by addressing their socio-economic demands. However, the second point is much more difficult to achieve. Therefore, it seems unlikely that we can expect quick results from the negotiations. But dialogue can help defuse the situation and let off some steam," Zvereva emphasized. 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