Press review: Ukraine conflict fuels EU ultra-right as Trump seeks Iran pressure via Oman

Press review: Ukraine conflict fuels EU ultra-right as Trump seeks Iran pressure via Oman Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, August 19th© AP Photo/Alastair GrantMOSCOW, August 19. /TASS/. The Ukraine conflict fuels ultra-right radicals in Europe, and US leader Donald Trump threatens to bomb Oman. Meanwhile, Washington and Beijing may trigger a new Cold War in AI. These stories topped Wednesday's newspaper headlines across Russia. Izvestia: Ukraine conflict gives rise to ultra-right radicals in Europe Right-wing radicals are becoming increasingly active in Europe. According to the EU police, in 2025, the number of terrorist incidents involving them rose fivefold, and the number of arrests in such cases remains several times higher than a decade ago. At the same time, some of the radicals are already gaining combat experience in Ukraine, where an ideal setting has been created for them. Kiev encourages the glorification of Hitler's accomplices and creates a pantheon for Ukrainian WWII-era collaborators. Such a policy is becoming a serious challenge to international and regional security, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The rise of radicals in Europe is largely linked to European migration policy, said political analyst Yevgeny Mikhailov. A significant part of the population is dissatisfied with the influx of refugees as it believes that the authorities focus more on the interests of newcomers than on the problems of their own citizens, he argued. This creates a favorable environment not only for legacy right-wing parties, but also for more radical movements. The Ukraine conflict also creates fertile ground for such movements: even Europol highlights how radicals can gain combat experience, acquire weapons and establish new connections with like-minded people from other countries there. Moreover, representatives of European right-wing movements, including Swedish, Croatian, Polish, Czech and other nationals, have been taking part in hostilities in Ukraine since 2014. Radical structures in Europe itself also maintain contacts with "colleagues" in Ukraine as they gather aid, provide information support and organize joint events. At the same time, the danger may come not only from radicals’ role in hostilities. "The glorification or political rehabilitation of historic movements with authoritarian, ultranationalist, or anti-Semitic elements can strengthen modern extremism. Europe must apply the same standards to everyone: extremism cannot be justified by geopolitical expediency," Matthias Moosdorf, a member of the German Bundestag and a politician of the AfD, stressed. For years, Russia has voiced its concern about the glorification of Nazism and collaborationism in Ukraine at UN venues, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. Moscow alerts the international community to the rewriting of WWII history, the revision of educational programs, and Kiev’s support for nationalist organizations. "In all these manifestations, we see a direct threat to the fundamental values of democracy and human rights, and a serious challenge to international and regional security and stability. And, of course, we cannot afford inaction," Alimov said. Izvestia: Trump seeking to put pressure on Iran through Oman The future of the Strait of Hormuz may now depend on Oman and Iran. Trump has already threatened to "bomb" the sultanate if it "gets in the way" of American plans. Such a harsh reaction was actually triggered by Washington being excluded from decision making on Hormuz, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia. The situation is delicate, with the United States and Oman being strategic partners, and the Senate already moving quickly to ban strikes without congressional approval. However, a new military operation is unlikely, and the White House may turn to economic pressure, experts say. The latest reaction from the White House was because the Americans are not taking part in direct negotiations on the waterway, Karasin explained: "Previously, there was no accord between Iran and Oman. And now they seem to be moving toward an agreement between the two countries located on opposite sides of the Strait of Hormuz. And exactly this caused the rejection by the United States, which does not participate in this potential compromise," the senator stressed. While before, the sultanate acted as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, now the White House is demanding that Muscat halt its rapprochement with Iran, said political analyst Alexander Kargin. The United States is building an anti-Iran bloc with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, and Trump is trying to keep Oman in this coalition, he maintained. Oman considering a division of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran runs counter to American strategy. Trump insists that control over this key waterway should not belong to regional players. Besides, a separate agreement between Muscat and Tehran excludes the UAE, Washington's most important ally, which also has access to the strait. With his harsh rhetoric, Trump is creating an "emotional swing," but no real strikes will be delivered, Kargin argued. Trump’s latest threats came immediately after the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced an understanding with Oman. The two sides agreed on a roadmap under which commercial vessels enter the Persian Gulf through Iran’s territorial waters and leave it through the sultanate’s waters. According to Kargin, the war between the United States and Iran may resume after the November midterms. Right now, Trump is avoiding escalation to prevent a surge in oil prices. The White House needs to wait for the vote, after which the fighting is likely to continue, as key disputes with Tehran have not been resolved. At the same time, the outcome of the election will not affect the president's plans, as the law still allows him to conduct military operations for 60 days without congressional approval. However, Iran itself may restart hostilities ahead of the elections, even as that would be a risky move for Tehran, with Trump gaining a powerful trump card so he can easily justify the need for strikes to American voters. In such a situation, the electorate traditionally rallies around the current leader, the expert concluded. Vedomosti: US, China may spark new Cold War in AI sphere The US Department of State is drafting an ultimatum to tell several dozen countries they must choose between the American camp and the Chinese one in the AI race. A draft letter seen by Reuters reveals that participants in the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO), established by China in July, will be excluded from the US-led Pax Silica coalition launched in 2025. China’s WAICO initiative involves 38 countries, including Russia, Iran, Brazil, Cuba, and Serbia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wrote in an article for the People’s Daily on August 11. Kazakhstan has been the only nation with dual membership in both initiatives. No comment on the situation has been received from the Kazakh embassy in the United States. Originally, the US approach to AI centered on giving businesses maximum freedom, while China has had greater state support and tighter oversight since the very beginning, Alexander Shchelokov, a junior researcher at the US and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Vedomosti. This balance has slightly changed already, and the output from the most powerful US models has been restricted amid the White House’s security-related concerns. "The United States is moving toward greater control, while China has generally maintained its current course. And there is the European Union which does not have a strong AI of its own but the bloc has built the best legislative framework that comprehensively regulates the entire sphere," he said. And the United States is the undisputed leader in advanced development and research, with its own technological base, Shchelokov argued. Meanwhile, China prioritizes accessibility. The rivalry in AI between Beijing and Washington can be likened to a new Cold War, albeit the analogy may not be exact, he continued. "The resemblance to the Cold War is evident in the idea of bloc confrontation. However, most countries seek to maintain relations with both sides, which currently causes the greatest irritation in Washington," Shchelokov concluded. While the two countries are developing both the technology and regulations, the United States is building a closed ecosystem of trusted partners around AI, while China, on the contrary, is promoting a model of wider international cooperation, particularly through open models, infrastructure projects, and institutions for countries in the Global South, Anna Sytnik, an expert on the BRICS-Russia Expert Council, told Vedomosti. The expert agreed that the AI sphere is a testing ground for a new Cold War, but she described it as a new form of confrontation, with the struggle in the AI era unfolding for key resources - chips, computing power, data, models, standards, technological alliances, and, of course, talent. She also highlighted the key feature of bloc logic: when third countries are no longer simply required to cooperate, but to choose one technological ecosystem and abandon the other. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Attacks on tankers driving oil prices up Problems with oil shipping may extend beyond the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil shipments in the Black, Red or Baltic seas lacking sufficient security. If the situation worsens along several routes at once, oil prices could soar to $100-110 per barrel, experts warn. On Tuesday, oil prices moved higher on trader concerns over supplies from the Middle East. A price rise accelerated amid faltering diplomacy toward resolving the conflict between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump said he was not planning to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran which expired on August 17. He also said he could not rule out a new escalation with Iran which would push oil prices higher. The conflict between Iran and the United States is putting significant pressure on the oil market because of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. However, risks to supplies have long gone beyond the waterway, experts emphasize. "Now, Brent is trading at about $91 per barrel, hovering near three-week lows. Prices are simultaneously supported by limited navigation across the Hormuz Strait, attacks in the Red Sea, and growing risks for Black Sea supplies," Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Global, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Brent prices can remain between $85 to $95 per barrel, testing the $100 level from time to time, he argued. "A spike to $100-110 too is possible, mostly if the situation worsens along several routes at once - say, if prolonged stoppage of shipments from Novorossiysk and Baltic ports is compounded by problems in Hormuz and the Red Sea," the analyst said. "A potential upside in oil prices remains, but Brent prices will trade in the $75-85 range in the baseline scenario amid escalation news. Even as attacks on tankers are broadening the geography of risks, they have not created a deficit comparable to the blockade of Hormuz," Tsifra Broker analyst Dmitry Vishnevsky said. According to Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, the likelihood of oil prices returning to a strong growth trajectory remains high. Further price increases are being curbed by countries actively tapping their reserves, he explained, referring primarily to the United States and China, which has accumulated significant oil reserves. Kommersant: UN sees global capital changing routes In 2025, global foreign direct investment increased by 6% to $1.6 trillion, revised country data from the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicate. The nature of investor activity has changed, with investment in the construction of data centers globally rising the most, or by $235 billion, while investment in oil and gas projects increased by $38 billion and in semiconductor production by a mere $13 billion. The United States remained the largest recipient of investment last year, even as investment volumes saw a 2% drop to $277.3 billion. Singapore replaced Hong Kong as the second-largest recipient globally, while China, which remained in fourth place amid weak domestic demand and exports to other markets, also reduced the share of incoming investment. Interestingly, the fastest growth rate of foreign investment in 2025 compared to 2024 was recorded in Russia, with an almost 12-fold increase to $25.3 billion. However, the trend does not indicate greater interest from foreign investors but rather the locked-in capital factor, UNCTAD believes. Yaroslav Kabakov, director for strategy at Finam, agrees that the increase does not indicate a return of conventional foreign investors to Russia. "Friendly jurisdictions, financial intermediaries, reinvestments and production localization projects are playing an increasing role," the expert said. As regards global investment flows, an end to the model of ‘globalization at any cost’ has been the key trend here, he added. "Funds go where they feel safer. Capital tends to be close to the sales market or where supply chains can be controlled," Kabakov told Kommersant. Therefore, competition for investment is being won by the United States, India, Southeast Asian nations, and Singapore and Luxembourg, among other financial hubs, he concluded. 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