The US and Iran have been exchanging regular strikes for nearly two weeks following the collapse of a fragile ceasefire deal reached in spring. Both sides have accused each other of violating the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – an agreement signed last month that was expected to serve as a roadmap for the final settlement.
Washington and Tehran particularly clashed over the fate of the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil shipments. Iran maintains it should define the rules for the ships passing through the strait under the MoU while the US demands the Islamic Republic fully “reopen” it to international navigation.
Neither side has since demonstrated any signs of backing down as both Washington and Tehran have fallen back into escalatory rhetoric, with exchanges of fire continuing on a daily basis.
The latest outbreak of hostilities between the US and Iran began on July 7, when Washington announced a new round of “powerful strikes” targeting the Islamic Republic. The US said that the strikes followed Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. While Tehran has not officially accepted responsibility for it, Iranian media reported that one of the vessels was struck after “ignoring repeated warnings.”
Tehran also repeatedly stated that traffic through the strategic waterway should be conducted strictly through the routes officially designated by Iran, while calling what it called a US-backed route along the Omani coast “illegal.”
Following the tanker incidents, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said American forces struck more than 80 targets in Iran in response to a “clear violation of the ceasefire.”
The Iranian Foreign Ministry called the move an MoU violation, with the nation’s military vowing a “decisive response.” Iranian media then reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the military launched missiles and drones at 85 “key US military facilities” across the Middle East.
Shortly after the strikes began, US President Donald Trump declared the April ceasefire with Iran “over” and called the Iranian leadership “scum.” On July 13, he told Congress that he had resumed “limited defensive strikes,” while the US military reported daily attacks on dozens of Iranian targets.
The White House reportedly claimed the move gave Trump a new 60-day window to continue operations without seeking Congressional consent. He later threatened to expand attacks on civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if Tehran refused US demands – a threat that was acted on within days.
Trump also claimed the US would “take over” the Strait of Hormuz and charge vessels for passage, declared himself Tehran’s “number one target,” and threatened to “completely decimate” Iran if it targeted him.
Tehran condemned “the aggressive attacks carried out by the US terrorist army” under a “false pretext,” while Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed “severe punishment” for the strikes.
Top negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf said Washington would pay the price for not honoring its MoU commitments. “The era of one-sided deals is over,” he said, adding that “reality is knocking."
In a July 13 statement, the IRGC said “the Strait of Hormuz is our territory” and argued that it would remain open only if the US ended its “illegal… military interventions” in the area. Tehran announced the strait’s closure in response to US strikes in early July; the American military disputed the claim, but Reuters-cited shipping data showed tanker traffic falling to its lowest level in two months.
A senior Iranian intelligence official told RT last Thursday that Tehran has a plan for “escalating the war” that is “full of surprises,” warning that “the entire region will pay the price” if the US continues targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure as part of its “war of attrition.”
The Pentagon has confirmed at least four American soldiers killed since the latest escalation began in early July. Nearly 100 service members have been injured, US Department of War spokesman Sean Parnell said, adding that most injuries were minor and 96% of those affected had returned to duty.
The New York Times reported on Monday that the Pentagon was concealing the true scale of US casualties, saying dozens of soldiers had been injured in three unreported Iranian strikes on US forces in Jordan and that several helicopters were also damaged.
US strikes on Iran killed at least 50 people and injured more than 500, AP reported over the weekend. Both sides have reported strikes on military and infrastructure sites, often publishing videos online.
The IRGC claimed last week to have hit military bases in Jordan and Kuwait, a US drone command center, and an AI hub and drone storage facility in Bahrain, while also saying it destroyed a HIMARS launcher and a Patriot air defense system.
CENTCOM did not comment on the Iranian claims, instead reporting attacks on “dozens of targets at multiple locations,” including Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats.
Iranian media reported US attacks on bridges in central and southern Iran, as well as on Iranshahr Airport and a southern port city. The IRGC stressed that the bridge strikes caused civilian casualties.
The hostilities and Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have also pushed oil prices higher. Brent and WTI crude rose to five-week highs of $91.34 and $85.03 a barrel on Tuesday, Reuters reported, up more than 20% since July 7.
The UN has repeatedly voiced its concern over the latest escalation, while calling for a new diplomatic push to settle the conflict. Last week, UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said Secretary General Antonio Guterres was “particularly concerned about attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran and across the region” and called them “unacceptable.”
Pakistan, which served as a mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran prior to the escalation, also urged “all sides to exercise restraint and refrain from actions that could further destabilize the region.” The nation’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said during a meeting with Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni on Tuesday that Islamabad was still strongly committed to regional peace and security.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have meanwhile declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in a major regional escalation. The announcement was made after forces loyal to the Saudi-backed government bombed Sana’a International Airport in an attempt to prevent an Iranian plane carrying a Houthi delegation returning from Tehran from landing.
The development sparked concerns about the security of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – another key waterway, linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
America’s policy of ever-expanding military attacks on Iran has led to a stalemate, the Washington Post reported on Monday, citing the latest intelligence assessment. The report written primarily by the CIA stated that Iran would survive a US naval blockade for months and is unlikely to change its negotiating position because of continued US strikes, the paper reported.
Washington and Tehran risk remaining “in an indefinite limbo between peace and war,” the paper warned. It also reported separately that the US was “planning for a wider war” despite lacking the resources for a prolonged campaign.
On Friday, Axios reported that Washington had notified Israel that it was sending dozens of additional refueling planes ahead of a possible expansion of operations against Iran. Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security services, told the Wall Street Journal that the escalation was “rapidly intensifying and getting out of control” as both sides risk plunging into a “total war.”
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