Ronald Meinardus: Saxony-Anhalt election tests Germany’s resistance to the far right

World electionsfar-rightgermanyTop News Ronald Meinardus: Saxony-Anhalt election tests Germany’s resistance to the far right Afd Candidate Ulrich Siegmund Campaigns For Saxony Anhalt State Elections Relevant News Ronald Meinardus: Saxony-Anhalt election tests Germany’s resistance to the far right 6 September 2026 Sophia Christodoulou Makri becomes first woman and youngest leader to head EDEK 5 September 2026 Two pilots dead after Hellenic Air Force F-4 crashes during air show 5 September 2026 Xenia Tourki 6 September 2026 FacebookXWhatsAppEmailPrintViber The ballot on September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt is no ordinary regional election. It has taken on the character of a test for the entire post-war political system of the European Union’s largest economy, since, if the polls are confirmed, a far-right party could for the first time win power and take charge of a German state. Barely thirteen years after its founding, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is causing serious upheaval and proving that the rise of the far right worldwide is not an opportunistic phenomenon but a trend with real momentum. Issues such as immigration, public disillusionment and the economic crisis have all played a significant part in the AfD’s rise, says Dr Ronald Meinardus, senior researcher and coordinator of research programmes on Greek-German relations at ELIAMEP (Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy), in an interview with Phileleftheros. “Four out of five citizens believe that Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government are not responding adequately, and this loss of trust is shaking the traditional political system. The AfD is the big winner, promising a return to the good old days,” he explains. An AfD success in Saxony-Anhalt, with a share above 40 per cent and, still more significantly, the formation of the next government, would turn the state into a “laboratory” in which the party’s great ambition would be tested under real conditions: to take first place and gain the decisive say in shaping the political landscape after the next federal election, formally due to be held within 2029. Furthermore, Meinardus explains, the AfD’s strengthening in Germany is testing the resilience of liberal democracy and reshaping the political balance across the continent. “For nationalist and extremist forces of the right in other countries, such a development would amount to a strategic and psychological success, and could give them political momentum in their own elections,” he says. Why are the Saxony-Anhalt elections considered one of the most critical political contests in Germany’s history? The significance of this election goes far beyond the boundaries of a state with only around 1.7 million voters. For the first time, Alternative for Germany (AfD) could win an election and then take charge of the government of one of Germany’s sixteen federal states. In the latest polls, the party is clearly in first place with over 40 per cent, more than double the support of the CDU, the Christian Democratic Union, which is polling just above 20 per cent. It is particularly worth noting that the CDU has governed this state for more than twenty years. The question dominating German political circles and public opinion these days is no longer whether the AfD will win the election, but how large its margin over the other parties will be. And, above all, whether the final result will secure it an absolute majority. German politics is, at its core, coalition politics. The AfD has made clear that it seeks an absolute majority and has no interest in partnerships. All the other parties reject any cooperation with the right-wing populist party. Whether the votes of parties opposed to the AfD will ultimately be enough to prevent the right-wing populist camp from forming a government is the critical question that will dominate the night of September 6. It should be noted that the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the authority whose mission, as its name suggests, is to protect the free democratic order, classifies the AfD as a confirmed far-right organisation. A victory for this party would not amount to a routine change of power. Many in Germany warn of a danger to the liberal democratic order, especially since the AfD’s declared goal is, as a next step, to win the election across the whole country. How did the AfD go from a marginal party to contending for first place at federal level? As you rightly note, the AfD is also clearly leading the polls at federal level, with support approaching 30 per cent. The party was founded in 2013 as a protest party against Berlin’s policy on the euro. Shortly afterwards, Angela Merkel’s refugee policy gave it an issue with which it could mobilise voters far beyond its original base, and it continues to do so today. To this day, opposition to a liberal migration policy remains its central theme. It would, however, be a mistake to explain its continued rise solely through opposition to immigration. Germany has for years been in a deep economic crisis, with weak growth and a radical transformation of its industrial base. There is now talk of a gradual deindustrialisation. Fear of job losses, the high cost of living and concern over the social security system all reinforce the sense that the once-successful German model no longer works. The mood in Germany today resembles a collective depression. Four out of five citizens believe that Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government are not responding adequately, and this loss of trust is shaking the traditional political system. The big winner is the AfD, which promises a return to the “good old days”. The Trump phenomenon appears to be repeating itself in Germany, starting in Saxony-Anhalt. Is this primarily an ideological vote or a protest vote against the traditional parties? Where does the AfD draw its support from, and who makes up its electorate today? The AfD was indeed born as a protest party. It has retained that character to this day, although that label alone is not enough to explain the phenomenon. Many people now support the party because they identify with specific positions it holds, mainly on immigration, internal security and questions of national identity. It would be wrong to label all of the party’s supporters neo-Nazis or fascists. Its electoral base is far more heterogeneous. I would describe the large majority as staunch conservatives, in clear contrast to the “centre-right”, to borrow a term from Greek political reality. Its far-right and anti-democratic supporters are estimated to make up around a fifth of the total. Voting-behaviour analysis shows the party is particularly popular among middle-aged men. Many AfD voters are workers. The traditional party of the German working class, the Social Democratic SPD, has lost a large share of its support to the right. This is especially evident in the former East Germany, where support for the AfD is double that in the former West Germany. Why does the AfD poll far higher in the former East than in the former West? The reasons for this asymmetry are mainly historical and relate to the conditions under which German reunification took place in 1990. To this day, many East Germans have a difficult relationship with that process, which they associate with job losses, mass migration to the West and, in part, a radical socio-economic transformation. There is often talk of a lasting sense of unequal treatment, and of a lack of recognition for what these people achieved in the course of their lives. At the core of populism there is often loss, and above all the feeling of loss, which is particularly acute in eastern Germany. This socio-psychological phenomenon favours the AfD and its rhetoric, marked by reactionary slogans. There is also a further historical factor. Democratic parties in the eastern regions do not have the same strong ties to society that they have in the west. As a result, the AfD can penetrate that political vacuum far more easily. Will the election result in this state have consequences for the wider German political landscape? Broadly speaking, elections in the federal states are regional elections, which primarily decide who will form the government in that particular state. However, the vote of Saxony-Anhalt’s citizens will also carry significant political weight for Germany’s overall political situation. The election result could trigger serious upheaval in Berlin. In the event of a heavy defeat for the CDU and SPD, which, based on current polling, is entirely plausible, the position of federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition partner, SPD leader Lars Klingbeil, would become even more difficult. Both party leaders are under intense pressure even within their own ranks. There are even observers who believe the chancellor will not survive politically until the end of the year. I am cautious about that assessment. At this point it is important to clarify that an AfD government in Magdeburg, the capital of Saxony-Anhalt, would not have any direct impact, for example, on German foreign policy. State governments are responsible mainly for policy in the fields of culture and education, as well as internal security. In these areas, the AfD will in any case try very quickly to leave its political mark and implement a programme that, in certain respects, is infused with racist ideas. For Germany as a whole, such a development would above all mean a serious blow to the country’s international image. At the same time, however, we should not forget that German right-wing populists also have powerful friends abroad. I am thinking, for example, of Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who maintain close ties with the far-right scene in Germany. And for Vladimir Putin’s Russia, an AfD-led government in Germany would represent a major success. Historical warnings are not enough A number of German politicians warn of, and compare today’s situation with, the Weimar Republic. Do you believe such warnings can stop the AfD’s rise? And, crucially, do they mean anything in particular for younger generations? Historical references play an important and justified role in the debate over the AfD’s rise. However, today’s Berlin is not Weimar, and the AfD is not a Nazi party in the way the NSDAP was. Historical references certainly play a significant and justified role in the discussion around the AfD’s successes in Germany. The Germans drew lessons from their catastrophe and created a constitution that makes it almost impossible to abolish the democratic system through political means. Without reference to Hitler’s dictatorship, one cannot understand German politics, and that applies to both domestic and foreign policy. Nevertheless, I believe the AfD’s rise cannot be halted through historical warnings. As for younger people, I do not find that events from a hundred years ago decisively shape today’s voting behaviour there either. The AfD manages to reach the younger generation mainly through highly effective social media campaigns. Historical references play a minimal role there, if any at all. Significant shifts in the German political landscape Why does the CDU appear to have lost such a significant share of the support it had in 2021? In the 2021 election, the CDU had indeed won 37 per cent of the vote, a figure that now seems almost unthinkable. In recent years, and this is where I locate the main reason, the mood has changed. That applies both to Saxony-Anhalt and to Germany as a whole. Only a third of Saxony-Anhalt’s residents rate the CDU’s record positively, and the trend is also negative at national level, which brings me back to the role of federal politics. The majority of Germans are dissatisfied with Friedrich Merz. They feel he promised a great deal but delivered very little of it. This is an impatience from which the AfD above all benefits. In Saxony-Anhalt there is a strong desire for political change after more than twenty years of CDU government. While a change of power is a normal feature of democracy, it is worrying that it favours a party the relevant authorities classify as a confirmed far-right organisation. What accounts for the sharp decline, both in the polls and at the ballot box, of the once-mighty Social Democratic Party? The collapse of the SPD, Germany’s oldest and most historic party, is not a passing phenomenon but an expression of the long-term erosion of its traditional voter base. We can speak of a structural, even existential, crisis. In the last federal election, the party fell to 16 per cent, its worst result in history. In Saxony-Anhalt, it is now fighting for its political survival. This decline is due primarily to sociological factors. The traditional social groups on which the SPD relied, namely industrial workers and trade union members, have shrunk. In the former East Germany, many workers have turned to the AfD, which presents itself as the new party of the workers. Added to this is competition from other parties on the centre-left, such as the Greens and Die Linke. The party of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) also competes with the SPD in the broader left-wing space. A further decisive factor is that, because of its participation in the governing coalition in Berlin, the SPD is backing reforms, particularly in social policy, that large sections of society consider “unjust” and which are, as a result, damaging the party’s image. If the AfD wins, what message would that send to the rest of Europe and to kindred far-right political forces? A clear AfD victory today would send a powerful political message. For a long time, Germany was seen as a country where far-right parties could grow significantly stronger, but where their participation in government remained, until now, a “red line”. That line may now be crossed. For nationalist and extremist forces of the right in other countries, such a development would amount to a strategic and psychological success, and could give them political momentum in their own elections. At the same time, I would stress that the far right in Europe is anything but unified. The message, however, cannot be ignored, and it must not under any circumstances be glossed over: the shift to the right is continuing, and it has now reached Europe’s largest economy. 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