Russian Wheat Exports Brace for Decade Low in August Amid Black Sea Attacks

Aug. 11, 2026 A combine in Russia's Rostov Region harvests wheat. REUTERS / Sergei Pivovarov Russian grain exports risk dropping to a decade low in August due to shipping bottlenecks in southern ports caused by escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, industry analysts warned Tuesday. Agricultural consultancy SovEcon projects Russia will export between 3 million and 3.4 million metric tons of wheat this month — well below the five-year August average of 5 million tons and potentially marking the lowest August total since the 2016–17 agricultural season. Independent consultancy ProZerno, meanwhile, forecasts that overall grain exports will fall to nearly 2.5 million metric tons amid severe congestion across the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The five-year August average for grain exports is 5.7 million tons. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine, also a major agricultural exporter, have been attacking each other’s agricultural export facilities and commercial vessels in the Black Sea area in recent weeks, driving wheat prices higher on global markets. The export logjam has left Russia’s domestic market oversupplied, driving local prices down by as much as 450 rubles ($5.46) per ton over the past week as farmers struggle to ship harvests abroad. Despite foreign buyers backing away due to soaring shipping costs, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced it would raise the wheat export tax for the period between Aug. 12 and Aug. 18. The ministry noted that nationwide grain production has surpassed 72 million metric tons so far, including more than 60 million tons of wheat. Meanwhile, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies lowered its forecast for Russia’s overall 2026 grain harvest from 140 million to 138.5 million metric tons, while reducing its estimate for total export capacity in the 2026–27 season from 61.5 million to 60 million tons. Russia’s main grain exporters union warned earlier this month that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and ports could shut down grain exports via the Black Sea in the near future, pushing up prices and causing hunger in Africa and the Middle East. Reuters contributed reporting. Read more about: Agriculture , Black Sea Sign up for our free weekly newsletter Our weekly newsletter contains a hand-picked selection of news, features, analysis and more from The Moscow Times. You will receive it in your mailbox every Friday. Never miss the latest news from Russia. Preview Subscribers agree to the Privacy Policy We sent a confirmation to your email. Please confirm your subscription. A Message from The Moscow Times: Dear readers, We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent." These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia. We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help. Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact. By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us. Once Monthly Annual Continue Not ready to support today? Remind me later. × Remind me next month Remind me Thank you! Your reminder is set. We will send you one reminder email a month from now. For details on the personal data we collect and how it is used, please see our Privacy Policy. Read more Russia Steps Up Ship Protection in Black Sea as Attacks Threaten Grain Exports The Transportation Ministry and the military have set up a joint task force to reroute freight and protect commercial ships. 1 Min read Memorial to Russian Sailors Lists 19 Casualties in Moskva Sinking – Reports Russia’s Defense Ministry has officially confirmed one death and 27 missing sailors in the April 13, 2022, sinking of the Moskva. 1 Min read Russia Has Sent First Free Grain Shipments to Africa President Vladimir Putin pledged to send 200,000 tons of free grain to six African countries after Moscow withdrew from the Ukrainian grain deal. 1 Min read Record Harvest Won't Help Struggling Russian Wheat Producers Russia may harvest between 114 and 116 million tons of wheat this year, a record for post-Soviet Russia, according to the head of the Russian Grain Union...