Signs point to a Cyprus problem summer

Nine years after the collapse of Crans-Montana negotiations there are indications that concrete talks can finally resumeAfter almost a decade of dormancy, the Cyprus problem may be beginning to stir. Tuesday will mark the ninth anniversary of the collapse of negotiations in the Swiss ski resort of Crans-Montana, with that particular collapse ushering in an era of nothing much happening by way of talks between the island’s two sides, and confidence-building measures amounting to little more than window dressing. For most of those nine years, the idea of negotiations in earnest appeared little more than a pipe dream, especially after the Turkish Cypriots elected Ersin Tatar – who refused to sit down for serious talks with the Greek Cypriots unless they were ready to discuss a two-state solution – as their leader. Tatar has since been and gone, and the shellacking dealt unto him by Tufan Erhurman at last October’s election appears to have given the Cyprus problem and its other players a shot in the arm. Erhurman arrived largely prepared, save for difficulties in his opening weeks in office in arranging a first meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delaying the process somewhat. He put forth a four-point collection of ideas which he said must be met for negotiations to resume, namely that the Greek Cypriot side accept political equality, that negotiations be time-limited, that all past agreements be preserved, and that the United Nations guarantee that embargoes placed on the Turkish Cypriots be lifted should the Greek Cypriot side leave the negotiating table again. From that point onwards, the process has been one of steadily building towards creating the conditions under which talks can resume, starting with a joint declaration issued by Erhurman, President Nikos Christodoulides, and UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin in December, in which they agreed that “the real aim is the solution of the Cyprus problem with political equality”. Since then, both leaders have held meetings with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and both Guterres and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis have met Erdogan, while other meetings involving either side or both sides of the island and a guarantor power or the UN have been going on in various combinations. All the while, talk has been rife of a “new initiative” being undertaken by Guterres with the aim of bringing about a resumption of talks geared towards a solution, with the phrase first being employed by government spokesman Konstantinos Letymbiotis and Erhurman in April, and being repeated regularly ever since. That does not mean that the process has continued without let or hindrance, especially given that despite efforts continuing to bring about a resumption of talks, parallel efforts to produce tangible confidence-building measures have borne few fruit. No new crossing points to connect the island’s two sides have been opened since 2018, for example. Additionally, there is a distinct lack of the doe-eyed optimism which characterised the talks of a decade ago, until they went wrong. It would be difficult to imagine Christodoulides and Erhurman laughing to each other while performing a bilingual Christmas message, as their predecessors Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci had done in 2015. In its stead there appears to be a more sturdy realism, with Christodoulides only having gone as far this week to say that “we are at a very critical juncture”, while Erhurman in particular has consistently and repeatedly stressed that “this time it must be different” to previous efforts, regularly referring to the failures at Crans-Montana and the 2004 Annan plan referendum. The mood notwithstanding, however, there is definitely movement, and following the rounds of meetings in various combinations, a point appears to have been reached at which all sides are largely on the same page regarding the way forward. Holguin is currently on a tour of the players, having visited Cyprus for two meetings each with Christodoulides and Erhurman last month, before travelling to Athens and Ankara for meetings with Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and then to New York for a meeting with Guterres. President Nikos Christodoulou with UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin Next on her itinerary is a meeting with European Council president Antonio Costa in Brussels, after which she is expected to return to Cyprus for another round of meetings with Christodoulides and Erhurman, with a view to organising an enlarged meeting, involving the island’s two sides, its three guarantor powers, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom and the UN. On this front, the two leaders appear to be largely on the same page, with Erhurman having called for “results” to be achieved at that meeting, and Christodoulides having said that its outcome must entail “the resumption of talks”. Holguin herself went further, calling on Cypriots to “seize this historic opportunity to negotiate a lasting solution” and saying that Guterres is “evaluating which could be the next phases that will convince both parties to take concrete steps towards a final solution”. Those comments came on Wednesday morning, just hours after Fidan and three members of the EU’s college of commissioners – the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, and Internal Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner – issued a joint statement offering their backing for Guterres’ “new initiative”. Noteworthy, too, is the fact that Holguin’s meeting with Costa was delayed to take place after this week’s Nato leaders’ summit, which is in Ankara. The summit will be hosted by Erdogan and attended by Costa, Mitsotakis, and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, as well as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and comes as talks regarding security guarantees in a post-solution Cyprus appear to be coalescing around the idea of a Nato-based guarantee structure. Security guarantees may come in the form of the new Cypriot republic’s accession to Nato, alongside the presence of Nato troops from Turkey, Greece, France, the UK and the United States on the island. While Cyprus is not expected to top the agenda in Ankara this week, it is far from out of the question that the island, its problem and its future security guarantees may feature on the sidelines. Granted, the Cyprus problem is more than a simple question of security guarantees, and any talks geared towards solving it will also take in the matters of governance and property, among other issues, but by all accounts, conversations at the very least are being had on these questions by those at the sharp end of Cypriot and global politics. Cyprus, its problem and a potential solution, therefore, appears to be making its way back onto the world’s agenda. With the enlarged meeting likely in August, the signs are pointing to a Cyprus problem summer.