Soaring fuel prices fuel protests and far-right gains across Europe

Soaring energy prices linked to the Iran war are driving protests across Europe and reshaping the political landscape, with far-right parties gaining support ahead of key elections.The tractors rolling into the town of Gela on the southern tip of Europe are flying the Sicilian flag, emblazoned with Medusa, three bent legs and ears of wheat, a reminder of the island’s role as a breadbasket since Roman times. But the farmers are not bringing in a harvest. They are protesting. As soaring fuel prices squeeze household budgets and businesses across Europe, cost-of-living pressures are driving unrest and giving fresh momentum to far-right parties ahead of elections next year in countries including France, Italy and Poland. Parties once considered fringe had already been gaining ground, with voters from motorists in rural France to young men in Germany’s former Communist east looking for alternatives. The US-Iran war, which erupted in February and sent energy prices sharply higher, has compounded the challenge for governments already struggling to contain inflation, support growth and rein in spending. The discontent has spilled onto the streets. In France, demonstrations that began over deteriorating school facilities in Paris’ northern suburbs have morphed into some of the country’s worst unrest in decades, with shops looted, buildings torched and a 19th-century town hall in Limoges set on fire. “Why am I here? Well, quite simply, I find the current cost of living truly terrifying,” said Quentin Leviloux, a 21-year-old protester in Nantes. “Just think of people who earn barely the minimum wage, when you look at the cost of food, fuel, and everything else. It’s terrifying how incredibly expensive things have become.” The European Commission estimates the Iran conflict has cost Europe roughly €100 billion ($112 billion) through disrupted trade and energy markets. Gas prices have jumped about 140% and diesel prices have doubled. In a weekend address, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged the “legitimate demands” of protesters angered by rising living and fuel costs, while condemning those responsible for violence and looting. “We must never confuse them with those who destroyed, vandalised and looted,” he said. Cost-of-living protests spread across Europe Violence has also erupted elsewhere. In the wealthy northern Italian city of Milan, police clashed on Sunday with protesters hurling stones and looting stores during demonstrations over poor public services and rising living costs. In Gela, on Sicily’s southern coast, farmers say fuel costs have made operating machinery prohibitively expensive. “We cultivate the land, we harvest debts,” said one banner. “We are completely at a standstill,” said Arcangelo Gambino, a farmers’ representative in Caltanissetta province. “The (fuel) cost has more than doubled.” Roadblocks by truckers, farmers and steelworkers have disrupted transport across parts of southern Italy, contributing to local fuel shortages and concerns over supermarket supplies. Tens of thousands marched through Lisbon on Saturday over low wages, housing costs and the rising cost of living, increasing pressure on Portugal’s centre-right government. In Spain, the eviction of an 87-year-old woman from her home sparked nationwide demonstrations over housing shortages and soaring rents, helping trigger a snap election next month. Belgium has also seen demonstrations, while large rallies in Albania have been driven by anger over perceived government corruption, a lack of jobs and poor education standards. The protests reflect broader economic anxieties that are increasingly shaping politics across the continent. Concerns about purchasing power have become “a major driver of populist politics” across Europe, said Gilles Ivaldi, a political scientist at Sciences Po. Politicians on both the hard right and hard left have increasingly argued that restoring energy ties with Russia would help lower costs, challenging Europe’s mainstream consensus on support for Ukraine. Le Pen makes fuel prices an election issue The latest energy shock comes after years of economic strain following the pandemic and the fallout from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In France, rising energy costs have provided an explosive backdrop to next April’s presidential election. Macron’s government is struggling with a ballooning budget deficit and pressure from bond markets. Frontrunner Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally and hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon have both made fuel prices central planks in their campaigns. “Rising fuel prices are clearly an issue that boosts Marine Le Pen,” said Ivaldi. “I think this is an issue she has owned for quite some time.” Since the Iran war began, Le Pen’s ratings have improved while Macron’s have slipped, according to polling by Elabe. Le Pen’s proposal to sharply cut value-added tax on fuel has attracted broad public support. Analysts say the issue resonates strongly with her core voters in rural and semi-rural areas where car travel is often essential. Far-right parties call for renewed Russian energy ties In neighbouring Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading national opinion polls after strong gains in local elections. The cost of living topped Germans’ concerns for a fifth straight year in a survey published this month. German inflation spiked to nearly a three-year high in September, with energy price inflation rising to 14.9%, handing ammunition to the AfD to attack Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The AfD is pushing to restore energy ties with Russia, arguing that Berlin’s support for Ukraine is needlessly self-sabotaging at a time when Europe’s largest economy and many of its energy-hungry companies are struggling. Past experience indicates a link between high energy prices and voter turnout for the AfD, said Jan Steckel, professor for the political economy of climate change at the Technical University of Munich. “Populist parties often frame energy costs as avoidable and attribute them to government policy choices … rather than to the underlying geopolitical shocks that drive them,” he said. “These geopolitical shocks are … much more difficult to explain. And I think this is why incumbent parties often struggle.” The argument is gaining traction elsewhere. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces growing competition from National Future, a new far-right party led by former army general Roberto Vannacci that advocates restoring gas links with Russia. In Poland, one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, concern over energy bills is helping boost support for the far-right Confederation of the Polish Crown. Its leader, Grzegorz Braun, has called for a return to buying Russian oil and gas, making the case alongside AfD politicians in Lubmin, where the damaged Nord Stream pipelines land in Germany. “I love the smell of Russian gas in the morning,” he said.