Statistics can be misleading

Without reliable data, sound economic policy making is not possibleStatistics are often viewed with scepticism. The familiar saying that “the numbers are thriving, but citizens are not” does not simply reflect a general sense of distrust. It, rather, highlights the real gap between an evaluation based on individual macroeconomic indicators and people’s everyday lives. A comprehensive approach should, therefore, include and prioritise indicators with a direct social reference, such as the purchasing power of wages and at-risk-of-poverty rates. The current overemphasis on figures aimed primarily at international markets, investors and trained economists often overlooks the needs of the average citizen. The problem, therefore, lies not in the statistics themselves, but in the way the original data and the resulting statistics are selected, interpreted and used. Without reliable data, sound economic policy making is not possible. When political decisions are based on fragmented experiences or subjective impressions, the risk of misguided choices, unequal distribution of costs and delays increases significantly. The competent EU services have acknowledged the importance of reliable statistical data and place particular emphasis on quality aspects. Through Eurostat’s common European statistical framework, harmonised methodologies are applied to ensure that data from Member States is both objective and comparable. This is essential, as assessments by EU institutions cover important areas, such as fiscal policy, reforms, social protection and the energy transition. In all instances, the ultimate objective is for policies to be assessed based on specialised indicators rather than general impressions. Greece’s experience in the late 2000s provides a clear warning. Problematic fiscal statistics presented an overly favourable picture of reality and led to delays in the adoption of corrective measures and, ultimately, to painful interventions, with disproportionate consequences for large sections of society. At the national level, the proper use of statistics ensures an equally important function of providing citizens with accurate and reliable information concerning the beneficiaries of policy interventions, the qualifying criteria and the actual benefits vis-a-vis the fiscal cost. When these parameters are quantified, public debate becomes more meaningful. The statistical system should provide a coherent basis, enabling the linkage of data collection, analysis, policymaking and accountability. Cyprus has benefited from aligning its statistical system with the European framework, which places pivotal importance on its professional independence. However, there is scope to further reinforce the institutional and operational safeguards underpinning the Statistical Service of Cyprus. While CySTAT’s administrative placement under the Ministry of Finance is common practice across the EU and does not, per se, pose a problem, further strengthening its operational autonomy and ensuring adequate staffing are fundamental prerequisites for the credibility of its work. In today’s data-driven environment, sound statistical information serves as the foundational infrastructure for the responsible utilisation of the growing analytical capacity of artificial intelligence. As AI increasingly shapes predictive analytics and policy modelling, the stakes for data integrity become higher than ever. However, to truly unlock this advanced analytical capacity, one fundamental prerequisite remains: data must be interpreted objectively rather than subjectively guided by short-term political considerations. Under this condition, numbers do not conceal the reality, they reveal it. They enable us to understand the real picture, measure policy interventions by the authorities and ensure accountability. Ultimately, we cannot properly manage what we cannot measure. Andreas Charalambous is an economist and Chairman of the Cyprus Fiscal Council. Omiros Pissarides is an economist and member of the Cyprus Economy and Competitiveness Council. The views they express are personal