The homework Guterres left Cyprus: Three readings of what comes next

Politics Antonio GuterresCyprus problemTop NewsTufan ErhurmanturkeyUnited Nations The homework Guterres left Cyprus: Three readings of what comes next Dipno 1024x683 Relevant News The homework Guterres left Cyprus: Three readings of what comes next 9 August 2026 German minister warns of daily ‘hybrid warfare’ after suspected drone attack 9 August 2026 Vehicle extensively damaged in early-morning fire in Larnaca 9 August 2026 Ernestos Mousas 9 August 2026 FacebookXWhatsAppEmailPrintViber When the United Nations announced the Secretary-General’s visit to Cyprus, everyone involved waited anxiously to see what António Guterres would bring with him. By the time he left the island, however, his announcements from the old Nicosia airport were already being interpreted in different ways. That divergence is also evident in the competing readings of the “homework” Guterres left the two sides in Nicosia. Relief over Guterres’s adherence to UN parameters There is clear relief in the government-controlled areas because the Secretary-General remained within the framework of UN Security Council resolutions and at no point raised the much-discussed “new ideas” that had appeared in press reports about an “out-of-the-box” settlement. Reports had suggested that María Ángela Holguín was considering a form of settlement that would produce a state with a system of government which Greek Cypriots could call a federation and Turkish Cypriots a confederation. Those ideas were met with suspicion and considerable concern, despite the Colombian diplomat publicly denying the reports. How the two sides interpret Guterres The Greek Cypriot side, judging from the President’s public statements, now interprets Guterres’s moves as being fully aligned with its own positions. From the outset, President Nikos Christodoulides focused on the Secretary-General’s reference to adequate preparation on substance, taking into account the convergences already achieved, expressing satisfaction and presenting that as the route forward. The United Nations subsequently appointed an expert to record the convergences, a move seen as confirming that this is indeed a decisive step if the process is to continue with a prospect of success. The Turkish Cypriot side, however, is seeking to interpret Guterres’s announcements differently, presenting them as confirmation of its own position that any new process must be different this time and must establish in advance that failure will not mean a return to the present status quo. The Turkish Cypriot argument rests on the Secretary-General’s reference to convening a new 5+1 meeting after “adequate preparation regarding confidence-building, methodology and substance”. On that basis, the Turkish Cypriot leadership argues that agreement on confidence-building measures has been set by the Secretary-General as a prerequisite for convening another enlarged conference. Are confidence-building measures a prerequisite? That is a question which, with absolute certainty, can only be answered by the Secretary-General and his closest professional advisers. The fact, however, that Guterres left Cyprus with that question still hanging in the air, allowing the two sides to offer different interpretations, can hardly be regarded as accidental. It is a classic example of constructive ambiguity, a diplomatic technique used to allow substantive steps forward without an effort becoming bogged down in individual details and issues that may ultimately prove irrelevant if the larger objective is achieved. The Secretary-General would clearly like to see the two leaders agree on certain confidence-building measures as a sign of goodwill and readiness for mutual compromise. Having watched the lack of progress over recent months, however, he may have decided to bypass that particular hurdle in a final attempt to hand the Cyprus file to his successor at a point resembling the one at which he inherited it from his predecessor, Ban Ki-moon. That assessment is also reflected in comments by former negotiator and long-standing member of the negotiating team Toumazos Tselepis, who believes the Secretary-General’s position on the matter is clear. Deputy Government Spokesman Yiannis Antoniou, meanwhile, makes clear that confidence-building measures are not a prerequisite for convening the new 5+1 conference. Former Turkish Cypriot negotiator Özdil Nami is closer to the official position of his community’s leadership, stressing that the Secretary-General expects progress, among other things, on confidence-building measures before convening another enlarged conference. He therefore appears to regard them as a prerequisite. Meeting set for late August Christodoulides and Erhürman are now due to meet on 26 August. According to the Presidency, the meeting forms part of what was agreed during the Secretary-General’s visit regarding the necessary preparatory work for convening a new enlarged conference. The stated aim is the resumption of substantive negotiations from where they left off, seeking a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem based on the agreed framework and the convergences already achieved. The content of the late-August meeting has not yet been clarified. However, given the government’s assessment that updating the convergences will not be a lengthy process, it is possible that they will be ready by then and could be placed on the table for discussion. Government: Talks restart after convergences are reconfirmed Deputy Government Spokesman Yiannis Antoniou told Phileleftheros that following the Secretary-General’s significant visit to Cyprus, the Greek Cypriot side is ready for the next step: an informal enlarged conference following appropriate preparation. He said the Greek Cypriot side takes from Guterres’s announcements confirmation of his personal interest in making progress towards restarting negotiations for a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem. The government also notes with satisfaction his explicit reference to UN parameters and the convergences already achieved, which it believes clearly establishes the foundation on which the new effort will be built. Also significant, Antoniou said, is the fact that Guterres secured the consent of all parties, including the guarantor powers, for a new enlarged conference. On that basis, the United Nations will begin recording – or, more precisely, updating – the convergences covering all aspects of the Cyprus problem, including matters discussed up to the final day of the previous effort at Crans-Montana in 2017. The objective is to draw up a framework that will form the basis for restarting talks on a comprehensive solution. Antoniou explained that the document recording convergences on internal aspects will be given to the two sides in Cyprus, while the document concerning external aspects will also be given to the guarantor powers. “The parties will submit comments on the documents and, once the convergences are reconfirmed, the road will essentially open for the enlarged conference, where the resumption of talks will be announced,” he said. The government assesses that the process will not take long because the update will be based on positions already recorded in United Nations documents and in records produced during negotiations over previous years. Antoniou also said that, alongside the recording of convergences and clarification of the methodology to be followed, the United Nations will seek progress in discussions on confidence-building measures, but these are not being set as a prerequisite for convening the informal conference. The aim of the Greek Cypriot side is not to reopen the convergences that have already been achieved, Antoniou stressed, while noting that he could not speak for the intentions of the Turkish Cypriot side. What is clear, he said, is that no one can expect the process to proceed based on an approach that reconfirms what the Turkish Cypriot side expects as concessions while excluding what the Greek Cypriot side expects, particularly from Turkey. Özdil Nami: The missing piece in the Cyprus talks The way a new negotiating process is conducted could prove just as important as the substance of the Cyprus talks themselves, former Turkish Cypriot negotiator Özdil Nami argues, placing methodology at the centre of any renewed negotiations. Speaking to Phileleftheros, Nami said the Cyprus debate has for years focused on the destination. “Perhaps it is time to pay equal attention to the road that leads there,” he said, adding that “the future of the Cyprus talks may depend less on what the two sides negotiate than on how they negotiate”. According to Nami, this is the most important message left behind by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Before convening another 5+1 meeting, he said, the Secretary-General expects the parties to demonstrate tangible progress in three areas. What remains less clear, Nami said, is whether those prerequisites can realistically be met under current conditions. He said the Secretary-General expects progress on the methodology for future negotiations on substantive issues, confidence-building measures and substance, taking into account the convergences already achieved. The former Turkish Cypriot negotiator argues that these three elements are closely interconnected. “Unless a methodology capable of enabling the two sides to travel the ‘final mile’, as the Secretary-General put it, is first agreed, there are very limited realistic prospects for meaningful progress on substance,” he said. Referring to the experience of Crans-Montana, Nami said methodology is not merely a theoretical issue. “This is not simply a theoretical argument. It is the most important lesson of Crans-Montana. The process there enjoyed the full support of the three guarantor powers, the European Union and the United Nations. The negotiations belonged to the Cypriots and were Cypriot-led, while significant convergences had already been achieved. “Despite those favourable conditions, however, the conference failed. That experience demonstrated that simply recreating the conditions that existed at Crans-Montana is no longer enough,” he said. Turning to Turkey’s two-state policy, Nami said: “Many argue that if Turkey abandoned its current policy in favour of two states, negotiations could simply resume from where they left off”. “There is of course no doubt that the positions adopted by the parties matter. Experience, however, shows that they do not tell the whole story. “Even during periods when the stated objectives of the sides appeared much closer than they are today, agreement remained elusive. “This suggests that political positions alone do not fully explain repeated failures. Equal attention must also be paid to the design of the negotiating process,” he added. In that context, Nami referred to the four-point proposal put forward by Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman, arguing that it seeks to place precisely the issue of process design on the table. “Regardless of whether one agrees with every aspect of the proposal, it introduces an element that has often been missing from the discussion: reflection on the design of the negotiating process itself,” he said. According to Nami, “if we are genuinely committed to ending the status quo, we must devote the same attention to designing the right negotiating process as we devote to discussing the substance of the solution”. He added that “reducing the discussion on methodology to whether past convergences should be respected overlooks the broader issue”, before setting out three questions he believes must be answered. “First, what should the timetable for negotiations be? “Second, what mechanism, if any, should exist to overcome deadlocks if the sides are unable to bridge their differences? “And third, what substantive choices should ultimately be put before the people, rather than simply asking them to approve or reject a comprehensive settlement with a one-word ‘Yes’ or ‘No’?” Nami concluded that “the Secretary-General has described the destination” and that “it is now up to the parties to agree on the road that leads there”. “If they can demonstrate a shared determination to overcome the status quo, there is every reason to expect continued support from the guarantor powers, the European Union and the United Nations. “If the next round of negotiations is conducted through the same process that has repeatedly failed, we should not be surprised if it produces the same result. “The real challenge is not only to negotiate again, but to negotiate differently,” he said. Toumazos Tselepis: Guterres bypassed confidence-building measures and moved to substance Former Greek Cypriot negotiator and long-standing member of the negotiating team Toumazos Tselepis told Phileleftheros that, in his assessment, António Guterres has decided to bypass confidence-building measures and move directly to substance. Tselepis said the Secretary-General clearly wants to move towards a conference, but also wants some guarantees that this time the process will lead to the desired outcome: the resumption of substantive talks and a clear path – or methodology – for how to proceed. He regards the Secretary-General’s decision to appoint an expert to record the convergences as a positive development. “This means that he is starting the effort correctly,” Tselepis said, adding that it is right for the United Nations to record them. “Because if this is left to the two sides, they will not manage it, given our experience with confidence-building measures, which are something much easier, and yet so far we have not managed to open even one checkpoint.” For Tselepis, the logical next step is for the Secretary-General to submit the convergences to the two sides for their comments. Once they have been fully recorded, he believes the sides should have the right to try to change something, but on the condition that if they fail to do so, the convergence remains in force and the process is not left hanging. According to the former negotiator, all of this should take place ahead of the new 5+1 meeting. After that, he said, a methodology should be followed – what the Greek Cypriot side calls a roadmap. “Whatever it is called, what matters is that it is clear how the process should move forward. This will also be the legacy for the Secretary-General’s successor, so that, if he wishes, he can continue along this path,” Tselepis said. On confidence-building measures and whether they are a prerequisite for a 5+1 meeting, Tselepis said it is clear in his view that Guterres has decided to bypass them. “Since we have so far failed to open even one checkpoint, he has decided that we must bypass this step and move to substance,” he said. He noted that it would, of course, be positive if the two sides could agree on some confidence-building measures in the meantime, but said the Secretary-General is not making this a prerequisite for holding the conference. Tselepis also argues that if the convergences are reconfirmed and the Secretary-General simultaneously submits a framework – which, he believes, all indications suggest will be the one presented at Crans-Montana – the process would automatically reach what Guterres himself has called the “final mile”. “If we reach a ‘strategic agreement’, meaning what he tried to achieve at Crans-Montana through the six points, then we essentially enter a path of no return. “Anyone who then tries to move away from that will, as you understand, also face a cost,” he said. That is why Tselepis believes that reconfirming the convergences, combined with accepting a framework to be submitted by the Secretary-General, could provide the conditions for a positive outcome in the negotiations that follow. 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