Visa says AI will reshape European banking as early adopters pull ahead

Artificial intelligence is set to fundamentally reshape retail banking in Europe by 2030, with early adopters expected to pull significantly ahead of competitors, according to new research from Visa. The study, authored by Visa Consulting and Analytics (VCA), was based on responses from 325 senior decision-makers across 17 European markets and points to a clear shift from experimentation to execution. According to the findings, 86 per cent of European banking leaders believe AI will reshape retail banking by 2030, while 61 per cent expect early movers to dominate their markets. At the same time, more than 90 per cent of European banks are already using some form of AI across their major business functions. However, the research points to a growing divide between banks using AI mainly to optimise today’s operating model and those embedding it into the decisions that will shape future growth and customer outcomes. Almost half of banks, 48 per cent, continue to anchor investment around operational efficiency or employee productivity, while fewer than one in three, 30 per cent, cite customer experience or fraud prevention as their primary AI driver. Where AI is applied also makes a critical difference. Organisations deploying it in high-volume, real-time environments that improve customer outcomes, including real-time decisioning, fraud detection and personalised services, are 40 per cent more likely to achieve transformational gains. By contrast, where AI is applied more peripherally, such as in product development or lending, its impact is more limited and tends to plateau sooner. The research also highlights how banks are taking distinct approaches to AI adoption and how those choices are shaping outcomes. Around half of banks are classified as Efficiency Seekers, at 48 per cent, focused mainly on cost reduction and operational efficiency. Meanwhile, Trust Builders, at 30 per cent, prioritise AI investment around customer outcomes, while Competitor Chasers, at 15 per cent, are investing in response to market pressure. A smaller group, Compliance Keepers, at 7 per cent, focus primarily on meeting regulatory requirements. Trust Builders stand out in the research. They are more common among digital-first banks and are far more likely to say AI is improving customer trust, particularly through faster fraud detection and more personalised services. They also report stronger productivity gains, with 42 per cent of employees saving two or more hours a week, compared with 28 per cent among Efficiency Seekers. This, according to Visa, emphasises how different approaches to AI adoption are already translating into uneven outcomes across the sector. For Cyprus, Michael Ioannides, Country Manager, Visa Cyprus, said AI would define the next generation of banking, but stressed that progress would depend on how deeply it is embedded across organisations, saying it “won’t be delivered in isolated pilots or side projects” and will depend on “how well banks rewire the core of their organisation to support it”. He added that “the opportunity now is to build for scale, with modern, flexible systems, connected data, and AI embedded directly into real-time decisions”, while banks that get those foundations right “will move faster, adapt more quickly, and deliver more secure, relevant and seamless experiences their customers are looking for”. Meanwhile, Claudio Di Nella, Head of Visa Consulting and Analytics, Visa Europe, said the research showed that while AI adoption across European banking was already broad, “the results are far from equal”, with most banks seeing incremental gains while “a smaller group is delivering sustained, compounding impact”. He said the difference “comes down to execution”, adding that the banks pulling ahead are “embedding AI into live decision flows, scaling it across functions, and holding themselves to clear performance metrics”. As he put it, “They are not experimenting at the edges, they are building AI into how the business runs.” Visa’s From AI Promise to AI Performance research, including recommendations for advancing AI maturity, is available here. The research was commissioned by Visa and conducted by Visa Consulting and Analytics among 325 senior decision-makers at banks across 17 European markets, based on survey responses assessing AI adoption and strategy in retail banking.