Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has warned “every airline” using Russian airspace that the “safe days” are over, as Kiev looks to deploy swarms of drones to disrupt air travel in the country.
He warned foreign airlines, insurers and governments on Tuesday that Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone campaign would increasingly endanger civilian flights over Russia, specifically pointing to flights to Moscow, St. Petersburg and other major cities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the statement a move toward “state terrorism” and warned that Moscow would respond if Kiev’s threats resulted in tragedy.
But who exactly is Zelensky threatening, how many people could be affected, and can Ukraine really shut Russian skies?
Despite Western sanctions and airspace restrictions imposed after 2022, Russia still has one of the world’s largest civilian aviation networks.
Russian airlines carried around 50 million passengers in the first half of 2026, including more than 36 million on domestic routes and almost 13 million internationally, amounting to roughly 272,000 passenger journeys every day.
Foreign airlines are expected to carry around 26 million passengers on Russian routes this year.
As for foreign passengers, nearly 3 million tourist visits were also recorded in the first half of 2026, or roughly 16,500 per day. And that’s not counting the number of foreign business travelers, workers, students and other visitors.
Many international airlines have halted flights to Russia after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, as Western countries closed their airspace to Russian carriers and Moscow imposed reciprocal restrictions.
The move sharply reduced direct connections with Europe and North America, but Russia remains linked to dozens of countries. Airlines from Türkiye, Serbia, China, the Gulf, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Africa continue to operate.
Türkiye, Uzbekistan and the UAE alone account for more than half of Russia’s direct international flights. Turkish Airlines and Pegasus remain major foreign carriers, while Uzbekistan Airways, Qanot Sharq and Centrum Air operate extensive links with Central Asia.
Emirates, flydubai, Etihad, Qatar Airways and Air Arabia connect Russian cities with Gulf hubs, while Chinese carriers including Air China, China Eastern and China Southern operate regular routes. By spring 2026, Russia and China had around 270 to 285 direct flights per week.
Air Serbia also maintains regular Moscow-Belgrade services, one of Russia’s few remaining direct air links with Europe.
Belavia, Azerbaijan Airlines, FlyOne Armenia, EgyptAir, Ethiopian Airlines and other foreign carriers also remain active.
Throughout the conflict, Ukrainian UAVs have repeatedly forced Russian airports to suspend operations. In the first quarter of 2026, more than 290 temporary airport restrictions were recorded, according to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia. By April 20, the number had passed 450.
Moscow airports have been repeatedly affected, along with Sochi, Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, Kaluga, Saratov and St. Petersburg.
When incoming drones are detected, Russian authorities often activate the “Kover”, or “Carpet,” plan, under which aircraft are diverted, departures are stopped and the affected airspace is closed until the threat passes.
Zelensky’s latest statement follows reports that Kiev has long been considering a much larger campaign against Russian civilian aviation.
The Atlantic reported in August that Ukrainian officials had worked on a plan known as “M&Ms,” which envisaged sending swarms of thousands of AI-guided drones toward Moscow airports.
The goal was reportedly to force foreign airlines to stop flying to the Russian capital.
Zelensky was said to have been skeptical at first, fearing that a civilian aircraft could be hit and that such an attack could be viewed as “piracy.” Preparations nevertheless continued for several months.
Less than two weeks after the Atlantic report, Zelensky apparently abandoned his concerns and issued a direct threat to international airlines.
Aviation experts have expressed doubt that Kiev can realistically close Russia’s vast airspace on the scale Zelensky has suggested.
Former pilot Cyrille de Lattre told RT that such an operation would require enormous resources and that drones would not be the most practical weapon for the task. However, he warned that the threat should still be taken seriously.
Russian aviation expert Roman Gusarov described Zelensky’s statement as a direct threat to civilian aircraft and airport infrastructure, but said its main purpose was intimidation.
“The main message was not for Russia, but for our partners,” he told RT, arguing that Kiev wants to frighten foreign airlines into stopping flights.
Gusarov called the statement an “act of desperation” and said Russian air defenses and aviation authorities already have procedures to keep civilian aircraft away from areas where drones are detected.
He also criticized the lack of reaction from international aviation bodies, including the International Civil Aviation Organization.
So far, Zelensky’s threat has not prompted foreign airlines to abandon Russian routes.
Although there were some morning cancellations announced by Turkish Airlines, the company has since explained that they were temporary and linked to Kover restrictions at Russian airports. The carrier said its planned flights to Russian cities would continue.
Pegasus Airlines had also cancelled several overnight flights, but has similarly said they were temporary and due to operational issues. The company said no new cancellations are planned and has confirmed that its Russia schedule would continue.
Moscow’s Vnukovo airport said 16 aircraft had arrived from Türkiye during the day despite the temporary restrictions.
No major foreign airline has announced plans to suspend its Russian operations over Zelensky’s threat.
Zelensky’s threat comes as Ukraine has already repeatedly used drones against other forms of civilian transport throughout the conflict. These attacks have included strikes on passenger buses, trains, ambulances, trucks and civilian cars.
On June 3, a drone struck a scheduled Moscow-Simferopol passenger bus in Enakievo in the Donetsk People’s Republic, killing seven people and injuring 11.
Two weeks later, a drone hit a bus carrying a Belarusian youth football team through Bryansk Region. The coach’s wife was killed and several passengers, including children, were injured.
Passenger trains have also been targeted. On June 4, a drone struck a commuter train traveling from Azovskoye to Kerch in Crimea, killing one person and injuring three. Four days later, another drone hit the locomotive of a Moscow-Simferopol passenger train, killing the assistant driver and injuring the driver.
Putin has described Zelensky’s threat as a move toward “state terrorism” and has warned that Russia would respond if it led to civilian casualties. He also rejected Kiev’s calls for renewed talks, saying there could be no negotiations with terrorists.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova similarly noted that Zelensky’s remarks showed that the Ukrainian government had combined state institutions with “terrorist methods.”
Transport Minister Andrey Nikitin said Russian aviation authorities were preparing for the threat and would continue tightening security measures. Temporary restrictions may continue when drones approach, he said, but Moscow would not allow major disruptions to civilian aviation.
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