Will realism shape the COP31 outcome?

The focus is shifting from ambitious climate targets to practical deliveryCOP31 takes place in Antalya, Turkey, between November 9-20 and is expected to focus on implementation: concrete, market-driven initiatives that can survive the current global energy crisis. The key initiative is the “35-by-35” Clean Electrification Pledge. The goal is to lift electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from today’s ~23 per cent to 35 per cent by 2035. As world leaders prepare for COP31, international climate diplomacy faces a fundamental change. Countries are arriving with crises-driven priorities increasingly shaped by economic pressures, energy security and geopolitical realities. The central question is no longer simply how quickly fossil fuels can be replaced, but how the transition can proceed without undermining economic growth, industrial competitiveness and security of supply. COP31 may mark a transition from climate ambition driven primarily by targets to climate action constrained by economic realities, energy security and geopolitical priorities. This does not mean abandoning the Paris Agreement. Rather, energy policy is entering a period of pragmatic adjustment. Decarbonisation must be affordable, technologically feasible and politically sustainable. A changing geopolitical environment The Middle East crisis has disrupted oil and gas markets, raised prices and exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz show how quickly energy security can become a matter of national economic survival. The Ukraine war, trade disputes and economic nationalism reinforce these pressures. The US has retreated from climate leadership, while China expands renewables and electric vehicles alongside substantial coal, gas and oil consumption. The US midterm elections have introduced another dimension. Democrats have won control of Congress, potentially constraining President Trump’s energy and climate policies. However, the new Congress takes office only in January, while Trump retains executive authority and veto powers, making immediate changes in federal climate policy unlikely. Developing economies resist commitments that could constrain growth. Even the EU, traditionally an advocate of ambitious targets, approaches COP31 with tempered expectations. Climate policy can no longer be separated from economic resilience and security of supply. Paris Agreement: ambition versus implementation The Paris Agreement remains the foundation of climate diplomacy, but the gap between commitments and implementation is widening. Global energy demand continues growing through industrialisation, rising living standards, electrification and data centres. Renewables are expanding rapidly, but they meet new demand rather than displace fossil fuels. Decarbonisation requires enormous investment in grids, storage, interconnections, flexible generation and industrial infrastructure. Projects face permitting delays, supply-chain constraints and competition for capital. Governments can legislate emissions targets. They cannot legislate technological breakthroughs, accelerate complex projects by decree or guarantee that consumers can absorb unlimited costs. Energy policy must adapt to reality, rather than attempting to impose a predetermined timeline upon reality. A global transition moving at different speeds The global energy transition is moving at different speeds, reflecting countries’ economic circumstances, energy needs and priorities. Wealthier economies pursue renewables, electrification and efficiency while retaining backup capacity. Developing countries prioritise affordable energy, industrialisation, employment and poverty reduction. Across India, Africa and much of Asia, governments expand renewables while continuing to invest in coal, oil and gas. This reflects development needs, not necessarily rejection of climate action. Uniform timetables risk widening divisions. Developing countries expect climate finance, while wealthier governments face fiscal pressures and competing priorities. COP31 must acknowledge that different economies cannot follow identical pathways. Europe’s experience offers lessons Europe illustrates the consequences of ambitious climate policies not fully aligned with infrastructure and economics. Renewable electricity has expanded substantially, but grids, storage, interconnections and flexible capacity have not kept pace. European industries face energy costs frequently much higher than competitors in the US and China. Chemicals, steel, fertilisers and refining are especially exposed. Meanwhile, Europe must finance extensive infrastructure investment amid sluggish growth, defence spending and fiscal constraints. The problem is not decarbonisation itself, but inadequate coordination between renewable expansion, supporting infrastructure and electricity market reform. Households facing high energy costs will not indefinitely accept additional burdens without visible benefits. Industrial closures and job losses further erode support. An energy transition that undermines industrial competitiveness and loses public support will ultimately become more difficult and take much longer to complete. Oil and natural gas remain necessary Oil and natural gas will remain important for decades. Despite electric vehicle growth, oil remains central to aviation, shipping, petrochemicals, heavy transport and numerous industrial uses. Alternatives are developing, but many remain expensive or difficult to deploy at scale. Oil and gas are also industrial feedstocks, not merely fuels. Natural gas supports industrial heating, fertiliser production and flexible electricity generation. In developing economies, it can support industrialisation and reduce emissions where it replaces coal. This does not imply indefinite fossil-fuel demand growth. Consumption will depend on technology, economics and policy. But rapid elimination is inconsistent with the complexity of global energy systems. If production investment declines faster than demand, shortages and price volatility could follow. The world cannot afford either an unmanaged withdrawal from fossil fuels or indefinite continuation of the existing system. Energy security is reshaping the transition Recent crises have exposed weaknesses in energy supply chains designed around efficiency, low inventories and just-in-time delivery. Governments are reconsidering strategic reserves, diversified suppliers, alternative routes and infrastructure redundancy. The emphasis is shifting towards just-in-case resilience. After Hormuz, optionality – the ability to switch between suppliers, fuels, transport routes and technologies – is becoming increasingly important. Renewables reduce dependence on imported fuels, but require storage, flexible capacity and modern networks. Natural gas offers flexibility, although its supply chains also face geopolitical risks. Energy security and decarbonisation must advance together. A lower-emissions system that cannot withstand disruption is not fully sustainable. What should COP31 achieve? Expectations for a major breakthrough are limited. The EU emphasises implementation, Turkey and Australia promote electrification, and disputes over fossil fuels and climate finance persist. Yet COP31 could redirect attention from headline targets towards delivery: electricity networks, storage, efficiency, low-carbon technologies and adaptation. Climate finance should support measurable emissions reductions, development and energy access. Advanced economies must reconcile decarbonisation with competitiveness and affordability; developing countries need flexibility. Success should be measured by credible implementation, not another declaration. Realism is not climate inaction Climate change remains a serious challenge. Rising temperatures, extreme weather and adaptation costs demand sustained action. But urgency cannot eliminate economic, technological and geopolitical constraints. Renewables, electrification and innovation will continue transforming energy systems. Their pace depends on affordability, security and public acceptance. Energy policy is entering a period of pragmatic adjustment. COP31 could matter by reconciling climate objectives with the realities of the global energy system. However, realism must not excuse inaction. Equally, climate ambition must not become detached from reality. A transition that countries can afford, industries can support and societies can sustain will achieve more than ambitious timelines that prove impossible to deliver.