**World is Rethinking Strength of US Dollar Amid Rising National Debt**
For decades, the US dollar has been regarded as a cornerstone of global finance, with US government bonds considered a zero-risk asset and a safe haven during economic turmoil. However, the rapidly escalating national debt of the United States is prompting a reevaluation of this long-held belief, raising concerns about its implications for asset pricing, sovereign credit ratings, and global interest rate structures.
As of now, the US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, which equates to approximately 127% of the nation's GDP. This staggering figure has more than doubled in just a decade, translating to a debt burden of roughly $120,000 for every American citizen. Alarmingly, the national liability is increasing at a rate of nearly $7 billion each day, a trend that reflects years of persistent federal spending across both Republican and Democratic administrations. This spending has been further exacerbated by emergency economic stimulus packages, tax cuts, and statutory spending commitments.
While there are justifiable reasons for increasing debt during challenging periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing concern is the burgeoning cost of servicing this debt. Interest expenses are rising at an annual rate of 14%, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that these costs will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history by 2026. This means that the US will spend more on servicing its debt than on its military budget, which is approximately $900 billion annually. Furthermore, the CBO forecasts a staggering $2.1 trillion deficit for 2026, which is nearly 6% of the US GDP—a level typically associated with severe economic recessions rather than a period of growth.
The current geopolitical climate, particularly the conflict with Iran and the resurgence of inflation, has prompted the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, to adopt a hawkish stance, suggesting potential interest rate hikes. The Federal Open Market Committee recently approved a 25 basis point increase—the first such hike in over three years. Markets anticipate at least one more increase by 2026, which would further raise the cost of servicing US sovereign debt.
These developments have significant ramifications beyond US borders, particularly for Europe. The global financial system remains heavily dollar-centric, with the US dollar constituting nearly 60% of all global foreign exchange reserves. When the US government issues bonds to finance its deficits, it directly influences global liquidity by absorbing available capital. In early September 2026, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 4.8%, which has had a ripple effect on European bond markets, leading to increased borrowing costs for Eurozone member states and businesses.
As US yields rise, European debt yields are also under upward pressure, compelling European corporations to offer higher premiums to attract capital. This fiscal trajectory is prompting a shift in international capital behavior, with official foreign investments in US bonds showing signs of fatigue. Major foreign holders are gradually reducing their stakes in US debt, while central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves, increasingly turning to tangible assets. This trend has helped maintain high gold prices, which hover around $4,475 per ounce.
Despite warnings from analysts and global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund, there appears to be a lack of political will in Washington for fiscal consolidation. Both major political factions seem to favor strategies that rely on debt issuance, whether through tax cuts that diminish federal revenue or increased public spending on infrastructure and social programs.
As the US tests the limits of its "super privilege"—the unique economic advantage of issuing the world's primary reserve currency—the investment landscape is becoming fragmented. Investors are becoming increasingly aware that holding American bonds carries real risks related to inflation and liquidity. For policymakers and fund managers, the message is clear: the stability of the global financial architecture is shifting under the weight of Washington's balance sheet. Consequently, diversifying into safe assets that are not tied to the US dollar may emerge as a long-term strategic option for investors seeking to mitigate risks associated with the changing economic landscape.
As the world grapples with these developments, the traditional view of the US dollar as an unwavering safe haven is being challenged, prompting a rethinking of its role in global finance.