Baltic states fear Russia-Ukraine war spillover after drone incursions

Baltic states fear Ukraine war spillover after drone incursionsRecent incidents heighten anxieties that hybrid warfare tactics could trigger military confrontation with Russia.Lithuanian armed special forces and members of the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union take part in a military exercise in central Lithuania [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera]A member of the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union joins in military exercises in central Lithuania [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera]By Nils AdlerPublished On 10 Jun 202610 Jun 2026SaveSharefacebookxwhatsapp-strokecopylinkAlong the forests and marshlands that separate the Baltic states from Russia and Belarus, workers are digging anti-tank ditches, pouring concrete bunkers and erecting rows of dragon's teeth - jagged concrete obstacles designed to slow and channel advancing armour - to buy precious time in the event of an attack.Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reignited old fears in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where memories of Soviet rule remain close to the surface.In the years since, those fears have been channelled into preparation. Defence budgets have surged, military exercises have intensified, and new fortifications have emerged even as daily life largely continues as normal.However, in recent months, the physical sense of distance from the war has begun to erode after a series of suspected Ukrainian drones veered off course and entered the airspace of the Baltic states.Ukraine says the drones were diverted by Russian electronic jamming, and Moscow denies responsibility. Yet the incidents have fuelled uncertainty across the region.In mid-May, two drone incidents within 48 hours of each other rattled the region. A Romanian NATO fighter jet was scrambled in response to one incursion, while Lithuania issued a public alert urging residents and its parliament to seek shelter during another.Amid these tensions, Russia claimed to have information that Ukraine planned to launch military drones from Latvia.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s military was preparing an “appropriate” response.Latvia dismissed the claims as false. The ruling coalition eventually collapsed after an argument over the government's handling of stray drones.But beyond the rhetoric and political turmoil, more fundamental questions remain. Do people in the Baltics feel they are edging closer to direct military confrontation? And how real is that possibility?Lithuania: Watching the Suwalki GapNear the border of Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, Lithuanians say drone incursions and military activity are fuelling anxiety about future conflict.People take shelter in an underground car park during an air raid alert in Vilnius, Lithuania, May 20, 2026 [Vygintas Skaraitis/Lrytas via AP]People take shelter in an underground car park during an air raid alert in Vilnius, Lithuania, May 20, 2026 [Vygintas Skaraitis/Lrytas via AP] Population: 2.8 million people Defence spending: 5.38 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) Border with Belarus: 678.8km (422 miles) Border with Russia (Kaliningrad): 274km (170 miles) Lithuania is in a precarious position.The largest of the Baltic states, it borders Kaliningrad, a sliver of Russian territory sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland that is home to nuclear-capable Iskander missile systems.It is also close to the Suwalki Gap, a narrow 65-kilometre (40-mile) land corridor between Poland and Lithuania that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus and is seen as NATO’s most vulnerable chokepoint.Military analysts warn that the Russian military could attempt to sever the Suwalki Gap from Kaliningrad and Belarus to isolate the Baltic states before NATO could respond.Tensions have been rising for months.In October, a local resident who requested anonymity spoke of loud explosions and the sounds of military drills on some nights, and severe interference with mobile signals.“If they’re coming, they will come for here,” he said, referring to the Russian military.Thousands of volunteers have undertaken military training in cordoned-off villages across Kaunas County, in the centre of the country. Anti-drone warfare was the focus of most exercises. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that recent drone incidents fuel worries about the future.“Anxiety drives calculations for investments, planning families; it creates uncertainty,” he said, adding that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to sow unease in the population.In a 2025 poll by Baltijos Tyrimai, half of respondents said they felt anxious ahead of Belarusian-Russian military exercises near the border.In a 2025 public opinion poll carried out by Spinter Research at the request of the Ministry of National Defence, 76 percent of respondents thought that Russia “poses hybrid threats to Lithuania”.Lansbergis says the rate of drone incursions is manageable now, but he believes severe escalations or outright war remain a real possibility.Latvia: Drone incursions and hybrid warfareDrone incursions and debates over language rights have heightened concerns that Russia could exploit divisions within Latvian society.A high-speed interceptor drone, Raven X4, flies during Innovation Range Demo Day at the Selija Military Training Area in Latvia, May 26, 2026 [Toms Kalnins/EPA]A person walks past the Freedom Monument honouring soldiers killed during the Latvian War of Independence [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera] Population: 1.83 million Defence spending: 4.73 percent of GDP (forecast for 2026) Border with Belarus: 172km (107 miles) Border with Russia: 284km (177 miles) In March and May, suspected Ukrainian drones crossed into Latvia from Russia. One exploded at an oil storage facility in the eastern city of Rezekne.Then-Prime Minister Evika Silina, who was criticised for the military's slow response and air defence gaps, dismissed Defence Minister Andris Spruds. The fallout eventually led to Silina's own resignation.Ukrainian flags hang in front of Russia's embassy in Riga, Latvia [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera]After the war began, Ukrainian flags were draped around Riga along with signs criticising Putin.In a survey conducted by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 71 percent of Latvians viewed Russia as a threat to European security, compared to just 8 percent among the Russian-speaking minority, mainly based in the country’s second-largest city, Daugavpils.Latvia is highly attuned to hybrid threats, particularly disinformation aimed at exploiting divisions between ethnic Latvians and Russian speakers, Eldar Mamedov, a former Latvian diplomat and currently a Quincy Institute non-resident fellow, told Al Jazeera.At times, through its policies, Latvia has contributed to those divisions, emphasising linguistic assimilation over broader integration, Mamedov said.The issue resurfaced after the nationalist National Alliance joined the ruling coalition and secured the Ministry of the Interior.One of the new ministers' first decisions was to declare Latvian the sole acceptable language throughout the ministry system, including the police, Mamedov explained.Supporters see the move as strengthening national identity, while critics argue it risks alienating a large minority and creating social fractures that Russia could seek to exploit.“By alienating one-third of its own population, Latvia is not neutralising a threat - it is creating one," Mamedov said. "To the extent the Kremlin gains leverage over these communities, it is precisely because they feel disenfranchised.”Estonia: Watching Russia's long gameDrone and airspace incidents have put Estonians on edge, but officials say Russia is not preparing an imminent attack.Russian artists perform during a concert celebrating the 81st anniversary of the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany, at a fortress in Ivangorod, Russia, photographed from across the river in Narva, Estonia, on the Russian-Estonian border, on May 9, 2026 [Sergei Grits/AP]This September 19, 2025 image released by the Swedish Air Force shows a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet flying above the Baltic Sea after violating Estonian airspace [AFP] Population: 1.37 million Defence spending: 5.4 percent of GDP Border with Russia: 338km (210 miles) Estonia, the smallest of the Baltic states, has experienced some dramatic incidents.In September, Tallinn said Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace for 12 minutes. NATO scrambled Italian F-35s stationed in Estonia as part of the Baltic Air Policing mission. Russia denied violating Estonian airspace.In March, a stray Ukrainian military drone crashed into Estonia's Auvere power station.In April and May, Estonian authorities said drones entered their airspace, grounding flights and prompting warnings issued to citizens.Estonia's intelligence services have said that the country does not believe Russia is preparing an imminent military attack on NATO, but that Moscow may be rebuilding its forces for the long term while engaging in hybrid attacks through drones, cyber operations, and sabotage.Tallinn claims one such hybrid method is the so-called "Narva People's Republic", a pro-Russian separatist narrative that casts Estonia's Russian-speaking border region as a distinct political entity, echoing the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" used by Moscow as a pretext for intervention in Ukraine.Estonian authorities say it is part of a disinformation campaign rather than a credible separatist movement.Its military has, at times, been bellicose in its statements.In May, Estonia's Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo argued that Russia is rebuilding its military much faster than many Europeans realise and that Estonia must be ready for a renewed military threat within the next few years, marking 2027 as a critical benchmark for readiness.In September 2024, in an interview with the Estonian public broadcaster ERR, Estonian General Vahur Karus stated that if Moscow showed signs of preparing for an attack, Estonia could strike the Russians first.“Our capability to neutralise the enemy on its own territory is crucial,” he said.However, the government's rhetoric has been more measured.In April, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy suggested in an interview that a new wave of Russian mobilisation may be used to launch an attack on the Baltic states.But Estonian politicians, including the foreign minister, warned that the remarks echoed Moscow’s objective of stoking fears and made cooperation difficult.“We do not see Russia concentrating its forces or preparing in any way militarily to attack NATO or the Baltic states; rather, it is the opposite. Russia is not in a very strong position on the Ukrainian front, and economically as well,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told ERR.“No one is in the streets panicking,” Tony Lawrence, a research fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, told Al Jazeera.The air incursions have “put people on edge”, but there is a sense that Russian forces are too preoccupied in Ukraine, he said.NATO: The Baltics' ultimate security guaranteeThe Baltic states depend on NATO's deterrent power, but questions about US commitment have fuelled unease.German troops march during a public ceremony to mark the expansion of Germany's Lithuania military commitment in Kaunas, Lithuania [File: Paulius Peleckis/Getty]German troops march during a public ceremony to mark the expansion of Germany's Lithuania military commitment in Kaunas, Lithuania [File: Paulius Peleckis/Getty]In a military confrontation with Russia, the Baltic states would have to face a country that dwarfs all three nations' combined size and military might.Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have a population of about six million people overall, roughly equivalent to that of St Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city.Russia is also 96 times larger than the three countries combined.While the Baltic states have become some of NATO's most committed defence spenders and have built modern militaries, defence analysts broadly agree that their comparatively modest military resources mean they ultimately rely on the military alliance's collective strength. But the United States is scaling back from the alliance while demanding Europe take over its own land defence.There are approximately 15,000 to 22,000 multinational NATO troops deployed directly across the Baltic states and Poland.US President Donald Trump has long criticised European NATO allies for underspending on defence, and has intensified his attacks after many refused to join the US-Israeli war on Iran.In May, Trump announced he was withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany following a disagreement with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and he scrapped a planned deployment of around 4,000 US troops to Poland.A few days later, he reneged on the plans and said the US would deploy an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, much to the relief of its Baltic neighbour, Lithuania.In May, US Under Secretary of State Thomas G DiNanno travelled to Tallinn to attend the Lennart Meri Defence and Security Conference.On the Rest is Classified podcast, journalists who attended the event said that when DiNanno was asked twice whether the US would come to the defence of the Baltic states if they were invaded, he largely sidestepped the question.In an April interview, Zelenskyy appeared concerned. "I think that maybe not all countries would want to support [the Baltic states]. But in my opinion, NATO countries have no choice - otherwise NATO will no longer exist,” he said.NATO has responded to questions about its stability by aggressively escalating its defence posture in the Baltic region, including accelerating the deployment of specialised acoustic sensors, drone interceptors, and jamming systems along its Eastern Sentry mission.Landsbergis said that even though NATO would have to help the Baltic states, a weaker NATO would be a “weaker deterrent” for Putin to factor into his calculations for any future military actions.