Dark crossings in Hormuz hide true scale of Gulf oil exports

Cyprus flagged vessels face mounting danger in Middle East watersGreek-owned tankers are disappearing from tracking screens as they cross the Strait of Hormuz at night under US military escort, then resurfacing in the Gulf of Oman to transfer crude to ships waiting outside the conflict zone. The shuttle system has allowed Gulf producers to keep more oil moving despite Iranian attacks and the failure of negotiations to restore normal navigation. It has also created a widening gap between the traffic visible on commercial tracking platforms and the amount of oil believed to be passing through the strait. The Greek-owned very large crude carrier Kiku provides one example. After loading crude at Qatar’s Mesaieed terminal in late July, the tanker sailed towards Hormuz before its Automatic Identification System, known as AIS, stopped transmitting near Dubai on July 31. Its signal reappeared the following morning off Fujairah, on the other side of the strait, where it anchored alongside another Greek-owned tanker, Nave Electron, for a ship-to-ship transfer. The two vessels remained together for about a week. Nave Electron then left the area carrying crude towards Ningbo in China, while Kiku stayed near Fujairah before switching off its signal again on August 14. It reappeared inside the Persian Gulf the following day, heading back towards Qatar. Nissos Kythnos followed a similar pattern. Satellite images showed the Greek-owned tanker alongside Front Otra in the Gulf of Oman after completing a dark crossing. Front Otra was later detected heading towards Taiwan, while Nissos Kythnos returned to the Gulf. More than a dozen such transfers were identified over two days, with receiving tankers later travelling to China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. These journeys are no longer exceptional. Around 80 per cent of Hormuz traffic during the past two weeks travelled without an active AIS signal, according to Kpler, up from the 62 per cent recorded in earlier tanker data. The blackouts help explain why two very different pictures of Hormuz have emerged. US energy officials estimate that 8 million to 9 million barrels of oil per day are crossing the strait, roughly twice the volume captured through conventional ship-tracking data. The latest traffic figures showed just 17 commodity vessels passing during the weekend, with 13 crossings on Saturday and four on Sunday. AIS-detected activity remained about 90 per cent below pre-conflict levels. An AIS blackout does not automatically point to wrongdoing. International maritime rules allow a ship’s master to disable the system when continued transmission could place the vessel and crew at risk. However, the missing signals make it far harder for shipowners, charterers, traders and insurers to establish which route a vessel used, where its cargo was transferred and how much oil is actually leaving the Gulf. The physical danger also remains high. UK Maritime Trade Operations has recorded 23 projectile strikes since July 6, causing damage to bridges, engine rooms and vessel structures. With movements through Hormuz still restricted, Gulf producers have increased their use of pipelines and alternative export terminals. Saudi Arabia is sending about 5 million barrels per day through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while other regional producers have redirected another 2 million barrels away from the strait. Those alternatives now face their own threat. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that Tehran could target other regional oil routes if neighbouring countries support the new US sanctions. Rezaei said that “not a single drop of oil” would leave the Persian Gulf if the economic pressure continued. Although he did not identify individual facilities, the warning places greater attention on Yanbu, the UAE export hub of Fujairah and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline system. Iran raised the pressure further on Monday by warning that vessels failing to follow its transit arrangements could face fines, detention and confiscation. The newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority also said ships conducting transfers with vessels on its restricted list could themselves be blacklisted. Under the new restrictions, cargo owners have been told to check the list before arranging voyages connected with the Gulf. The move directly challenges the shuttle system now keeping oil moving. It also expands the risk beyond the passage itself, forcing managers and charterers to examine the status of every vessel involved in a transfer. Cyprus is already seeing the disruption turn into a direct logistics cost. From Monday, Maersk doubled its fuel surcharge on truck transport connected with import and export shipments in Cyprus to 10 per cent from 5 per cent, citing higher fuel costs caused by the situation in the Middle East. The temporary charge will be reviewed weekly instead of monthly and will appear on invoices as an Export Fuel Surcharge and Import Fuel Surcharge. It will remain in place for as long as the company considers necessary to cover its additional costs. The island also remains exposed at sea. The Shipping Deputy Ministry’s latest published figure placed 23 Cyprus-flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The GFS Galaxy attack in July has already shown the risks facing the Cyprus register. The container ship suffered extensive engine-room damage, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and leaving one seafarer dead. International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) Secretary General Thomas Kazakos, the former head of the Cyprus Shipping Chamber (CSC), has challenged attempts to impose new clearance requirements. Kazakos said there was “no legal mechanism by which a toll or restrictions can be placed” on vessels passing through Hormuz, calling for ships to travel through the strait without compulsory charges and clearance mechanisms. Industry position The Red Sea provides no simple escape from the danger. MSC has quietly sent seven container ships through Bab el-Mandeb with their AIS signals switched off, testing a return to the Suez Canal without formally announcing a wider restoration of services. The vessels included the 24,346-TEU MSC Irina, the 23,782-TEU MSC Amelia, the 19,224-TEU MSC Oliver and the 15,576-TEU MSC Napoli. Sailing through Suez can cut seven to 14 days from voyages between Asia and Europe, lowering fuel costs and returning ships to service more quickly. Maersk has already moved about 30 per cent of the volumes previously diverted around Africa back through the Red Sea, while other major carriers are also increasing their use of the route. However, the deadly attack on the cargo ship Tihamah on August 11, which killed four sailors and two Yemeni rescuers, showed how quickly that calculation can change. Oil and cargo are still moving, but through military escorts, missing signals, transfers at sea and routes that are themselves being pulled deeper into the conflict. Cyprus businesses are now beginning to pay for the difference.