Global air passenger demand slips 0.8 per cent in August

Global air passenger demand fell by 0.8 per cent year-on-year in August 2026, as a sharp contraction in the Middle East weighed on overall traffic, according to figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, however, total passenger demand increased by 0.6 per cent compared with August 2025. At the same time, total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, rose by 0.3 per cent, while the global passenger load factor fell by 0.9 percentage points to 85.1 per cent. International passenger demand also weakened, falling by 0.9 per cent year-on-year. Excluding the Middle East, however, international demand increased by 1.3 per cent. Capacity on international routes was unchanged from a year earlier, while the load factor slipped by 0.8 percentage points to 85 per cent. Domestic demand, meanwhile, declined by 0.5 per cent, despite capacity increasing by 0.7 per cent. As a result, the domestic load factor fell by 1.1 percentage points to 85.3 per cent. IATA senior vice president for sustainability and chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen said “global demand for air transport contracted by 0.8 per cent compared to August 2025 as the recovery trajectory for carriers in the Middle East was interrupted”. She added that the region’s carriers reported demand 14.6 per cent lower year-on-year, reversing an improving trend. At the same time, Owens Thomsen said “excluding the Middle East carriers, demand for air travel grew by 0.6 per cent year-on-year in August, half the pace seen in July”. She also pointed out that, with some important exceptions such as domestic China, global connectivity was generally weaker during the month. Looking ahead, she said the coming months would show whether travellers, whose purchasing power has been reduced by higher energy prices, are adjusting their travel budgets and whether geopolitical instability is discouraging travel. Nevertheless, forward schedules for October showed available seats rising by 2 per cent, which Owens Thomsen described as a sign of cautious optimism. In terms of market size, Asia-Pacific remained the largest regional passenger market, accounting for 34.4 per cent of industry revenue passenger kilometres in 2025. Europe followed with 26.7 per cent, while North America accounted for 21.8 per cent. The Middle East represented 9.5 per cent of the market, Latin America and the Caribbean 5.4 per cent, and Africa 2.2 per cent. Across the total market, Latin America and the Caribbean recorded the strongest demand growth at 5.3 per cent, although capacity increased slightly faster at 6.3 per cent. Consequently, the region’s load factor fell by 0.8 percentage points to 84 per cent. African carriers also posted solid growth, with total passenger demand rising by 4.4 per cent. Capacity, however, increased by 7.2 per cent, pushing the load factor down by 2.1 percentage points to 77.5 per cent. Asia-Pacific airlines, meanwhile, recorded total demand growth of 1.4 per cent, broadly in line with the 1.3 per cent increase in capacity. This allowed the region’s load factor to edge up by 0.1 percentage points to 85.9 per cent. European carriers also remained in positive territory, with total passenger demand increasing by 0.7 per cent. Capacity rose more quickly, however, at 1.4 per cent, resulting in a 0.6 percentage point decline in the load factor to 87.5 per cent, still the highest among all regions. By contrast, North American carriers recorded a 2.2 per cent decline in total demand, while capacity fell by 1 per cent. The region’s load factor consequently decreased by one percentage point to 84.6 per cent. The sharpest deterioration was recorded in the Middle East, where total demand fell by 14.6 per cent and capacity declined by 9.3 per cent. As a result, the region’s load factor dropped by 4.9 percentage points to 78.9 per cent. Turning to international passenger markets, overall traffic fell by 0.9 per cent year-on-year, while capacity remained unchanged. Once again, however, the picture was stronger when the Middle East was excluded, with international demand increasing by 1.3 per cent. Asia-Pacific airlines saw international demand decline slightly by 0.1 per cent, while capacity fell by 0.9 per cent. As a result, the region’s international load factor increased by 0.7 percentage points to 85.6 per cent. Within the region, traffic on routes within Asia fell by 2 per cent, while capacity declined for a fourth consecutive month. By contrast, traffic on the Asia–North America corridor increased by 2.5 per cent. European carriers performed more strongly, recording a 2.1 per cent increase in international demand. Capacity rose by 2.8 per cent, however, causing the load factor to fall by 0.6 percentage points to 86.8 per cent. At route level, the Europe–Asia corridor continued to expand strongly, with traffic rising by 12.2 per cent. Transatlantic traffic moved in the opposite direction, however, falling by 2.4 per cent, with declines recorded in several markets, including the UK and France. North American carriers also saw international demand weaken, falling by 1.7 per cent, while capacity declined by 1.1 per cent. Their load factor slipped by 0.5 percentage points to 86.8 per cent. The Middle East again recorded the weakest performance, with international demand down by 14.2 per cent and capacity falling by 9 per cent. This pushed the region’s load factor down by 4.8 percentage points to 79.1 per cent. IATA said the deterioration in Middle Eastern traffic worsened in August, reversing the gradual stabilisation seen since the Iran war in February. In particular, the year-on-year contraction on Middle East–Asia routes deepened to 11.7 per cent from 8.6 per cent in July. Elsewhere, Latin American airlines recorded a 6.7 per cent increase in international demand, while capacity rose by 6.4 per cent. As demand slightly outpaced capacity, the load factor increased by 0.2 percentage points to 84.8 per cent. African airlines also posted 6.7 per cent growth in international demand. Capacity, however, rose faster at 8.3 per cent, leading to a 1.2 percentage point decline in the load factor to 78.4 per cent. Domestic passenger traffic, which accounted for 37.2 per cent of industry revenue passenger kilometres in 2025, fell by 0.5 per cent year-on-year in August. IATA said domestic travel declined in Japan and the United States, while India recorded a particularly sharp contraction. Chinese domestic travel, by contrast, strengthened on the back of summer travel demand. The United States remained the largest domestic market covered by IATA, accounting for 13.6 per cent of industry passenger traffic, followed by China at 11.3 per cent. India accounted for 1.7 per cent, Brazil for 1.2 per cent, Japan for 1 per cent and Australia for 0.8 per cent. Among the individual domestic markets, China recorded the strongest growth, with passenger demand increasing by 5.8 per cent. Capacity rose slightly faster at 6.5 per cent, however, causing the load factor to fall by 0.5 percentage points to 85.7 per cent. Brazil followed with domestic demand growth of 4.3 per cent, although capacity expanded by a much stronger 8 per cent. Consequently, the load factor fell by 2.9 percentage points to 82.1 per cent. Australia also recorded growth, with domestic demand increasing by 2.3 per cent while capacity rose by just 0.4 per cent. This pushed the load factor up by 1.6 percentage points to 85.8 per cent. At the other end of the table, India recorded the sharpest domestic decline, with demand falling by 7.5 per cent. Capacity declined by just 1.2 per cent, resulting in a steep 5.4 percentage point drop in the load factor to 78.7 per cent. US domestic demand also weakened, falling by 2.9 per cent, while capacity declined by 1.1 per cent. As a result, the load factor fell by 1.5 percentage points to 83 per cent. Japan, meanwhile, recorded a 2 per cent decline in domestic demand, broadly matched by a 2.1 per cent reduction in capacity. Its load factor therefore edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 90 per cent, the highest among the domestic markets covered.