Hormuz nearly paralysed as just two ships pass in 24 hours

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped, with only two commodity vessels passing through the waterway on Wednesday, as negotiations over a new transit corridor struggle to keep pace with the worsening reality at sea. The figure was down from eight crossings on Tuesday and was a fraction of the 130 to 140 daily transits recorded before the conflict, according to Kpler figures. The collapse shows that, despite signs of diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman, shipowners, insurers and crews remain deeply reluctant to treat Hormuz as safe. Iran and Oman said this week that they had reached an understanding on the geographical coordinates of a proposed shipping route through the strait, with a joint announcement reportedly in the final stages of preparation. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei acknowledged that an agreement between Tehran and Muscat would not by itself guarantee security, while regional officials cautioned that important operational and political details remain unresolved. Under the emerging framework, ships entering the Persian Gulf would reportedly use a route controlled by Iran, while outbound vessels would pass through a corridor administered by Oman. This would give Tehran a formal role in managing Gulf-bound traffic, a major change from the pre-war system of unrestricted transit through the international waterway. Nevertheless, the proposed arrangement leaves difficult questions unanswered, including who would authorise entry, how inspections would be conducted and whether Iran could delay or reject individual vessels. The greatest commercial dispute concerns the possible transit charges. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran was seeking fees equivalent to 5 to 7 per cent of cargo value, while Oman had discussed a rate of around 3 per cent. Washington, meanwhile, has insisted that no fees should be imposed. Such charges would be considerably more damaging than an ordinary port or navigation fee. Even a 3 per cent levy on a fully laden tanker carrying crude oil, liquefied natural gas or refined products could add millions of dollars to a single voyage, with the cost eventually divided between shipowners, charterers, traders and buyers. A temporary, fee-free framework remains under discussion. However, without a final agreement, shipping companies cannot reliably price voyages, arrange insurance or assure crews that vessels will be permitted to complete their passage. The international shipping industry has already mounted a coordinated challenge to any compulsory payment system. Eight associations, including the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), BIMCO, Intercargo, Intertanko and European Shipowners, warned the United Nations and the International Maritime Organisation that charges presented as “service fees” could amount to tolls in all but name. The joint appeal said compulsory payments would undermine freedom of navigation and establish a dangerous precedent for other international waterways. Thomas Kazakos, the Cypriot secretary-general of the ICS, had previously stressed that “there is no legal mechanism by which a toll or restrictions can be placed” on ships passing through Hormuz. Meanwhile, the commercial damage is extending well beyond the ships waiting inside or outside the Persian Gulf. Every vessel held at anchor or kept away from the region remains unavailable for other cargoes, reducing effective transport capacity and adding pressure to freight rates. Insurance costs also remain prohibitive. By late July, war-risk premiums for Hormuz voyages were running at around four times their five-year average, while premiums for ships using Bab el-Mandeb had also risen sharply, according to insurance estimates. The problem is now spreading to the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. Only one commodity vessel, a Bahamas-flagged bulk carrier, passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Wednesday, compared with 20 the previous day. The decline followed claims by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis that they had attacked the Saudi tanker Wafa near the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the tanker Daisy in the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed either attack. Separately, the master of another tanker reported hearing an explosion about 95 nautical miles southeast of Aden. The vessel and crew were reported safe, with no environmental damage, although the incident remained under investigation. The simultaneous disruption of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb creates a double chokehold on energy shipping. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on Yanbu and its east-west pipeline as an alternative to Gulf export routes, but the Houthi threat is now placing greater risk around that outlet as well. Although Gulf crude oil and condensate exports held at around 10.7 million barrels per day in July, they remained approximately 40 per cent below pre-war levels, according to export data. Energy markets are consequently watching ship movements as closely as diplomatic announcements. Brent crude rose by 48 cents to $79.93 per barrel on Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate reached $75.51, as investors remained cautious over whether the Iran-Oman talks could genuinely restore traffic through Hormuz, according to oil prices. Behind the freight rates and oil prices, however, the human cost continues to rise. The IMO records 64 confirmed incidents involving merchant ships in the Middle East up to August 4, together with 17 seafarer deaths. The latest list includes the August 3 incident involving the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer, which was damaged about 20 nautical miles northeast of Al Khasab in Oman. One seafarer remains missing, while no pollution was reported. Cyprus has already been drawn directly into the crisis. The Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy suffered extensive engine-room damage after being struck in Hormuz in July, forcing 23 crew members to abandon the vessel. Indian marine engineer Heramb Karmarkar was killed in the Cyprus-flagged attack. For ship managers, the preferred decision therefore remains to wait. A corridor marked on a chart is of little value unless it is supported by credible protection, affordable insurance, transparent inspections and the willingness of seafarers to enter an active conflict zone. The real reopening of Hormuz will be measured through sustained daily crossings, the return of non-Iranian commercial traffic and a clear reduction in war-risk premiums. Until those signs appear, the two ships recorded in 24 hours show that Hormuz may be open to negotiation, but remains effectively closed to normal shipping.