How severely did spring regional instability affect Cyprus air travel?

Summer surge helps close the gap with last year's record-breaking figuresPassenger traffic through Larnaca and Paphos airports was 7.9 per cent higher in the first eight months of 2026 than in the same period of 2024, despite a sharp spring disruption linked to regional instability, but remained 3.3 per cent below the exceptional levels recorded in 2025, Hermes Airports figures show. The two airports handled 8.82 million passengers between January and August 2026, compared with 9.13 million in the corresponding period of 2025 and 8.18 million in 2024. The figures provide a mixed picture for Cyprus’ aviation and tourism sectors as the island continues to absorb the effects of the Iran war and wider instability in the Middle East. They show that passenger traffic has not fallen back to 2024 levels, despite the disruption experienced during the spring, while the gap with the record-breaking 2025 season has narrowed considerably during the summer. The comparison is particularly significant because 2025 was a record year for Cyprus tourism and air traffic, with the two airports handling 13.75 million passengers over the full year, compared with 12.30 million in 2024. That represented an increase of approximately 12 per cent in a single year. Eurobank Research has similarly described 2025 as an exceptional year for Cyprus tourism, with tourist arrivals reaching a record 4.53 million, up 12.2 per cent from 2024. Against that unusually strong base, the performance of 2026 has been more resilient than the headline year-to-date decline might suggest. The first three months of 2026 actually produced 2.56 per cent more airport passengers than the corresponding period of 2025, with 1.84 million compared with 1.79 million. The picture changed sharply in the spring. Passenger traffic in March fell to 599,139, down 15.3 per cent from 707,204 in March 2025 and 10.3 per cent from March 2024. April was similarly weak, with combined traffic falling to 971,348, a decline of 16.1 per cent compared with 1.16 million in April 2025. The April figure, however, was still 1.3 per cent above the 959,269 passengers recorded in April 2024. May brought a further improvement, although traffic remained 4.1 per cent below the corresponding month of 2025. The two airports handled 1.23 million passengers in May 2026, compared with 1.28 million in May 2025 and 1.14 million in May 2024. The summer then showed a much clearer recovery. June traffic stood at 1.38 million passengers, down 4.1 per cent from 1.44 million in June 2025 but 6.0 per cent above June 2024. July followed with 1.63 million passengers, just 1.1 per cent below the 1.65 million recorded in July 2025 and 9.2 per cent above July 2024. August produced the strongest monthly result of 2026, with 1.77 million passengers, although this was still 1.5 per cent below the 1.80 million recorded during the same month last year. At the same time, August traffic was 10.7 per cent higher than the 1.60 million passengers recorded in August 2024. The narrowing gap with 2025 is also evident when the spring and summer are considered separately. Traffic during April and May was 9.8 per cent below the corresponding period of 2025, but June to August saw the deficit narrow to just 2.2 per cent. Compared with 2024, however, passenger traffic during June to August was 8.8 per cent higher. The figures therefore suggest that the impact of the regional conflict was concentrated heavily in the spring, while demand recovered as the main summer travel season progressed. This pattern is consistent with the assessment of Eurobank Research, which said Cyprus tourism had recovered sharply during the summer after spring disruptions caused by Middle Eastern instability and turbulence in air travel. Eurobank said tourist arrivals between January and July were 8.0 per cent lower year-on-year, largely because arrivals from the United Kingdom fell by 11.1 per cent. This was partly offset by an 8.6 per cent increase in arrivals from Israel, while July arrivals were only 1.1 per cent below the level recorded in July 2025. Eurobank Research said airlines had largely retained their routes, pointing towards a temporary demand shock rather than a structural decline in Cyprus tourism. The latest airport figures reinforce that interpretation, with the year-on-year shortfall shrinking from more than 15 per cent in March and April to just over 1 per cent in July and August. The two airports have also performed differently. Larnaca, Cyprus’ main air gateway, handled 6.15 million passengers during the first eight months of 2026, compared with 7.10 million during the same period of 2025 and 6.02 million in 2024. That means Larnaca traffic was 13.4 per cent below its 2025 level for the period, but 2.2 per cent above 2024. Paphos recorded 2.67 million passengers between January and August 2026, compared with 2.03 million in the corresponding period of 2025 and 2.16 million in 2024. Paphos therefore recorded 31.8 per cent growth compared with 2025 and 23.9 per cent growth compared with 2024 over the first eight months. The particularly strong Paphos performance helped offset the sharper decline at Larnaca. The overall airport figures also show how difficult it will be for Cyprus to match 2025’s record performance even if the summer recovery continues. Eurobank Research recently outlined two possible scenarios for the remainder of 2026. Under its baseline scenario, if tourist arrivals between August and December remain roughly 1 per cent below the corresponding 2025 levels, total arrivals for the year would reach 4.32 million. That would represent a 4.7 per cent decline from the 4.53 million arrivals recorded in the record year of 2025. It would nevertheless leave tourist arrivals 6.9 per cent above 2024, the bank reported. Under a more cautious scenario, in which arrivals during the final five months fall by 3.3 per cent, total arrivals would reach approximately 4.27 million. That would be 5.8 per cent below 2025, but still 5.7 per cent above 2024, the bank stated. The two scenarios therefore point towards a normalisation after the exceptional 2025 peak rather than a structural deterioration in Cyprus tourism. Eurobank Research said the continuation of the recovery would depend on regional stability and the further expansion of continental European markets. The airport figures underline the importance of that distinction. If 2026 is compared only with 2025, the first eight months show a decline of 3.3 per cent. But compared with 2024, before the record tourism performance of 2025, traffic is almost 8 per cent higher. The trajectory has also improved substantially since the worst months of the spring, when the effects of the Iran war and wider Middle Eastern instability were most visible in air travel. The August figures suggest that the summer peak has therefore brought Cyprus considerably closer to last year’s exceptional passenger levels. Whether the island can maintain that momentum through the final months of 2026 will depend heavily on the regional security situation, airline capacity and the ability of European markets to compensate for weaker demand from some traditional source markets. For now, however, the three-year comparison suggests that Cyprus has lost ground from its 2025 record, but has not lost the gains made over 2024.