Maritime expert warns of interconnected chain of global shipping crises

Greek and Cypriot shipping fleets face heightened global exposureCommercial shipping is no longer dealing with isolated danger zones, but with a chain of crises that are increasingly feeding into one another, Nikolas-Alketas Drosos, Maritime Commercial Manager & Country Representative for Greece and Cyprus at EOS Risk Group, has warned. Drosos said the old model of maritime risk, built around clearly defined danger zones and standard security measures, no longer reflects what shipowners, operators and insurers are facing. He said that “for decades, international shipping operated under the assumption that the greatest threats were located in specific areas and were addressed with specific security measures,” he said, adding that “today, this assumption is collapsing”. From the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, and from the South China Sea to the Baltic, he said commercial shipping is now operating in an environment where state rivalry, terrorism, piracy, organised crime and migration pressures are no longer separate risks. According to Drosos, the main concern is not simply that the threats have increased. It is that they are developing at the same time, across routes that are essential for energy, food, raw materials and consumer goods. That has turned maritime security into a commercial issue as much as a defence one, with route planning, insurance, crew safety and chartering decisions increasingly shaped by geopolitical developments. The most sensitive point remains Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Drosos said that, although diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran are continuing through mediators, the central disagreement over security control in the area has not been resolved. Tehran, he explained, wants commercial shipping to pass through the northern route under its own operational control, while Washington supports the southern route through Omani territorial waters. In practice, he said, “two major powers are trying to impose different security rules on the same maritime area”, meaning that one incident could be enough to trigger a wider crisis within hours. The Red Sea remains another pressure point. Houthi attacks may have fallen compared with previous months, but the risk has not disappeared, with Drosos noting that ships with a real or perceived link to Israel continue to be treated by the group as legitimate targets. That threat, he said, continues to affect both the operational planning of shipping companies and the policy of insurance organisations, leaving little room for complacency. At the same time, Somali piracy is reappearing in the Gulf of Aden. Attacks are now being reported further from the Somali coast, while three merchant vessels remain under the control of pirate groups. Drosos said this showed how quickly criminal networks can exploit wider instability, explaining that periods of geopolitical tension often create space for organised crime to return at sea. Further east, the situation around Scarborough Shoal is also raising concern. China has stepped up naval and air patrols in an area also claimed by the Philippines, increasing the risk of dangerous incidents involving Chinese, Philippine and American forces. Drosos said this does not necessarily mean that open conflict is imminent. However, he described China’s approach as one of constant presence, gradual consolidation of control and the creation of new facts on the water without prior open conflict. The Baltic has also entered the wider risk picture. Drosos referred to images showing a Russian LNG tanker fitted with heavy machine guns, saying that, whatever the operational purpose of the weapons, the image blurs the boundary between civilian and military activity at sea. The issue, he said, is no longer only whether a ship is carrying commercial cargo, but when a merchant vessel begins to function as a strategic tool of the state. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Drosos also pointed to the rise in migrant flows from Libya to Crete, saying this is no longer only a humanitarian issue. It is also creating greater operational demands for the Greek Coast Guard, the Navy, Frontex and European authorities. The Libya-Crete route, he said, has made maritime surveillance, search and rescue capacity, and coordination between national and European authorities even more important. For Greece, the impact is immediate. As the country with the world’s leading merchant fleet, it is directly exposed to every shift in the security environment. Greek-owned vessels operate daily across high-risk regions, meaning that instability in the Gulf, the Red Sea, the Baltic, the South China Sea or the Eastern Mediterranean can quickly feed into insurance costs, route planning, risk management and competitiveness. Drosos said the era in which the safety of a voyage depended mainly on weather conditions is over, adding that every journey now requires constant information monitoring, geopolitical assessment and the ability to adapt quickly. He said the greatest concern is that the world’s maritime flashpoints are no longer developing in isolation. The Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Baltic, the South China Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Caribbean now form part of a wider geopolitical network, where a regional crisis can send shocks through global trade and maritime transport. For countries such as Greece, with a leading maritime presence and a strategic position between Europe, Asia and Africa, Drosos said “maritime security has become a matter of national economy, energy security and international strategy.” The next major crisis, he warned, may not begin in a capital, but with a merchant ship finding itself at the wrong time in the wrong place.