Our View: The Cyprus problem has become a geopolitical issue

To the surprise of absolutely no-one, the two-day visit by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres produced no substantive results, beyond the possibility of a 5+1 conference in the near future if adequate progress is made. This was to be expected since the two sides are seemingly unable to agree on anything. They haven’t even managed to achieve the most basic confidence-building measure, the opening of another crossing point. It’s as though they literally want the two parts of Cyprus to remain divided. Guterres knew all this – so why did he come? Talk of undertaking ‘one last push’ before his term expires isn’t too convincing. It doesn’t help his legacy to keep trying, then fail anyway. Then again, that’s just half the story. Local discourse on the Cyprus problem often seems to assume that the two sides are the only actors, so finding a solution means finding a way to reconcile their opposing demands. We hear a lot about the other side’s ‘intransigence’. But there’s more going on than just the two sides. The Cyprus problem – in terms of what Greek and Turkish Cypriots want – hasn’t changed. What’s changed are the geopolitics around it. Guterres suggested as much in his speech: “This is a region,” he declared, “in which we are witnessing important geopolitical movements… “And so, I believe that a solution in Cyprus is absolutely crucial not only to preserve the interests and the peace of the Cyprus people, but also as a factor of stability in what is becoming a dangerously unstable region.” The world beyond Cyprus is changing. European leaders, especially in Germany and Britain, are now talking openly, and relentlessly, about going to war with Russia – not just by supporting Ukraine, but directly. If they’re serious about this – and it looks like they might be – then the role of Turkey will be pivotal, given its location, Nato membership, and relationship with Russia which, though erratic, is nowhere near as hostile as the West’s in general. It’s important for potential sticking points, like the Cyprus problem, to be cleared up first. Then there’s the Middle East. It’s unlikely that Israel – with US support – will be giving up its quest to topple the Iranian regime, or desist from trying to take over Lebanon. Clearly, those wars are far from over. It also seems clear that Israel has designs on our own island, whether as a safe haven or for more strategic purposes. It’s no secret that Israeli investment in Cyprus is at an all-time high, or that president Christodoulides (like prime minister Mitsotakis in Greece) has a cordial relationship with the Netanyahu government. And what of the US itself, increasingly forced to abandon its bases in the Gulf states? Might it be looking for a suitable candidate where new bases can be established – close enough for war, harder to hit with Iranian missiles? Cyprus is geographically well-placed to be such a candidate. All this is just speculation, of course – but it may explain why Guterres thinks our problem could be solved, despite our own unwillingness to solve it. What would such a solution look like? Would it be a federation, a confederation – perhaps the ‘looser’ solution mentioned by UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin a few weeks ago – or de facto partition? The obvious answer is ‘Nobody cares’. The priority would be solving the problem so as to get it out of the way, not solving it in the fairest or most sustainable way. Then again, that’s not entirely true. One group does care – namely, the Cypriots. The fly in the ointment is the need for a referendum, and the possibility that we might spoil the party again, like we did with the Annan plan. Again, this is just speculation – but it might explain why Guterres decided to visit in person, the first visit by a UNSG since 2010, throwing the full weight of his office behind the process. The best way to avoid a repeat of 2004 would be to make clear that whatever plan is hashed out is an international solution, endorsed by the great and powerful. Cypriots would then surely approve it – whether out of deference, or because we could blame someone else if it didn’t work out. Guterres even ended his speech on a slightly dark note, implying that lack of progress might be to our detriment: “If Cyprus has no solution for its problems, it becomes much more vulnerable to the risks that we are now witnessing in a region that is largely in flames”. It’s become almost a cliché to blame outsiders – primarily the US and UK – for causing our problem by ‘allowing’ the invasion in 1974. Maybe, in a final twist of fate, those who caused it will also end up solving it.