Press review: US-Iran truce strains and EU struggles on new Russia sanctions

Press review: US-Iran truce strains and EU struggles on new Russia sanctions Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, July 1st© Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via APMOSCOW, July 1. /TASS/. The United States and Iran are working to maintain a fragile ceasefire through ongoing negotiations; NATO leaders will gather in Ankara amid divisions over Ukraine, Iran and the alliance's future course; and the European Union has postponed approval of its 21st sanctions package against Russia because of disagreements among member states. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia. Izvestia: US, Iran seek to maintain fragile truce amid Lebanon tensions US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner, who have arrived in Doha, are preparing the basis for future consultations with the Iranian side that are expected to lead to a final agreement. At the same time, the dialogue is hindered by the vague wording of the Islamabad memorandum signed on June 17 and a parallel agreement on Lebanon. Under the latter, Beirut is obliged to disarm Hezbollah, but the group itself refuses to do so. Members of the Knesset told Izvestia that Israel does not believe Lebanon is capable of meeting these conditions, and therefore the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intend to retain freedom of action throughout Lebanese territory, including the capital. Despite the apparent deadlock in finalizing the details, neither Iran nor the United States wants to return to full-scale hostilities, according to Georgy Asatryan, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics. In his view, the campaign has become one of the most unpopular operations in US history: the operation split the MAGA movement, pushed Donald Trump’s approval rating down to 30%, and left Washington without any real mechanisms for completely controlling Tehran. Iran’s economy and industrial sector have also sustained serious damage from the US bombing campaign. Nevertheless, a compromise remains unlikely because of the sides’ rigid positions, the newspaper writes. The White House is insisting on Iran’s complete denuclearization, including an end to uranium enrichment and the elimination of its stockpiles. Tehran, meanwhile, views its nuclear program as its only guarantee of survival. According to Kargin, Iran’s principal source of leverage remains the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause a surge in oil prices, while the United States’ leverage lies in strikes against Iran’s oil refining facilities. If the current diplomatic pause continues, military hostilities could resume even before the US congressional elections in November, Asatryan concluded. At the same time, the US-Iran dialogue risks being disrupted by developments in Lebanon, where the framework agreement signed on June 26 requires Beirut to disarm Hezbollah within 60 days in exchange for a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops. As a trial step, the IDF will conduct a limited withdrawal from two southern districts to test the Lebanese army’s ability to remove the group’s infrastructure. However, in Israel itself, halting strikes against Hezbollah is viewed as a mistake, deputy speaker of the Knesset and a lawmaker from the Yisrael Beiteinu party Evgeny Sova told Izvestia. "We have absolutely no optimism on this issue, so the success of this agreement will depend not on general statements but on results on the ground. The territory of southern Lebanon, south of the Litani River, must become a demilitarized zone, and there must be no Hezbollah members there, even under the guise of civilians," the politician emphasized. Media: NATO allies aim to restore unity at Ankara summit amid divisions over Ukraine Euro-Atlantic allies are finalizing preparations for NATO’s annual summit, which will open in Ankara on July 7 amid sharp divisions over Iran and Ukraine and the unresolved question of whether the United States will maintain its traditional leadership role within the alliance. Ahead of the summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a major policy address, called for the adoption of new approaches to regional and international security and for pursuing peace in Ukraine through negotiations. The central question in Ankara is expected to focus on whether Erdogan’s European guests will succeed in advancing an alternative agenda centered on abandoning dialogue with Moscow and expanding military assistance to Kiev. Ahead of the summit, Erdogan offered his country’s mediation services in efforts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, he expressed support for Turkey joining the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, an EU program under which, among other measures, weapons are supplied to the Ukrainian army. "Turkey’s intention to join SAFE, under which the Ukrainian army acquires weapons, apparently does not seem to be an obstacle to such mediation efforts to Erdogan," Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The Ankara summit, however, will generally be marked by the complex nature of the Turkish leader’s relations with various international actors. Turkey remains critically important to the West, as the Turkish military is one of NATO’s strongest armed forces, Europe cannot cope with the flow of illegal migrants from the Middle East without Turkey, and Ankara holds significant influence over conflicts in neighboring countries. At the same time, NATO, like the European Union, presents itself primarily as an alliance of democratic states. Yet, under Erdogan, Turkey has continued to move further away from democratic values, the newspaper added. The country is currently discussing reports that the 72-year-old president may soon announce early presidential elections in which he intends to run. Against this backdrop, the Turkish leader is putting forward his mediation efforts under difficult political circumstances. It appears that Erdogan, as has often been the case in Turkey ahead of elections, intends to revitalize the country’s long-stalled European integration agenda as much as possible, an objective that still enjoys considerable support among Turkish voters. Should tangible progress be made in that direction, it could create challenges for the Ukrainian leadership, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. "The collapse of the Istanbul peace process remains a deeply embedded thorn for the Turkish leadership, which, judging by its recent statements, will undoubtedly raise this issue with its allies at the alliance summit in Ankara and attempt to reassert its leadership role in the peace process following the United States’ apparent departure from the ‘spirit of Anchorage’ and the suspension of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations mediated by Washington," Kommersant writes. Given that Erdogan’s guests will include not only Donald Trump, but also a large group of European leaders, the key question surrounding the upcoming NATO summit could be whether the European participants can persuade the Turkish host to support their alternative agenda on Ukraine. Izvestia: EU faces difficulty in reaching consensus on 21st sanctions package against Russia The European Union failed to approve its latest package of anti-Russian sanctions before the end of Cyprus’ presidency of the Council of the European Union. A new attempt to pass the 21st sanctions package will most likely take place during the meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council on July 13. The proposed sanctions are currently being considered at both the technical and diplomatic levels, a European source told Izvestia. However, Bulgaria has voiced opposition to certain provisions. Experts believe that the approval of the 21st sanctions package could be delayed, although in any event it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Russian economy. The list of countries expressing reservations could expand. Slovakia is currently holding negotiations on the new sanctions package against Russia and will determine its position once those discussions are complete, deputy speaker of the Slovak parliament Tibor Gaspar told Izvestia. "The Slovak Republic considers each sanctions package proposal individually and supports only those measures that are effective, coordinated and, at the same time, do not cause disproportionate harm to the legitimate interests of the Slovak Republic," the politician noted. Alisa Kazelko, member of the Russian Export Control Association and an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club, told Izvestia that negotiations on the 21st package will resume from July 1 under Ireland’s presidency of the Council of the European Union. In her opinion, European countries will once again attempt to finalize the sanctions by July 15, as the bloc is due to review the price cap on Russian oil by that date. At the same time, Dublin fully follows the EU’s anti-Russian policy, making it unlikely that its presidency will bring any changes. The next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council is planned for July 13. A European diplomatic source told Izvestia that the 21st sanctions package is being reviewed at both the technical and diplomatic levels, but no specific date for its approval has yet been set. Smaller European countries, along with a significant number of Central and Eastern European states, are actively pushing for additional restrictions against Russia. However, the unanimity required to endorse the measures has not been achieved, meaning that the timeline for adopting the new sanctions package could be postponed, according to Egor Sergeyev, senior research fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Kommersant: Russia warns of risks posed by NATO initiative to develop new strike weapons Russian authorities have drawn attention to a NATO program, organized in cooperation with Ukraine, to develop weapons capable of disrupting military airfields on the territory of an enemy state. The documentation makes it clear that Russia is the intended target. The organizers seek systems capable of causing large-scale and long-lasting damage on Russian air bases, including those located deep inside the country’s territory, while operating in environments affected by electronic warfare, without GPS signals, and under all weather conditions, Kommersant writes. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said NATO was "losing the last remnants of rationality and moving into a zone of heightened risk." On June 29, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement "regarding NATO’s anti-Russian plans to develop advanced weapons systems for the benefit of the Kiev regime." The ministry pointed to a NATO competition for advanced weapons systems designed to achieve the "persistent denial of enemy airfield operations" in order to bring about a "fundamental degradation of the enemy’s air campaign." "Based on the description of the competition, NATO officials appear to want to select proposals from a range of ambitious young startups by early September that would be suitable for funding and development into prototypes," Alexander Ermakov, research fellow at the Center for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Kommersant. "Presumably, if someone succeeds in attracting the customer’s interest, the project will receive funding as part of Western military assistance packages for Ukraine, and the resulting systems will then be delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces," he added. In his assessment, although the authors of the technical solicitation use broad terminology and encourage participants to demonstrate "creativity," the outcome will most likely be a mass-produced one-way attack drone or a low-cost cruise missile. "Overall, this is certainly an important area. However, at this stage it is a relatively limited-budget initiative. The organizers plan to distribute only €250,000 among the finalists of the paper selection phase this fall, and those funds are intended for building prototypes. Compared with NATO’s overall military assistance to Ukraine, even if we consider only the UAV sector, this program represents a very small share and is not substantially different from other initiatives," the expert noted. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: UK poised for leadership change as Burnham presents reform agenda Andy Burnham, the probable successor to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has pledged to pursue sweeping economic and political reforms focused on decentralizing power by expanding the authority of regional governments. Burnham is expected to assume the post without significant difficulty, as he currently faces no serious rivals for the position and none are expected to emerge in the near future. The longevity of his government will depend on whether he can manage the budget effectively and demonstrate that he is capable of governing more successfully than the opposition, which has criticized him for lacking a clear policy agenda. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe Burnham’s decentralization agenda could strengthen the UK economy if successful but would require costly investments with uncertain returns, while they see closer ties with the EU as more likely than renewed membership. Domestic policy served as the centerpiece of Burnham’s address outlining his prospective premiership. The former mayor of Manchester intends to reallocate powers among the central government, regional authorities and local administrations. UK media have suggested that the politician may also be considering the nationalization of key sectors of the country’s economy, such as the steel industry. Experts doubt whether Burnham’s decentralization plan can succeed. The concentration of the country’s capital and investment in London is a genuine problem, and addressing it would significantly strengthen the British economy. Nevertheless, developing other cities will require substantial investment, which could ultimately be wasted if the initiative fails, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Burnham also appears to be deliberately avoiding politically sensitive issues that could alienate parts of the electorate, including increased military spending and foreign policy. Based on his previous public statements, Burnham is also expected to seek closer ties with the European Union, although experts consider the United Kingdom’s return to EU membership highly unlikely. Elena Ananyeva, head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Burnham understands that opponents of rejoining the European Union remain numerous in Britain and has therefore recently refrained from emphasizing the issue. 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